Formerly home to League of
Nations, the imposing, high-ceilinged room has played host to many tense
peace negotiations over the decades. This week it was Libya's turn.
Representatives from the country's rival political factions sat beneath
Spanish artist José Maria Sert's sepia-coloured murals depicting humankind progress as they negotiated face-to-face for only 2nd time in an almost year-long dialogue.
That
process, aimed at ending the political power struggle at the heart of a
civil war that has raged since summer last year, has been grindingly
slow and at times has shown signs of petering out completely. But
diplomats insist these efforts to agree a national unity government are only way to bring Libya back from chaos into which it has
descended.
Four years after the
ousting of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya finds itself torn between two
govts, two parliaments and two army chiefs.
In eastern town of Baida sits internationally recognised government of prime minister Abdullah al-Thinni, appointed by parliament elected in a June 2014 ballot and which is based in Tobruk.
In eastern town of Baida sits internationally recognised government of prime minister Abdullah al-Thinni, appointed by parliament elected in a June 2014 ballot and which is based in Tobruk.
Both Thinni's government and that parliament support anti-Islamist offensive launched in May 2014 by controversial general Khalifa Haftar and backed by Egypt and UAE. In Tripoli, a self-declared "national salvation" government holds sway backed by a militia alliance known as Libya Dawn, which drove rival Haftar-aligned militias from the capital last summer.
In
post-Gaddafi Libya, political and military alliances are more often
than not very loosely constructed marriages of convenience.
The
two broad camps of political and armed factions that formed last summer
have now fractured considerably, making it even more difficult to find a
solution to the crisis.
There is also the question of who is truly representative in a country where the constellation of militias that emerged during and after the 2011 uprising wield more power than government officials or elected representatives.
Libyans sceptical of UN-facilitated dialogue process argue that those meeting in Geneva - a mix of MPs from the two rival parliaments, civil society figures and leaders of political parties - have little real influence on the dynamics on the ground. But others say that while a national unity government - if it happens - will only be the first step towards getting Libya's derailed transition back on track, the very fact that Libyan political figures of opposing views are talking to each other is something.
There is also the question of who is truly representative in a country where the constellation of militias that emerged during and after the 2011 uprising wield more power than government officials or elected representatives.
Libyans sceptical of UN-facilitated dialogue process argue that those meeting in Geneva - a mix of MPs from the two rival parliaments, civil society figures and leaders of political parties - have little real influence on the dynamics on the ground. But others say that while a national unity government - if it happens - will only be the first step towards getting Libya's derailed transition back on track, the very fact that Libyan political figures of opposing views are talking to each other is something.
The country's
experiment in democracy after more than four decades of Gaddafi's
iron-fisted rule has been marked by zero-sum politics and an almost
complete lack of consensus. Learning the art of compromise is taking
time.
Britain's special envoy to
Libya, Jonathan Powell, often draws on his experience as Tony Blair's
chief negotiator in the Northern Ireland peace process when assessing
the latest twists and turns of the Libyan crisis.
The
two main factors that made the Good Friday Agreement possible - a
recognition that there was no military solution to the conflict plus the
existence of leaders that could deliver their respective communities -
are currently absent in the Libyan context.
Too
many key players in Libya still delude themselves that they can prevail
militarily. There is a dearth of real leaders. Power is diffuse in
post-Gaddafi Libya and the influence of even prominent figures can ebb
and flow dramatically depending on developments on the ground.
The
price of not resolving the political crisis is high. With the country
split between rival political and armed factions propping up two
governments vying for power, oil-rich Libya's economy is increasingly
under pressure. Low oil production, combined with plummeting global
energy prices, has forced the central bank to eat into its reserves.
Bank officials and foreign diplomats warn reserves could be depleted
within a year or so.
Tackling that
fiscal gap presents a major challenge, as oil exports are not expected
to recover significantly any time soon. Most of Libya's budget is
allocated to public sector salaries (a quarter of Libyans - most adults -
receive a state salary) and generous subsidies on fuel and food.
Cutting
either risks further stoking public discontent, and could even trigger
social unrest. A further complication is the fact fighters on both sides
of the current conflict are on the state pay roll.
Furthermore,
a range of actors, from Isil militants to human smugglers and
separatists bent on establishing their own state in eastern Libya, see
opportunity in the current chaos. Without a unity government, UN envoy
Bernardino Leon has argued repeatedly, Libya will remain paralysed and
unable to deal with the threat posed by DAESH (Isil) or the challenge of masses
of refugees and migrants slipping through its porous borders on their
way to Europe. Leon says he wants to see an agreement for a unity
government by 1st week September but many are sceptical.
No comments:
Post a Comment