What new Libya? Many, or none: in such a fluid situation, every judgment depends on the observer's visual, and the parameters used by the analyst. In fact, those that would seem at first reading of the news, in fact they are not. These developments were widely expected.
It might surprise you, but that also applies to the attack near Sabratha by USAF F-15 started from UK base. Again there is only this time the targeted attack was done with two fighter jets instead of drones. It 'a clear sign that the intelligence that allies are waging a long time on the territory on the ground and from air (but also from the sea) is beginning to bear fruit and reliable target was of significant interest.
Interesting is the ex-post cooperation of the local municipalities, obviously glad to see that someone is trying to dislodge some unwanted guests. It 'a good signal too, which means the real state of mind of ordinary Libyans. Even in Libya, apparently they are better than the politicians who claim to represent them.
At the moment, then, the misfortune of a headlong rush of the three actors more pawing seems averted, but there is also fully aware that if the internal agreement delays, someone might get tired and take action.
But only against IS. And 'more than obvious, now, about two parallel agendas, which, however, interfere and delay the process: an internal and other international.
The interior is carried out by Libyan actors, and international by UN, under pressure from the "magnificent three" US, UK with Italy that looks and moves with apprehension, to understand what will actually be the role for which,
Italy a bit in the dark, but self candidate.
The two agendas have goals or better to say priorities, different from each other.
The first tends to solve the puzzle of the new government, which the Presidency Council has already laid out in a reduced size (13 ministers and 5 secretaries of state) and submitted to the parliament in Tobruk.
We will know in the next few days, after solution of so-called "Haftar node". the second is pressed by the urgency to launch a major Peace-keeping (the one that should be entrusted to the coordination of Italy) operation, giving at the same time (or perhaps before) a strong increase for IS struggle and at the same time, contain the flow of migrants to Europe
Fortress Europe. A huge task that in our opinion, will be Afghanistan type.
The UN cliché, unfortunately, seems to always be the same, considered good for every situation.
Hopefully, at least, that the result is always the same. Where’s Italy? Anxiously waits, knowing that, whatever happens, sooner or later have to take its role of responsibility for which has been proposed.
Certainly, our military will have already prepared a number of intervention modules, good for anything: their task is to always be prepared, plan and provide policy-makers feasible options and supportable with our resources.
This process requires Defense Supreme Council meeting with President of Italy due on 25.2.16 which could be the first step.
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