Libya’s game of thrones—its internal political struggle— is
undermining its ability to rebuild its economy and government. The key
to its future success is contingent on two things—security and one
government. Both will be difficult to achieve, but both are necessary
if Libya is to turn the page on its present state of crisis.
The once
promising effort to build a unified national government marked by the
2012 elections, and US and international support for institution
building, fell apart. In 2014 the Libyan government split into two main
political factions. The Islamist-led Libya Dawn coalition took over
Tripoli, and the House of Representatives (HoR) backed by the forces of
“Operation Dignity,” the anti-Islamist campaign of General Khalifa
Hiftar, moved to the East of Libya in Tobruk. A third Libyan
government, the internationally recognized Government of National Accord
(GNA)—a body that reflects an agreement made last December with the
help of the United Nations—has begun to establish itself in Tripoli and
seeks to build consensus among the opposing Libyan governments.
Trying,
however, is not succeeding. The GNA has international support, but it
lacks domestic backing, particularly from the HoR and General Hiftar. In
an interview in early July of this year, said the UN “is trying to
impose and unworkable agreement on the country’s factions that is
‘screwing up’ the political process...”
The debate moves from the political to the economic when considering the fight over Libya’s oil resources. The
Libyan National Oil Company (NOC) called on rival Libyan factions—the
Libyan National Army (LNA) led by General Hiftar and the Petroleum
Facilities Guard (PFG)—to stop fighting in and around the Libyan oil
terminal in the port of Zueitina. The PFG agreed to help the GNA
reopen the port in order to assist the sagging Libyan oil industry.
This did not sit well with the LNA, which believes it should control
these facilities. The loser in this battle is the NOC and the Libyan
economy.
The situation
is further exacerbated by the fact that a tug of war continues over the
fate of key Libyan institutions—the NOC, the Libyan Investment Authority
and the Central Bank of Libya. There needs to be GNA support and
oversight of all three. This should include backing of unified and
competent management in these institutions, as well as consolidating
leadership to make them more effective and efficient. These
institutions can provide the foundation for the rebuilding of Libya.
The battle
between the GNA and the HoR was also evident when the GNA asked the
United States to assist in its effort to get ISIS out of the Libyan city
of Sirte. The HoR is reported to have once again taken issue with the GNA making a request it considers to be within its purview.
The US conducted airstrikes in support of the GNA and its allies’
fight against ISIS. Getting rid of ISIS is a goal the HoR shares with
the GNA, but even so it protested the request because it did not make
it. While the battle against ISIS is progressing, it could unravel
without a united Libyan front and help from the outside. If ISIS decides to move elsewhere in less populated areas of Libya, it will be harder to eliminate.
Critics of the
UN deal that established the GNA said there needed to be consensus
within Libya before a new government could be established. While that
certainly makes sense, the reality is that was not going to happen
unless the UN, backed by the US and the EU, pushed the deal forward.
There has been an effort to pull together various Libyan factions for
some time, and the UN December conference establishing the GNA was a do
or die moment.
The Libyan
economy is failing. Its GDP contracted by 6% in 2015 after a
contraction of 23.5% in 2014. Inflation increased from 2.4% in 2014 to
8.6% in 2015, and is expected to increase to 9.6% in 2016. Oil
production is down dramatically following a high in the immediate
aftermath of the Gadhafi government. The economic future is grim if the
fight over who’s in charge of Libya continues to deteriorate.
ISIS is only
part of the security problem. Ansar al-Sharia and other terrorist
groups pose a threat to Libyan security. Criminal gangs, which operate
across Libya, and smuggle everything from drugs, to guns, to people are
another threat. In addition, Libya is awash in militias which have
their own agendas not necessarily tied to backing a national government.
At best Libya
has a steep climb ahead of it, even if it is able to pull together and
back a single government. If it does not, the future is perilous. The
international community needs to reengage with Libya at a higher level.
Libya is not Syria, and could over time pull itself together, but it
will take a sustained effort on the part of the Libyan people, as well
as the international community, particularly the US, EU and UN.
The request by
the GNA for US airstrikes and the involvement of US special operations
forces with the Libyan effort to rid itself of ISIS, could be a positive
step forward on two levels— it helps with the battle against ISIS and
it could enhance the GNA’s standing, internationally as well as
domestically. The GNA solution to Libya’s governmental game of thrones
battle may not be perfect, but it is the best one available at the
moment.
The present
involvement of the US military in the fight against ISIS in Libya could
be a gateway to a larger opportunity for aiding Libya. Specifically,
the US could make it clear that helping Libya is a priority, and that
all necessary resources and attention will be focused on getting Libya
on track. This would mean putting Libya on a par with Syria, and having
the Secretary of State organize a follow up conference to the December
UN conference, bringing the relevant parties together to deal with the
impasse on support for the GNA.
In addition,
AFRICOM should intensify its coordination of US, EU and regional efforts
to fight ISIS in Libya. At the same time, AFRICOM should coordinate an
international response on how to deal with Libyan security issues: the
militias, the need for a unified Libyan national security structure and
how to deal with Libya’s criminal underground.
Finally, the US
and EU, possibly through the G20, should call together international
organizations, including the World Bank, IMF, regional development
banks, the UN and the OECD to produce a plan to help Libya with its
economy and governance issues as impetus for Libyans to get behind one
government. Given the threat of ISIS, the dramatic decline of the
Libyan economy since the collapse of the Gadhafi government, and
heightened regional tension, support for a renewed effort to help Libya
could work.
Ultimately, any
hope for change is up to the Libyan people, but the US can and should
take even more of a leading role in making this happen. It is in our
interest both as part of the global fight against ISIS, as well as the
effort to create a more secure environment in the Middle East and North
Africa. President Obama has indicated that not following up
sufficiently to help Libya after the fall of Gadhafi is one of his
biggest national security regrets. Helping Libya now establish a new
foundation for stability could be a moment of redemption.
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