Sunday, 12 February 2017

LIBYA PICTURE 12.2.2017


Armed carousels, militia influx, impatience with the United Nations and popular discontent. In Tripoli there is a brazier burning under the ashes of the revolution ready to inflame souls and soldiers, a handful of days dall'anniversario of 17 February 2011, the beginning of the Libyan spring. Perceptions and facts, such as "dropped" bloc in the capital of Libya's fledgling National Guard, the muscle of the police evidence Rada, clashes between brigades, and uncertainty about the future. Fears that the US State Department endorses a statement in which they expressed "serious concern" for the meet in the Libyan capital of means of "so-called LNG."  "A deployment that could further destabilize the already fragile security in Tripoli, "warns Foggy Bottom renewing the invitation" to support the process of political reconciliation under the GNA" and "pledging to oversee the transition to a new government through peaceful elections" in 'area of ​​Skhirat agreements.
The climate of tension, however, is the son of the Agreements of December 2015, sponsored by the UN that led to the appointment of Fayez al-Sarraj head of the national accord government. Gna he is struggling with a difficult process of internal stabilization and in an unlikely dialogue with Cyrenaica, increasingly autonomous fiefdom of Khalifa Haftar. "Sarraj is likely to have its day," says Othman Bensasi, former political adviser to former Prime Minister Ali Zeidan. "When he arrived he promised stability in 90 days, it's been over a year and nothing has happened, he cannot spend the money in the budget because it has no key ministers, people are tired."
The weakness of the president comes from the fact that controls a small political group and a small force field. "In Libya, if you want to do something you have to control the military."
At present there are 38 armed groups in Tripoli, one of the strongest three is with Sarraj while three support Ghwell Khalifa, a former prime minister and rival of the prime minister. These in turn control other groups scattered throughout the territory patchy.  
Then there are the Islamists by either party, such as the Mufti Sheikh Sadeq al-Gharyani with Ghwell, and the brigades Kara close to Sarraj. The common matrix is ​​therefore porous sides of the border, facilitating a riverside exchange for belief or convenience. The groups then have links with groups in other cities, which poses a risk of confrontation amplification. This fluidity paradoxically made it possible to avoid another conflict, but it is a balance guaranteed by the presence of so many and such weapons in circulation, thus labile. Even the hypothesis of Sarraj-Haftar dialogue advocated by Martin Kobler, is considered unfair because they are different creatures: the first political, military second.The UN has failed in setting, believe in many, primarily in having parachuted Sarraj in Tripoli without putting him in a position to acquire concrete contents and win domestic legitimacy. "It is not the first time that Libya will focuses on orphans characters consent and emptied of power - says Bensasi former member of the National Transitional Council and now director of the Department of Labour -. It was a mistake to rely on people like Kobler and Leon. " Sarraj is now engaged in a race against time to gather outside the force required to penetrate the domestic level, as evidenced by the signed agreements for migrants in Italy and Europe, and diplomatic and trade mission to Turkey (whose long hand often behind certain movements of internal troops to Libya and beyond). A race to avoid having to take the sea route by which he had arrived a year ago arriving at the base of Abu Sitta.A hypothesis favored by a growing number of people in Tripoli, some of which call for a dialogue between the military Ghwell, who is recovering control of forces in the field, and Haftar. And which shows cut off the UN in respect of whom a growing impatience after the appointment of Salam Fayyad.
The hostility towards the Palestinians is known in Libya, because of the easy kindergartens that Gaddafi gave them - to annoy Arab powers rivals and facilitate the anti-Israeli propaganda - creating colonies poorly tolerated. Libya also feels far from the Middle East, emphasizes Bensasi: "What help can give those who for 70 years failed to solve his problems?".

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