NEWS FROM LIBYA 7.1.2018
Tensions remain high in southern Tripoli following recent clashes.
Clashes in Sabratah appear to be approaching an end. However, the AIOR supported by the LNA could decide to pursue retreating troops and take control of more territory.
A large IS attack in Misrata is likely to elicit a strong response from Misratan militia groups against IS locations. The incident also demonstrates current IS capabilities and intent to target iconic targets with CPX attacks.
Tensions remain elevated along the Zuwara, Sabratah and Zawiyah coastal areas due to a number of issues including a complex security environment involving fuel smuggling and people trafficking.
Medium to long term outlook
The unveiling of a UN sponsored action plan, aimed at resolving the crisis in Libya, is expected to see long term changes in the political and security landscape in the country. Efforts will be made to return all stakeholders to the discussions and push forward a national political constitution. Presidential and Parliamentary elections will be prepared for late-2018.
GNA President Serraj and LNA Commander Khalifa Haftar, remain central to international stakeholders’ attempts to unify east and west. However, alternative solutions are being pursued by other entities with opposing factions. As factions move closer to a possible deal, tensions are likely to increase inside Libya, and there is potential for some level of fragmentation of their support bases. As a result, new alliances may be formed as progress leaves some with reducing levels of influence.
The remnants of the GNC, which has allegedly benefited from Qatari support, remain politically isolated after losing their footprint in the capital at the end of May. Their last attempt to take territory in the capital by force failed when their fighters were forced from Garabuli on July 11, and support appears to be waning. The threat is assessed to be evolving as the GNC, and associated forces adapt to the changing environment. While intent is assessed to remain, especially for the hardliners, tactics may alter.
There are indications that IS is beginning to regroup in Libya. Some reports suggest fighters from Iraq and Syria are heading to North Africa. The group is reported to be present in some areas south of Sirte, Bani Waled, and Sabratah.
SIGNIFICANT EVENTS
Governance
Stage one of LPD meetings in Tunis, aimed at agreeing amendments to the LPA, have concluded. The amendments will now be discussed within the HoR and HCS before the committees return in a week from now to begin stage two.
Basit Igtet has responded to allegations that he is closely linked to extremist groups by stating that he does not belong to any particular party. He espouses a moderate Muslim approach and pledges to restore the Libyan identity.
Airport security measures at Matiga Airport in Tripoli are currently high. International staff passing through the airport has been asked to show additional identification cards and handover mobile phones for examination.
Security
IS militants launched a complex attack on the Misrata Courts Complex on October 04 involving IEDs and SAF. Four people were killed and around 40 wounded. A VBIED was used in the attack but it did not detonate.
Two elders involved in the national reconciliation process have been shot and killed as they were driving from Mizdah to Bani Waleed. The attacks caused outrage in several areas of the country.
Heavy fighting has continued in Sabratah this week. The LNA has provided support to the Anti-IS Operations Room and, at time of writing, it appears that the group has taken complete control of Sabratah city.
Clashes occurred in Tripoli between Nawasi Bde and Tripoli Revolutionaries’ Brigade (TRB) forces. The situation appears to be resolved in the short term but clashes could reignite in the future.
Basit Igtet has arranged further demonstrations, including another protest in Martyrs’ Square, Tripoli on October 20.
Clashes occurred in southern Tripoli (mainly Qaser Bin Ghashir) involving TRB with al-Kani fighters against a group associated with the former regime.
A vehicle, carrying medical supplies for the International Committee of the Red Cross, was hijacked traveling through Zawiyah towards Sabratah. The vehicle was stolen and the driver assaulted.
Officials in Sabha have threated to close down the Sharara and El Feel oilfields and the GMMR if fuel supplies are not delivered to the area by the weekend.
Benghazi Port officially reopened on October 01.
Oil and gas
Sharara oilfield closed this week following demands from an armed group, involved in guarding the site. The site resumed production on October 04.
The head of the National Oil Corporation has called for the criminalization of groups that disrupt oil production by blocking sites or turning off pipelines.
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