The West is showing a moderate lack of interest in chaos that reigns in Libya. Italy, former colonial power, sees its politicians screwed into a debate on the provincial division of migrants, while on its doorstep risks unleashing chaos. Europe, primarily German "engine", has an eye to east, to Ukraine, and has proven so far to consider Libyan issue as a priority. USA, since the days of the revolution against Gaddafi, have tried to keep a tight angle. This carelessness threatens to wreak havoc, not only for Libya itself or on only Mediterranean countries, but the entire European continent.
It is news a few days ago the conquest by Isis of some strategic positions (in particular a power station) near Sirte, a city strategically close to oil wells and from February contention among men in black of Caliphate and militias - loyal to the Islamist government of Tripoli - Misurata. " Islamic State is taking advantage of situation of serious disintegration of the country," says Leandro Di Natala, researcher of European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center. "For now, still encounters more trouble here than in the scenario Syrian-Iraqi, because in Libya there is the sectarian strife between Sunnis and Shiites that advantage, and why not having - I repeat, for now - access to specific resources, such as oil wells, can not deliver social services (and bribes) to the tribes and the people to buy the support. " Also, but in this situation is not dissimilar to that in Syria, there is an ongoing feud between groups affiliated to the Caliphate and groups linked to al Qaeda. A few days ago a Derna, based Isis in Libya, Caliph's men assassinated the leader of the brigades Majlis al Shura, group Al Qaeda with which they share control of the city, and was followed by violent clashes with dozens of deaths.
These difficulties, while it slowed down the advance of Islamic State, did not prevent it to take advantage of anarchy in which it struggles the country, divided between the Islamist government of Tripoli (close to the Muslim Brotherhood and supported by Turkey and Qatar) and to Tobruk (internationally recognized and strongly supported by Egypt's General Al Sisi), crossed by tribal clashes, a widespread crime and heavily armed. "The bond between terrorist groups and common criminals is very dangerous," continued Di Natala. "The Islamic State probably already can count, as a funding source, illegal immigration, demanding bribes, and some of the profits to criminal organizations that exploit human trafficking. If governments of Tobruk and Tripoli will not find an agreement quickly the situation could further deteriorate: Libya could become a "sanctuary" for terrorists, a place where finance - then yes thanks to oil as well as immigration - , train and plan terrorist attacks against Tunisia, Egypt and even Europe. Do not think, however, that terrorists arrive with boat - hypothesis theoretically possible but highly unlikely for the risks of sea crossing and after-care - much more realistically take a trip or are activated after being already in Italy and have radicalized over the internet. "
But Tobruk and Tripoli seem a long way from an agreement. Even recently, as part of the peace talks in Morocco, representatives of the internationally recognized government have rejected the agreement proposed by the UN representative, Bernardino Leon. Tobruk complains of being penalized - the last draft agreement proposed - compared to Tripoli in the balance organs of the future who will govern the country, and general Haftar - chief of armed forces of legitimate government and iron allied Egypt - not accept being deprived of its role that would go instead to elected person . The final position expressed by the Government of Tobruk is still waiting for the end of talks, in the meantime moved to Berlin, to take an official position.
Feeling - according to several analysts - is that around Libyan case, two factions, simplifying, were created. The first is formed mainly by Western countries and especially in Europe. They want peace to bring under control - even with an EU mission that serves UN endorsement, however, that will not come without agreement between Tripoli and Tobruk - immigration, prevent the advance and the roots of the Islamic State, and the re-integration Libyan oil wells. The second one fan the flames of a clash between the two governments in the country. This faction has a predominant role in the Cairo - probably backed by Saudi Arabia - which can count on the support of general internal Haftar. Egyptian President Al Sisi is in fact expansionist aims in Libya, is an ongoing struggle against the Muslim Brotherhood. The temptation to seize the moment of weakness of Erdogan - President turkish, sponsors of the Brotherhood in Libya and elsewhere in difficulties on the domestic front after the last election in which he lost the absolute majority - could be. From what is emerging from the peace talks under way it seems that the second faction is much more specific than the first.
"The West is clearly not doing enough. The tool to bring the parties to an agreement, "concluded Di Natala," is quite obvious: to guarantee both sides a huge financial gain from the sale of oil. Exports barrels collapsed while violent deaths are soaring. The faction that wants peace has plenty of arguments to be spent and yet it seems that the lack of interest prevail. This will benefit the criminals and the terrorists. " The suspicion that circulates in the environment is that the diplomatic front that does not want peace is much more extensive than it sounds: some Western states do not want to learn to take charge of the immigration issue intervening in Libya, although there was a government of national unity . Others then such and such substantial business with the Saudis - sponsor of Egypt - who might prefer to sabotage negotiations rather than see fade billion euro. Still others caress the idea to support Egypt's efforts and Haftar to annihilate Tripoli government and groups that support him to have in the future as a stable partner, although undemocratic, military dictatorship. Without a burst of commitment from the powers that peace should, hopes for peace are in short to a flicker.
It is news a few days ago the conquest by Isis of some strategic positions (in particular a power station) near Sirte, a city strategically close to oil wells and from February contention among men in black of Caliphate and militias - loyal to the Islamist government of Tripoli - Misurata. " Islamic State is taking advantage of situation of serious disintegration of the country," says Leandro Di Natala, researcher of European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center. "For now, still encounters more trouble here than in the scenario Syrian-Iraqi, because in Libya there is the sectarian strife between Sunnis and Shiites that advantage, and why not having - I repeat, for now - access to specific resources, such as oil wells, can not deliver social services (and bribes) to the tribes and the people to buy the support. " Also, but in this situation is not dissimilar to that in Syria, there is an ongoing feud between groups affiliated to the Caliphate and groups linked to al Qaeda. A few days ago a Derna, based Isis in Libya, Caliph's men assassinated the leader of the brigades Majlis al Shura, group Al Qaeda with which they share control of the city, and was followed by violent clashes with dozens of deaths.
These difficulties, while it slowed down the advance of Islamic State, did not prevent it to take advantage of anarchy in which it struggles the country, divided between the Islamist government of Tripoli (close to the Muslim Brotherhood and supported by Turkey and Qatar) and to Tobruk (internationally recognized and strongly supported by Egypt's General Al Sisi), crossed by tribal clashes, a widespread crime and heavily armed. "The bond between terrorist groups and common criminals is very dangerous," continued Di Natala. "The Islamic State probably already can count, as a funding source, illegal immigration, demanding bribes, and some of the profits to criminal organizations that exploit human trafficking. If governments of Tobruk and Tripoli will not find an agreement quickly the situation could further deteriorate: Libya could become a "sanctuary" for terrorists, a place where finance - then yes thanks to oil as well as immigration - , train and plan terrorist attacks against Tunisia, Egypt and even Europe. Do not think, however, that terrorists arrive with boat - hypothesis theoretically possible but highly unlikely for the risks of sea crossing and after-care - much more realistically take a trip or are activated after being already in Italy and have radicalized over the internet. "
But Tobruk and Tripoli seem a long way from an agreement. Even recently, as part of the peace talks in Morocco, representatives of the internationally recognized government have rejected the agreement proposed by the UN representative, Bernardino Leon. Tobruk complains of being penalized - the last draft agreement proposed - compared to Tripoli in the balance organs of the future who will govern the country, and general Haftar - chief of armed forces of legitimate government and iron allied Egypt - not accept being deprived of its role that would go instead to elected person . The final position expressed by the Government of Tobruk is still waiting for the end of talks, in the meantime moved to Berlin, to take an official position.
Feeling - according to several analysts - is that around Libyan case, two factions, simplifying, were created. The first is formed mainly by Western countries and especially in Europe. They want peace to bring under control - even with an EU mission that serves UN endorsement, however, that will not come without agreement between Tripoli and Tobruk - immigration, prevent the advance and the roots of the Islamic State, and the re-integration Libyan oil wells. The second one fan the flames of a clash between the two governments in the country. This faction has a predominant role in the Cairo - probably backed by Saudi Arabia - which can count on the support of general internal Haftar. Egyptian President Al Sisi is in fact expansionist aims in Libya, is an ongoing struggle against the Muslim Brotherhood. The temptation to seize the moment of weakness of Erdogan - President turkish, sponsors of the Brotherhood in Libya and elsewhere in difficulties on the domestic front after the last election in which he lost the absolute majority - could be. From what is emerging from the peace talks under way it seems that the second faction is much more specific than the first.
"The West is clearly not doing enough. The tool to bring the parties to an agreement, "concluded Di Natala," is quite obvious: to guarantee both sides a huge financial gain from the sale of oil. Exports barrels collapsed while violent deaths are soaring. The faction that wants peace has plenty of arguments to be spent and yet it seems that the lack of interest prevail. This will benefit the criminals and the terrorists. " The suspicion that circulates in the environment is that the diplomatic front that does not want peace is much more extensive than it sounds: some Western states do not want to learn to take charge of the immigration issue intervening in Libya, although there was a government of national unity . Others then such and such substantial business with the Saudis - sponsor of Egypt - who might prefer to sabotage negotiations rather than see fade billion euro. Still others caress the idea to support Egypt's efforts and Haftar to annihilate Tripoli government and groups that support him to have in the future as a stable partner, although undemocratic, military dictatorship. Without a burst of commitment from the powers that peace should, hopes for peace are in short to a flicker.
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