Libya, what will happen after rejection of Tobruk & Tripoli frm

frm http://formiche.net/2015/10/22/libia-negoziati-onu-tobruk-tripoli/ in Italian

 

stalemate in Libya continues, subject which was discussed yesterday in Italian Supreme Defence Council which met Head of State. After another stop to negotiations led UN envoy Bernardino León , the Spanish diplomat spoke Wednesday at a press conference in Tunis, before 1 day of the new expiry of its mandate. "There is no alternative," he said, in a government of national unity", warning that ''a minor group and people will not be able to hold this process as its hostage."

LAST STOP
The reference is to what happened in recent days, when both GNC (the old Parliament of Tripoli) and Tobruk Assembly (recognized b international community), have rejected UN proposal. An opposition that the diplomat believes instrumental, because parties, "have not been able to formulate any counter proposals", but expressed "a simple no."
ALARM OF ITALIAN SUPREME COUNCIL OF DEFENSE
Libyan chaos (and the risk of terrorist infiltration in our country) has been a major theme of last Supreme Defence Council held under the chairmanship of President oh Italy . During the summit, said today Corriere della Sera, has shown that we face "a framework of international relations and security in rapid and significant deterioration in areas very close to Italy and to Europe and the Near East ", mainly because of  Isis blacks drapes. "Major concerns", also notes the newspaper, directly addresses the "chaotic situation" that reigns in the former kingdom of Muammar Gaddafi. "Yesterday, Italian Supreme Council of Defence, it was clear ... the disappointment at the lack of peace" (because, still detects Nese, had already been chosen General Paolo Serra to play the military adviser role. Here his portrait ).
ANALYSIS Toaldo
For Mattia Toaldo, analyst at European Council on Foreign Relations in London, the line of León coincides with that of Rome. "The Leon conference," said to Formiche.net, "sent a signal similar to statements made ​​yesterday by Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni: the only option is that agreement. Given the expiration of its mandate, yesterday the House of Representatives, the Libyan government that will receive international recognition that will be released from the agreement, when there will be. Which means that without international recognition Tobruk cannot administer from now on Libya financial resources. "new situation, which could speed up negotiations''. "our Foreign Ministry," adds Toaldo, "has made clear that the decision of Parliament of Tobruk on Monday night was not really a vote against the agreement. The problem, however, is that from Tripoli to Tobruk armed groups are exerting pressures far too great for Members to vote freely ".
LEON PLAN
For the emissary, that unless new renewal of the mandate will be replaced soon by German Martin Kobler , the disappointment is high. His plan, noted Republic, provided "a Presidential Council" with the words "of designed PM, Fayez Sarraj , 3 deputy prime minister and two ministers of state. " But before new bankruptcy, Brussels and UN headquarters meditate now to apply alternative measures of economic nature, that force the factions to reach an agreement. "It is not clear," says the newspaper, "if parties approve the Libyan government" proposed, "in many meetings EU and UN for months to have addressed the issue of targeted sanctions against those who want to the failure of the peace plan ". However, before making such a drastic resolution in the coming days, UN will try again to find a "spontaneous", agreement as Leon explained  .
IN CASE OF AGREEMENT
Reign of Muammar Gaddafi, slipped into a civil war fuelled by violence and terrorism, alsoin consideration of uncertaintyfor future immediately after the agreement is reached. In this sense, the Libyan situation is closely monitored by EU and NATO. Monday, says to Ansa press agency, Federica Mogherini, chief diplomat in Brussels, she submitted to EU Political Committee for security and defense (COPS), a plan to support the country stabilization. "In 10 pages of explanatory information to the Member States - tells the news agency -, it was reiterated the package availability of 100 million € for a series of programs, which include aid to rebuild the public administration, but also for health and media. "In this EU document, commitments to security are timetabled in three different phases. At the very beginning after possible establishment of government of national unity, is expected to be UNSMIL to conduct initial coordination for security of international mission of assistance, if politically acceptable to Libyans, to be deployed. It remains the challenge of how to provide better support for Government of National Unity security in its first weeks of life. A third and final phase would consist of planning and implementation of long-term assets for the reform of the security sector, disarmament and demining. "Operational planning was entrusted to Italy''.
NATO PLAN While Atlantic Alliance, which at this time will exercise in Mediterranean in an anti Isis (also to send a signal to Moscow) operation, has faced in last summit also "challenges" concerning its South Side, which includes Libya. In particular, said the US Ambassador at NATO, Douglas Lute , "South and South East NATO is implementing efforts to work for defense capacity-building with Jordan and Iraq," and is "waiting to make same thing with North African state, when the political situation allows it." That is, when UN negotiation will produce the expected results.