UN thought it had a peace agreement on the 10th
October 2015 but that has since proved overly optimistic.
The latest round of peace talks were thought to have addressed all the problems that have arisen in several months of negotiations.
Unfortunately and most likely it did not.
UN is now demanding that Tripoli government get its dissident factions under control and agree to the terms for uniting the two governments or else. The UN wants the two governments to merge and then use their combined forces to deal with ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and other groups threatening the economy (especially oil shipments) and the country in general.
UN is unlikely to completely give up on Libya as the recent deadline is ignored and the two rival governments know it. Next deadline is 20th October .
Main motivation the two governments have to merge is the growing likelihood that there will soon be mass starvation and even more chaos, death and people fleeing the country. Libya is running out of cash and options but still has plenty of factions willing to risk more damage in an effort to get their way.
The violence since 2011 has left over 32,000 dead and a fourth of the population has fled the country, most of them to neighboring Tunisia.
Most of people who left their country are the educated and talented Libyans, the country needs most. This has made it difficult for the Tripoli and Tobruk governments to find qualified people to fill senior posts.
The UN thought it had a peace agreement on the 8th October but that has since proved overly optimistic. The current round of peace talks were thought to have addressed all the problems that have arisen in several months of negotiations.
It did not.
UN is now demanding that the Tripoli government get its dissident factions under contr0l and agree to the terms for uniting the two governments or else. The UN wants the two governments to merge and then use their combined forces to deal with ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and other groups threatening the economy (especially oil shipments) and the country in general. The UN is unlikely to completely give up on Libya as the recent deadline is ignored and the two rival governments know it.
Main motivation the two governments have to merge is the growing likelihood that there will soon be mass starvation and even more chaos, death and people fleeing the country. Libya is running out of cash and options but still has plenty of factions willing to risk more damage in an effort to get their way.
The violence since 2011 has left over 32,000 dead and a fourth of the population has fled the country, most of them to neighboring Tunisia.
The people most likely to leave are the educated and talented Libyans the country needs most. This has made it difficult for the Tripoli and Tobruk governments to find qualified people to fill senior posts.
Situation has gotten so bad that Tobruk government PM complains of being forced to serve and not being allowed (by the military) to leave Libya, even for official business. That mass flight was made easier because about 85 percent of Libya's six million people live along the coast. Some five percent are still nomadic. Other minorities comprise about six percent of the population. 100 percent of the population speaks Arabic and 98 percent are Sunni Moslems.
The Berber are Sunni but were never big on Islamic radicalism. Kaddafi saw the Berbers as a threat because they were not Arab and had, for over a thousand years, resisted Arab domination.
The fighting has interfered with oil exports and without that income the country is broke.
The country needs peace so that the oil facilities, the central bank and the network of government offices that pay government employees and import goods for distribution to most Libyans can function.
While not all Libyans support any one government or leader, most do support restoration of the Kaddafi era welfare system and the oil revenues that paid for it. This was an efficient way to distribute the oil income so that most Libyans benefitted from it. During the decades of Kaddafi rule Libyans became dependent on these benefits and are angry at anyone who is harming this system. The Islamic terrorist militias sense they are facing a real threat because of the widespread hostility they face from Libyans concerned about surviving without the oil income.
Another things that annoys most Libyans is the lack of unity among the Islamic terrorist groups, each of whom considers themselves the anointed (by God) leader of an Islamic renaissance.
This is a common pattern and the resulting feuds and outright wars between Islamic terrorist factions is a major reason why these groups rarely achieve much success. Too many of these Islamic terror groups are willing to interfere with, or even ban, free food sent in by foreign aid groups. Thus the locals see these holy warriors sending Libya straight to hell on earth.
Militias affiliated with ISIL are generally opposed to any peace deal that does not involve everyone agreeing to ISIL ruling all of Libya. Most other Islamic terror groups are at least open to negotiations and some kind of deal.
The country is running out of money with which to buy food and other essentials. Some 85 percent of the $67 billion the government has currently is frozen and the $10 billion that is available will be gone by mid-2016 if the two rival governments (UN recognized Tobruk and the previous one in Tripoli) do not agree to merge.
About 25 percent of the six million people left in Libya are in danger of injury from the violence or lack of food and other supplies. Many of these people have been driven from the homes and some are living in tents. A growing number have given up and fled the country.
Oil production is up to 350,000 barrels a day, which is 25 percent of the pre-revolution total of 1.7 million barrels.
At current prices that would bring in $23 billion a year, enough for the country to survive on but not live as comfortably as they did when oil was selling for more than twice what it does now. Since 2011 the violence has not hurt the oil fields and the oil reserves (still in the ground) stands at 77 billion barrels (plus the equivalent of ten percent more in the form of natural gas).
Even if production returned to 2011 levels there would still be a problem with the price of oil, which has fallen by more than half since 2012 because of worldwide overproduction.
Another things that annoys most Libyans is the lack of unity among the Islamic terrorist groups, each of whom considers themselves the anointed (by God) leader of an Islamic renaissance. This is a common pattern and the resulting feuds and outright wars between Islamic terrorist factions is a major reason why these groups rarely achieve much success. Too many of these Islamic terror groups are willing to interfere with, or even ban, free food sent in by foreign aid groups. Thus the locals see these holy warriors sending Libya straight to hell on earth. Militias affiliated with ISIL are generally opposed to any peace deal that does not involve everyone agreeing to ISIL ruling all of Libya. Most other Islamic terror groups are at least open to negotiations and some kind of deal.
The country is running out of money with which to buy food and other essentials. Some 85 percent of the $67 billion the government has currently is frozen and the $10 billion that is available will be gone by mid-2016 if the two rival governments (UN recognized Tobruk and the previous one in Tripoli) do not agree to merge. About 40 percent of the six million people left in Libya are in danger of injury from the violence or lack of food and other supplies. Many of these people have been driven from the homes and some are living in tents. A growing number have given up and fled the country.
The latest round of peace talks were thought to have addressed all the problems that have arisen in several months of negotiations.
Unfortunately and most likely it did not.
UN is now demanding that Tripoli government get its dissident factions under control and agree to the terms for uniting the two governments or else. The UN wants the two governments to merge and then use their combined forces to deal with ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and other groups threatening the economy (especially oil shipments) and the country in general.
UN is unlikely to completely give up on Libya as the recent deadline is ignored and the two rival governments know it. Next deadline is 20th October .
Main motivation the two governments have to merge is the growing likelihood that there will soon be mass starvation and even more chaos, death and people fleeing the country. Libya is running out of cash and options but still has plenty of factions willing to risk more damage in an effort to get their way.
The violence since 2011 has left over 32,000 dead and a fourth of the population has fled the country, most of them to neighboring Tunisia.
Most of people who left their country are the educated and talented Libyans, the country needs most. This has made it difficult for the Tripoli and Tobruk governments to find qualified people to fill senior posts.
The UN thought it had a peace agreement on the 8th October but that has since proved overly optimistic. The current round of peace talks were thought to have addressed all the problems that have arisen in several months of negotiations.
It did not.
UN is now demanding that the Tripoli government get its dissident factions under contr0l and agree to the terms for uniting the two governments or else. The UN wants the two governments to merge and then use their combined forces to deal with ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and other groups threatening the economy (especially oil shipments) and the country in general. The UN is unlikely to completely give up on Libya as the recent deadline is ignored and the two rival governments know it.
Main motivation the two governments have to merge is the growing likelihood that there will soon be mass starvation and even more chaos, death and people fleeing the country. Libya is running out of cash and options but still has plenty of factions willing to risk more damage in an effort to get their way.
The violence since 2011 has left over 32,000 dead and a fourth of the population has fled the country, most of them to neighboring Tunisia.
The people most likely to leave are the educated and talented Libyans the country needs most. This has made it difficult for the Tripoli and Tobruk governments to find qualified people to fill senior posts.
Situation has gotten so bad that Tobruk government PM complains of being forced to serve and not being allowed (by the military) to leave Libya, even for official business. That mass flight was made easier because about 85 percent of Libya's six million people live along the coast. Some five percent are still nomadic. Other minorities comprise about six percent of the population. 100 percent of the population speaks Arabic and 98 percent are Sunni Moslems.
The Berber are Sunni but were never big on Islamic radicalism. Kaddafi saw the Berbers as a threat because they were not Arab and had, for over a thousand years, resisted Arab domination.
The fighting has interfered with oil exports and without that income the country is broke.
The country needs peace so that the oil facilities, the central bank and the network of government offices that pay government employees and import goods for distribution to most Libyans can function.
While not all Libyans support any one government or leader, most do support restoration of the Kaddafi era welfare system and the oil revenues that paid for it. This was an efficient way to distribute the oil income so that most Libyans benefitted from it. During the decades of Kaddafi rule Libyans became dependent on these benefits and are angry at anyone who is harming this system. The Islamic terrorist militias sense they are facing a real threat because of the widespread hostility they face from Libyans concerned about surviving without the oil income.
Another things that annoys most Libyans is the lack of unity among the Islamic terrorist groups, each of whom considers themselves the anointed (by God) leader of an Islamic renaissance.
This is a common pattern and the resulting feuds and outright wars between Islamic terrorist factions is a major reason why these groups rarely achieve much success. Too many of these Islamic terror groups are willing to interfere with, or even ban, free food sent in by foreign aid groups. Thus the locals see these holy warriors sending Libya straight to hell on earth.
Militias affiliated with ISIL are generally opposed to any peace deal that does not involve everyone agreeing to ISIL ruling all of Libya. Most other Islamic terror groups are at least open to negotiations and some kind of deal.
The country is running out of money with which to buy food and other essentials. Some 85 percent of the $67 billion the government has currently is frozen and the $10 billion that is available will be gone by mid-2016 if the two rival governments (UN recognized Tobruk and the previous one in Tripoli) do not agree to merge.
About 25 percent of the six million people left in Libya are in danger of injury from the violence or lack of food and other supplies. Many of these people have been driven from the homes and some are living in tents. A growing number have given up and fled the country.
Oil production is up to 350,000 barrels a day, which is 25 percent of the pre-revolution total of 1.7 million barrels.
At current prices that would bring in $23 billion a year, enough for the country to survive on but not live as comfortably as they did when oil was selling for more than twice what it does now. Since 2011 the violence has not hurt the oil fields and the oil reserves (still in the ground) stands at 77 billion barrels (plus the equivalent of ten percent more in the form of natural gas).
Even if production returned to 2011 levels there would still be a problem with the price of oil, which has fallen by more than half since 2012 because of worldwide overproduction.
Another things that annoys most Libyans is the lack of unity among the Islamic terrorist groups, each of whom considers themselves the anointed (by God) leader of an Islamic renaissance. This is a common pattern and the resulting feuds and outright wars between Islamic terrorist factions is a major reason why these groups rarely achieve much success. Too many of these Islamic terror groups are willing to interfere with, or even ban, free food sent in by foreign aid groups. Thus the locals see these holy warriors sending Libya straight to hell on earth. Militias affiliated with ISIL are generally opposed to any peace deal that does not involve everyone agreeing to ISIL ruling all of Libya. Most other Islamic terror groups are at least open to negotiations and some kind of deal.
The country is running out of money with which to buy food and other essentials. Some 85 percent of the $67 billion the government has currently is frozen and the $10 billion that is available will be gone by mid-2016 if the two rival governments (UN recognized Tobruk and the previous one in Tripoli) do not agree to merge. About 40 percent of the six million people left in Libya are in danger of injury from the violence or lack of food and other supplies. Many of these people have been driven from the homes and some are living in tents. A growing number have given up and fled the country.
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