DAESH not just a terrorist group; It is a political project that aims to completely redesign the map of the Middle East. Project which sees Saudi Arabia in the cockpit but that involves all: Americans, Israelis, Turks and many others. Daesh has its roots in European colonialism.The
problem comes from Syrian-Iraqi state forms that were imposed in
the 20th century to a region that, historically, had none. This
problem is extended to the whole area Africa-Middle East-South Asia, which was created by a superimposition of state forms, there where
historically there have been caliphate and swarm of small kingdoms more
or less tribal.
Not only it imposed a form that had no reason to exist given the historical, cultural, political and especially religious traditions but the same breakdown, following the unilateral interests of the colonizers, it assembled pieces of incompatible populations and it divided into pieces peoples historically homogeneous.This real geopolitical disaster in Middle East, has name and precise date: the sharing-out agreement between France and Britain in 1916, negotiated between two diplomats who inserted their names, Sykes (UK) - Picot ( FRA), with equally destructive subsequent contributions. Next year it marks the anniversary of the century. This is the basis of the problem, but then on this basis in itself contradictory have added more contradictions during Second World War and following decades.This leads, with a load of puzzle pieces that have not been turned to fit together, the second US-Iraq war. Iraq was one of "most successful" masterpiece of British geographers and politicians: Kurds (non-Arab) Sunnis, with Sunni Arabs, with Arab and Iranian Shi'a. Sunni Arabs minority, in turn unnaturally separated from relatives located in adjoining Syria, Saddam had pressure cooker with his authoritarian Iraqi government.
This minority ruled over another minority, the Kurds, who had been denied a State previously promised by British as usual.
Kurds are now 30 to 40 million and they are in seven states in that portion of the geographical map with which we are familiar, although we Europeans are included in "Caucasian" race because there are our ancestral origins about 20 or 30,000 years ago.The Sunni Arab minority in Iraq then also ruled on a majority of Shiites, of mixed Arab-Iranian origin. Not only British invented a European type of state in an historical territory, Mesopotamia, which transcended class of only 10,000 years, but they did it, also, to give a sop reparation of another mess, arranged by British.
It is the legitimate (lawful according to Koran) Emir of Mecca and Medina, with whom they made an alliance using it to clear the Ottomans area, not only to fulfill the promises that they had to offset the regional efforts of the Arabs.
The sop was to deny the promised sovereignty on the Arabian Peninsula and Syria, but give the two children the sovereignty of two States, invented from scratch, what are Jordan, and Iraq.
Not only that, as a result, helps Al Saud family, which traditionally was in Mecca and Medina as Swiss are in Mediterranean, to supplant the legitimate descendants of Mohamad that were just in Mecca and Medina, inventing a third state: Saudi Arabia.
Al Saud helped giving himself a religious legitimacy (which did not exist) by referring to the pact between his ancestors and another illegitimate, some al-Wahab, from whom Wahabism followed as an extreme interpretation of the Koran which exists in Saudi Arabia only.When he jumped the lid of Iraq or Saddam pressure cooker, all these convoluted lines and disorderly forces took places and there originated a situation that is the premise to more recent history.
Of course Sykes-Picot disasters is then also entire Israel-Palestine story, but, readers, already tangled with the Syrian-Iraqi one, saves it for next time.
Moreover, in the unfortunate design of sand boxes in Middle East braided with oil and with the aftermath of United Arab Republic (an attempt to lay union between Egypt, Syria and Yemen, from which Ba'th party stemmed with its governments in Syria and Iraq); Americans arrived, Russians became Soviet and then new Russians, Ottomans became Turks, Israel became a regional power and atomic Iranians became a Shi'a Islamic republic, aspiring nuclear power.
Daesh roots are in all that.
Daesh is a tripartite entity. His skeleton is Sunni minority in Iraq elite, coming from Saddam army, secret services and police.
This is its local infrastructure and military. On this skeleton was formed muscles and organs from various types of adherents to radical Islam (Salafists, jihadists, Wahhabis etc.) from all over Muslim world.
Its nervous system was provided by . .X. .? Now this matter is obscure and complicated.
Common belief says the origin of Daesh strategic project is Saudi Arabian. For a long time this source was denied.
Then Saudi started to admit but with the formula: private Saudis have financed Daesh, then the creature turned against.
After Putin statements in Turkey, newspapers continued with private funding version.
Reliable gossips consider that it was with Saudi royal family full knowledge and intent, and believed that this was not only the beginning of which after that Saudis lost control, even being threatened.As how this project was shared between Saudis and Americans the question becomes long and complex.
The project was probably shared by "a part" of Americans and more with less while another was certainly shared with Israelis and Turks.
Currently, it is possible that Daesh diverse compositions has internal conflicts and internal policy with Saudi sponsor. What was intended, Daesh project?The goal of the project was threefold:1) first goal was to create a Sunni State by taking a piece of pieces of Iraq and Syria. This new unit was sewed Sunni tribal separated from Sykes-Picot.
Impossible coexistence with Kurds and Shi'a was abandoned. A state-space between Sunni world and Israeli-Iranian Shi'a world, "affiliate" to Saudi Arabia created.
It subtracted land and power from Shi'a Syrian tribes which were, specularly but inversely to Iraqi problem, in turn, a Shia minority which ruled a Sunni majority.
It aimed to integrate part of Iraqi-Syrian wells with Saudi Gulf system. It arose as a possible alternative to the network of hydrocarbons that flowed into the Gulf, offering a theoretical possibility to directly result in the Mediterranean. This first goal motivated the reinforced skeleton that, with Saddam end, had lost everything: land, power, future.2) Saudis had a problem with al-Qaeda. It was al-Qaeda the real Frankenstein born with the other Gulf countries and that had turned against "its creators". Consider that among all the institutional buildings of various Muslim world, the monarchy is probably the less legitimate according to Koranic tradition.
Moroccan monarchy has some legitimacy; one-Jordanian Hashemite al-Husayn, the Sheriff of Mecca and Medina screwed by the British, on the other hand is fully legitimate competitor.
The transfer was made easy by tightening money to al-Qaeda and flooding Daesh; since jihadists are sensitive to money. al-Qaeda remnants remained in Qatar sphere of interest.
As position, except adherence to ideological strain originated from Sayyid Qutb and Salafists, while al-Qaeda was the enemy near (all illegitimate Arab-Muslim governments) and far (American Great Satan and Europe).
Daesh wanted a state-territory and its main enemy, whether territorial, is ideal, it was Shi'a world. Shi'a, in fact, were both rulers Syrians, is the remains of the former Iraq, is the historic enemy of the Saudis, Iran. Technically speaking, al-Qaeda was born and remains a terrorist organization; Daesh no, it's a project that claims a State not based on ethnicity but on the basis of religion, which does not mean that it can - also - to use terrorism.3) The third objective is the most ambitious but none can say whether it was intended as an attempt-alone or end pursued with full conviction. It was to monopolize the world of the extreme Islamism, snatching from a galaxy that varied its extreme political spectrum from Muslim Brotherhood, which are not so terrorists (supported by Qatar), and delivering it to monopolists world of Wahabi Saudis.
All Daesh brutal practices only repeat al-Wahhab exploits and requirements; Wahhabi literature as explicit source runs among Daesh affiliates. Most of the new network of Islamic schools and mosques, both in Islamic and non-Islamic worlds, originate fromSaudi-Emirates.
Daesh branching in Far East, Far West and Africa follows this line of manipulation and monopoly of Koran more rigorous interpretation in order to influence all Muslim governments, as well as external enemies to disturb ' Islam, who are Chinese, Russian, Indian or European. So a State-Islamic caliphate in the "Siraq" anti-Shi'a, replace al-Qaeda and the consequent strategic reorientation, dominate the variegated world of Islamist Wahhabism.The Chinese, when it comes to Uighur (Turkish population, Muslim, in the west of the Chinese national borders, in Xinjiang), are in a hurry. Yet, for what is known, maybe Muslims are responsible even for an attack in Beijing. Moreover Chinese expressed concern that Daesh spreads to Central Asian regions, where the Chinese have projects related to its own, new, silk road.
But in these games, where ordinary mortals are lost for ethic and logic bankruptcy, China is also client of Saudi Arabia (oil) and sold missiles on which nuclear warheads given by Pakistanis (who are Chinese friends) may be inserted.
Indians of Hindu neo-nationalistic Modi, began to get into fights with Muslims inside and there the matter is also complicated by Pakistan. Pakistan itself seems to have a secret agreement to supply nuclear weapons to the Saudis, if there is a problem with Iran.
Russians are the ones which have a better idea and a freer hand in their opposition to Saudis hegemonic designs.
In addition to general geopolitical interests, the problems of Islamic terrorism in Caucasus, the grudge for dumping on oil prices, have the essential interest of maintaining the naval base at Tartus in Syria, which is the only foothold out Black Sea. As soon as Daesh appeared near Tartus, Putin ordered fighters to take off.Iranians are obviously deployed as "main enemy", through Shi'a Iraq, Assad, Alawites (non-Orthodox Shi'a) and Hezbollah, which would be a kind of Muslim Brotherhood version.
Hezbollah have interests both in Syria and in Lebanon.
Moreover, Iran remains the only real enemy armed against Israel.
Iraqi Kurds, of course, fight against for border reasons. Daesh would like as much as possible of Iraq and Kurds stand up for their share.
Just as in Syria. Turks do not want a possible Kurdish state, especially the one on the Syrian side, which is monopolized by PKK, worst internal enemy of Turkey Erdogan. This latter may tolerate a type of Sunni state in Siraq and he would like to attend the Syrian banquet taking a piece of his north. Israelis are in solidarity with Saudi Arabia and the removal of Shi'a borders, of course, they see with bad eye Assad and Hezbollah fighting.
Daesh cuts many heads but not a Jewish one.
Egypt is at the window, little can do at the moment and has his cats to fry inside, in Sinai and against Muslim Brotherhood. It has sympathy for Saudi petrodollars but . . .
After all it has historical relations with Syria and certainly does not share Saudi strategies. On the other hand, al-Sisi is indebted to Gulf for its support of coup that toppled Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood. It also takes into account that there is: a clash Sunni-Shi'a (Iran-Saudi Arabia), said "sectarian strife", there are territorial appetites and old enmities of the area, the performance of Wahabi power to oust al-Qaeda coming from ancient clan of Muhamad (Banu Hashim) and - not surprisingly - Jordanians will decide the composition of the table of negotiations on post-Syria agreed the other day in Vienna.
That Saudi Arabia has no descent from Muhammad is doubted. But the highlight is that a monarchy and moreover unfounded rules Mecca and Medina. A glance at the register in the news, you will find several attacks and arrests of members of al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia, while you will not find a single one of Daesh.
To solve the problem al-Qaeda, who was the project 1.0, he created the project 2.0 so that affiliates of no. 1 could be transferred to no. 2. The enmity between al-Qaeda and Daesh originated from hegemony of radical Islam. Around, Russians and Americans who observe and participate and Europeans (French and British) beliefs, for a century, that Arab matters affect them.
The Americans? First you have to divide Americans into two. On one hand the 'military industry' more traditional, with neocons headed by Clinton, united and in solidarity with Saudi project, at least with regard of Mesopotamia boundaries reorganization across Obama administration. Obama said - and achieved consistent and practical behavior - that Middle East has dropped in the ranking of American geopolitical interests. Recall that Obama geopolitical strategy concentrates on Asia and in practice it aims also to divide Russia and EU, considering that shale gas emancipated for a large part US dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
Oil pricing policy was managed as a weapon by Saudis on Iran and Russia but also against US, trying to put all of them out of shale gas business. At stake are the dollar status and regional treaties (TPP, TTIP, TISA, NATO enlargement).
US already have a budget out of bounds and are not omnipotent; Obama speech on the priorities makes sense.
Obama is clearing Iran to create a quartet + 1 self-balancing (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt + Israel indirectly) which neutralize each other creating the famous regional balance of power.
That is to form a new state in Sunni Siraq is given perhaps taken for granted that US commitment anti-ISIS was only mimed. That part of the neocon-Clinton instead was acted in favor of the project but Saudi-ISIS. Recently it became attractive idea finally to give a state to Kurds.
Kurds population is large, they are not Arabs and they would be eternally grateful (trusted allies) to those who give their statehood, close to the Caspian and new Sunni / Middle East state in middle between Iran, Caucasus.
Probably, the idea would be achieved by Iraqis, Iranians (recalcitrant but that could be traded with other favors) and hypothetical new Sunni state, not Turks but also here it is to consider suitable trade. Iraq and Kurdish states become the oil richest area.Recently it was ventured the idea to clear Sunni claim of a new Syrian-Iraqi state.
In terms of realism, which is the only philosophy that accounts geopolitical although not the only one to have influenced his thinking, this seems the only possible solution. There seems to bring Iraqi Sunnis with Shiites and Kurds in a single state.
It is equally unlikely to think of restoring the native Syria.
It is also unlikely that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Gulf, Turkey, Kurds and Shi'a themselves accept a return to the starting positions. It was part of the strategy that moved neocon Bush to Iraq for the region balkanization.
They knew what they were doing and were relying on fault lines objective, the same as in the Balkans.It will thus see how and when to follow up this foregone conclusion. Premise that it will not be easy and that just to come to the point of who gets what and how actions on the field will intensify for position-chip to be played at the table of complex negotiations.
Equally, it will show chaotically all different directions that make up the inside of today Daesh.
Who knows that Paris massacre cannot be seen also in this sense. To remember that Charlie Hebdo was through subjects referred to al-Qaida, not to Daesh.You will then see what will become objective no. 2 and especially no. 3 Daesh-Saudi Arabia strategy. Sunni Islamic State setting would naturally the success story that would triumph in the jihadist competition Daesh on al-Qaeda and, more generally, on boiling world of radical Islam which not necessarily uses machine gun.
But because the Arab world is the most typical of Hobbes juniper bush, if Saudis get this point, who knows what "the other" would do?
Especially Qatar, which spent so much in Syria.
Finally, the idea of a Wahhabi hegemony with a State as starting point with commitments on terrorism would be unacceptable to all over Muslim world.
The very idea of a caliphate is a mortal threat to the legitimacy of any Islamic state sovereignty which, remember, would count 1.6 billion people. Remember that the "Caliphate" is considered the only legitimate form of political state based on the history, this being the form in place of the area after Muhamad death in 632 untill 1924. According to the story, not the Koran where subject is not mentioned.This call, therefore, is for some way for Daesh normalization and its transformation into leadership of the new state entity with release of a vacuum to lose its jihadist soul. We will then see where jihadist soul would end, it it would.
Sykes descendants do not know what they're doing, but something very convoluted certainly are doing it (as usual), probably as Saudi Arabia geopolitical consultants and "occult godfathers" of the new creature.
Picot descendants are machine-gunned in Paris boulevards singing Marseillaise and go and bomb again and more. They know that bombs will not solve anything except a seat at negotiations table dealing with endgame and, believing that "their area", that chair is considered fundamental.
Someone has to reconstruct Schumpeter creative destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction , no?
Europeans are most oblivious in the world. If they hear of all colors and discusses a number of things (ideological, romantic, emotional) that have little or nothing to do with main problem, which is intricate but does not require a degree in quantum mechanics to be approached. There are the French elite scrambled by dreams of neocolonial power: the French are showing to be a people united in a very "special" way; to a certain extent this is also nice folklore, the world becomes instead a complex problem.
Then there are those who discuss merely €, drift neoliberal budgetary limits, impossible to maintain in the immediate future also.
French have already defected and because the Americans are pushing for an increase in defence spending, have already sent two nice missiles to ms. Merkel, one written VW and the other one DB, so any limits will suddenly become porous.
There is Europeans average which is terrorized by the world is and it will be.
From politics to information, that they did nothing until today to mediate the new world complexity except powerful doses of hysteria which merely confuse matters further.
Then there is media circus incompetence with vultures and hyenas which dine on their corpses.
The intellig(h)entsia of the left - at home when it comes to migrants, Tsipras, the euro and the neo-ordoliberism, found out with decades of delay, however, becoming all teachers of monetary theory - look at you as if you were talking to Yoda and Darth Vader.The alternative more extreme environment sees sophisticated conspiracies and it does not see more concrete matters: Daesh is CIA, there was no assassination attempt but only covert operations, bad guy is always America (powered by Zionists), the world (like the neocons) is ideally divided into good-good vs. bad-bad. Arab fundamentalists is a pure and simple invention. They are indeed the most jaded in some ways but in Arab-Islamic trends understatement show the same blindness of imperialists and colonialists, or a dull euro-centrism and a Westernism that - although critical - reduces new world complexity only to capitalist imperialism.
Recently, the only sensible things that they feel are said by retired generals.
Finally, read a little bit about Islam - that is: a) more than 20% of the world; b) in strong demographic growth; c) over against us; d) it is consistently present in our countries; e) a place with 30 and more members of the Afro-Asian continuum; f) very complex culture that has 14 hundred years - not a bad idea.All this apparent mismatch argues against forecasts on the consistency of our near future, which will be heavily influenced by this game and broader concerns regarding the resettlement of the weights of power on the globe.
Not only it imposed a form that had no reason to exist given the historical, cultural, political and especially religious traditions but the same breakdown, following the unilateral interests of the colonizers, it assembled pieces of incompatible populations and it divided into pieces peoples historically homogeneous.This real geopolitical disaster in Middle East, has name and precise date: the sharing-out agreement between France and Britain in 1916, negotiated between two diplomats who inserted their names, Sykes (UK) - Picot ( FRA), with equally destructive subsequent contributions. Next year it marks the anniversary of the century. This is the basis of the problem, but then on this basis in itself contradictory have added more contradictions during Second World War and following decades.This leads, with a load of puzzle pieces that have not been turned to fit together, the second US-Iraq war. Iraq was one of "most successful" masterpiece of British geographers and politicians: Kurds (non-Arab) Sunnis, with Sunni Arabs, with Arab and Iranian Shi'a. Sunni Arabs minority, in turn unnaturally separated from relatives located in adjoining Syria, Saddam had pressure cooker with his authoritarian Iraqi government.
This minority ruled over another minority, the Kurds, who had been denied a State previously promised by British as usual.
Kurds are now 30 to 40 million and they are in seven states in that portion of the geographical map with which we are familiar, although we Europeans are included in "Caucasian" race because there are our ancestral origins about 20 or 30,000 years ago.The Sunni Arab minority in Iraq then also ruled on a majority of Shiites, of mixed Arab-Iranian origin. Not only British invented a European type of state in an historical territory, Mesopotamia, which transcended class of only 10,000 years, but they did it, also, to give a sop reparation of another mess, arranged by British.
It is the legitimate (lawful according to Koran) Emir of Mecca and Medina, with whom they made an alliance using it to clear the Ottomans area, not only to fulfill the promises that they had to offset the regional efforts of the Arabs.
The sop was to deny the promised sovereignty on the Arabian Peninsula and Syria, but give the two children the sovereignty of two States, invented from scratch, what are Jordan, and Iraq.
Not only that, as a result, helps Al Saud family, which traditionally was in Mecca and Medina as Swiss are in Mediterranean, to supplant the legitimate descendants of Mohamad that were just in Mecca and Medina, inventing a third state: Saudi Arabia.
Al Saud helped giving himself a religious legitimacy (which did not exist) by referring to the pact between his ancestors and another illegitimate, some al-Wahab, from whom Wahabism followed as an extreme interpretation of the Koran which exists in Saudi Arabia only.When he jumped the lid of Iraq or Saddam pressure cooker, all these convoluted lines and disorderly forces took places and there originated a situation that is the premise to more recent history.
Of course Sykes-Picot disasters is then also entire Israel-Palestine story, but, readers, already tangled with the Syrian-Iraqi one, saves it for next time.
Moreover, in the unfortunate design of sand boxes in Middle East braided with oil and with the aftermath of United Arab Republic (an attempt to lay union between Egypt, Syria and Yemen, from which Ba'th party stemmed with its governments in Syria and Iraq); Americans arrived, Russians became Soviet and then new Russians, Ottomans became Turks, Israel became a regional power and atomic Iranians became a Shi'a Islamic republic, aspiring nuclear power.
Daesh roots are in all that.
Daesh is a tripartite entity. His skeleton is Sunni minority in Iraq elite, coming from Saddam army, secret services and police.
This is its local infrastructure and military. On this skeleton was formed muscles and organs from various types of adherents to radical Islam (Salafists, jihadists, Wahhabis etc.) from all over Muslim world.
Its nervous system was provided by . .X. .? Now this matter is obscure and complicated.
Common belief says the origin of Daesh strategic project is Saudi Arabian. For a long time this source was denied.
Then Saudi started to admit but with the formula: private Saudis have financed Daesh, then the creature turned against.
After Putin statements in Turkey, newspapers continued with private funding version.
Reliable gossips consider that it was with Saudi royal family full knowledge and intent, and believed that this was not only the beginning of which after that Saudis lost control, even being threatened.As how this project was shared between Saudis and Americans the question becomes long and complex.
The project was probably shared by "a part" of Americans and more with less while another was certainly shared with Israelis and Turks.
Currently, it is possible that Daesh diverse compositions has internal conflicts and internal policy with Saudi sponsor. What was intended, Daesh project?The goal of the project was threefold:1) first goal was to create a Sunni State by taking a piece of pieces of Iraq and Syria. This new unit was sewed Sunni tribal separated from Sykes-Picot.
Impossible coexistence with Kurds and Shi'a was abandoned. A state-space between Sunni world and Israeli-Iranian Shi'a world, "affiliate" to Saudi Arabia created.
It subtracted land and power from Shi'a Syrian tribes which were, specularly but inversely to Iraqi problem, in turn, a Shia minority which ruled a Sunni majority.
It aimed to integrate part of Iraqi-Syrian wells with Saudi Gulf system. It arose as a possible alternative to the network of hydrocarbons that flowed into the Gulf, offering a theoretical possibility to directly result in the Mediterranean. This first goal motivated the reinforced skeleton that, with Saddam end, had lost everything: land, power, future.2) Saudis had a problem with al-Qaeda. It was al-Qaeda the real Frankenstein born with the other Gulf countries and that had turned against "its creators". Consider that among all the institutional buildings of various Muslim world, the monarchy is probably the less legitimate according to Koranic tradition.
Moroccan monarchy has some legitimacy; one-Jordanian Hashemite al-Husayn, the Sheriff of Mecca and Medina screwed by the British, on the other hand is fully legitimate competitor.
The transfer was made easy by tightening money to al-Qaeda and flooding Daesh; since jihadists are sensitive to money. al-Qaeda remnants remained in Qatar sphere of interest.
As position, except adherence to ideological strain originated from Sayyid Qutb and Salafists, while al-Qaeda was the enemy near (all illegitimate Arab-Muslim governments) and far (American Great Satan and Europe).
Daesh wanted a state-territory and its main enemy, whether territorial, is ideal, it was Shi'a world. Shi'a, in fact, were both rulers Syrians, is the remains of the former Iraq, is the historic enemy of the Saudis, Iran. Technically speaking, al-Qaeda was born and remains a terrorist organization; Daesh no, it's a project that claims a State not based on ethnicity but on the basis of religion, which does not mean that it can - also - to use terrorism.3) The third objective is the most ambitious but none can say whether it was intended as an attempt-alone or end pursued with full conviction. It was to monopolize the world of the extreme Islamism, snatching from a galaxy that varied its extreme political spectrum from Muslim Brotherhood, which are not so terrorists (supported by Qatar), and delivering it to monopolists world of Wahabi Saudis.
All Daesh brutal practices only repeat al-Wahhab exploits and requirements; Wahhabi literature as explicit source runs among Daesh affiliates. Most of the new network of Islamic schools and mosques, both in Islamic and non-Islamic worlds, originate fromSaudi-Emirates.
Daesh branching in Far East, Far West and Africa follows this line of manipulation and monopoly of Koran more rigorous interpretation in order to influence all Muslim governments, as well as external enemies to disturb ' Islam, who are Chinese, Russian, Indian or European. So a State-Islamic caliphate in the "Siraq" anti-Shi'a, replace al-Qaeda and the consequent strategic reorientation, dominate the variegated world of Islamist Wahhabism.The Chinese, when it comes to Uighur (Turkish population, Muslim, in the west of the Chinese national borders, in Xinjiang), are in a hurry. Yet, for what is known, maybe Muslims are responsible even for an attack in Beijing. Moreover Chinese expressed concern that Daesh spreads to Central Asian regions, where the Chinese have projects related to its own, new, silk road.
But in these games, where ordinary mortals are lost for ethic and logic bankruptcy, China is also client of Saudi Arabia (oil) and sold missiles on which nuclear warheads given by Pakistanis (who are Chinese friends) may be inserted.
Indians of Hindu neo-nationalistic Modi, began to get into fights with Muslims inside and there the matter is also complicated by Pakistan. Pakistan itself seems to have a secret agreement to supply nuclear weapons to the Saudis, if there is a problem with Iran.
Russians are the ones which have a better idea and a freer hand in their opposition to Saudis hegemonic designs.
In addition to general geopolitical interests, the problems of Islamic terrorism in Caucasus, the grudge for dumping on oil prices, have the essential interest of maintaining the naval base at Tartus in Syria, which is the only foothold out Black Sea. As soon as Daesh appeared near Tartus, Putin ordered fighters to take off.Iranians are obviously deployed as "main enemy", through Shi'a Iraq, Assad, Alawites (non-Orthodox Shi'a) and Hezbollah, which would be a kind of Muslim Brotherhood version.
Hezbollah have interests both in Syria and in Lebanon.
Moreover, Iran remains the only real enemy armed against Israel.
Iraqi Kurds, of course, fight against for border reasons. Daesh would like as much as possible of Iraq and Kurds stand up for their share.
Just as in Syria. Turks do not want a possible Kurdish state, especially the one on the Syrian side, which is monopolized by PKK, worst internal enemy of Turkey Erdogan. This latter may tolerate a type of Sunni state in Siraq and he would like to attend the Syrian banquet taking a piece of his north. Israelis are in solidarity with Saudi Arabia and the removal of Shi'a borders, of course, they see with bad eye Assad and Hezbollah fighting.
Daesh cuts many heads but not a Jewish one.
Egypt is at the window, little can do at the moment and has his cats to fry inside, in Sinai and against Muslim Brotherhood. It has sympathy for Saudi petrodollars but . . .
After all it has historical relations with Syria and certainly does not share Saudi strategies. On the other hand, al-Sisi is indebted to Gulf for its support of coup that toppled Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood. It also takes into account that there is: a clash Sunni-Shi'a (Iran-Saudi Arabia), said "sectarian strife", there are territorial appetites and old enmities of the area, the performance of Wahabi power to oust al-Qaeda coming from ancient clan of Muhamad (Banu Hashim) and - not surprisingly - Jordanians will decide the composition of the table of negotiations on post-Syria agreed the other day in Vienna.
That Saudi Arabia has no descent from Muhammad is doubted. But the highlight is that a monarchy and moreover unfounded rules Mecca and Medina. A glance at the register in the news, you will find several attacks and arrests of members of al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia, while you will not find a single one of Daesh.
To solve the problem al-Qaeda, who was the project 1.0, he created the project 2.0 so that affiliates of no. 1 could be transferred to no. 2. The enmity between al-Qaeda and Daesh originated from hegemony of radical Islam. Around, Russians and Americans who observe and participate and Europeans (French and British) beliefs, for a century, that Arab matters affect them.
The Americans? First you have to divide Americans into two. On one hand the 'military industry' more traditional, with neocons headed by Clinton, united and in solidarity with Saudi project, at least with regard of Mesopotamia boundaries reorganization across Obama administration. Obama said - and achieved consistent and practical behavior - that Middle East has dropped in the ranking of American geopolitical interests. Recall that Obama geopolitical strategy concentrates on Asia and in practice it aims also to divide Russia and EU, considering that shale gas emancipated for a large part US dependence on Middle Eastern oil.
Oil pricing policy was managed as a weapon by Saudis on Iran and Russia but also against US, trying to put all of them out of shale gas business. At stake are the dollar status and regional treaties (TPP, TTIP, TISA, NATO enlargement).
US already have a budget out of bounds and are not omnipotent; Obama speech on the priorities makes sense.
Obama is clearing Iran to create a quartet + 1 self-balancing (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt + Israel indirectly) which neutralize each other creating the famous regional balance of power.
That is to form a new state in Sunni Siraq is given perhaps taken for granted that US commitment anti-ISIS was only mimed. That part of the neocon-Clinton instead was acted in favor of the project but Saudi-ISIS. Recently it became attractive idea finally to give a state to Kurds.
Kurds population is large, they are not Arabs and they would be eternally grateful (trusted allies) to those who give their statehood, close to the Caspian and new Sunni / Middle East state in middle between Iran, Caucasus.
Probably, the idea would be achieved by Iraqis, Iranians (recalcitrant but that could be traded with other favors) and hypothetical new Sunni state, not Turks but also here it is to consider suitable trade. Iraq and Kurdish states become the oil richest area.Recently it was ventured the idea to clear Sunni claim of a new Syrian-Iraqi state.
In terms of realism, which is the only philosophy that accounts geopolitical although not the only one to have influenced his thinking, this seems the only possible solution. There seems to bring Iraqi Sunnis with Shiites and Kurds in a single state.
It is equally unlikely to think of restoring the native Syria.
It is also unlikely that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Gulf, Turkey, Kurds and Shi'a themselves accept a return to the starting positions. It was part of the strategy that moved neocon Bush to Iraq for the region balkanization.
They knew what they were doing and were relying on fault lines objective, the same as in the Balkans.It will thus see how and when to follow up this foregone conclusion. Premise that it will not be easy and that just to come to the point of who gets what and how actions on the field will intensify for position-chip to be played at the table of complex negotiations.
Equally, it will show chaotically all different directions that make up the inside of today Daesh.
Who knows that Paris massacre cannot be seen also in this sense. To remember that Charlie Hebdo was through subjects referred to al-Qaida, not to Daesh.You will then see what will become objective no. 2 and especially no. 3 Daesh-Saudi Arabia strategy. Sunni Islamic State setting would naturally the success story that would triumph in the jihadist competition Daesh on al-Qaeda and, more generally, on boiling world of radical Islam which not necessarily uses machine gun.
But because the Arab world is the most typical of Hobbes juniper bush, if Saudis get this point, who knows what "the other" would do?
Especially Qatar, which spent so much in Syria.
Finally, the idea of a Wahhabi hegemony with a State as starting point with commitments on terrorism would be unacceptable to all over Muslim world.
The very idea of a caliphate is a mortal threat to the legitimacy of any Islamic state sovereignty which, remember, would count 1.6 billion people. Remember that the "Caliphate" is considered the only legitimate form of political state based on the history, this being the form in place of the area after Muhamad death in 632 untill 1924. According to the story, not the Koran where subject is not mentioned.This call, therefore, is for some way for Daesh normalization and its transformation into leadership of the new state entity with release of a vacuum to lose its jihadist soul. We will then see where jihadist soul would end, it it would.
Sykes descendants do not know what they're doing, but something very convoluted certainly are doing it (as usual), probably as Saudi Arabia geopolitical consultants and "occult godfathers" of the new creature.
Picot descendants are machine-gunned in Paris boulevards singing Marseillaise and go and bomb again and more. They know that bombs will not solve anything except a seat at negotiations table dealing with endgame and, believing that "their area", that chair is considered fundamental.
Someone has to reconstruct Schumpeter creative destruction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction , no?
Europeans are most oblivious in the world. If they hear of all colors and discusses a number of things (ideological, romantic, emotional) that have little or nothing to do with main problem, which is intricate but does not require a degree in quantum mechanics to be approached. There are the French elite scrambled by dreams of neocolonial power: the French are showing to be a people united in a very "special" way; to a certain extent this is also nice folklore, the world becomes instead a complex problem.
Then there are those who discuss merely €, drift neoliberal budgetary limits, impossible to maintain in the immediate future also.
French have already defected and because the Americans are pushing for an increase in defence spending, have already sent two nice missiles to ms. Merkel, one written VW and the other one DB, so any limits will suddenly become porous.
There is Europeans average which is terrorized by the world is and it will be.
From politics to information, that they did nothing until today to mediate the new world complexity except powerful doses of hysteria which merely confuse matters further.
Then there is media circus incompetence with vultures and hyenas which dine on their corpses.
The intellig(h)entsia of the left - at home when it comes to migrants, Tsipras, the euro and the neo-ordoliberism, found out with decades of delay, however, becoming all teachers of monetary theory - look at you as if you were talking to Yoda and Darth Vader.The alternative more extreme environment sees sophisticated conspiracies and it does not see more concrete matters: Daesh is CIA, there was no assassination attempt but only covert operations, bad guy is always America (powered by Zionists), the world (like the neocons) is ideally divided into good-good vs. bad-bad. Arab fundamentalists is a pure and simple invention. They are indeed the most jaded in some ways but in Arab-Islamic trends understatement show the same blindness of imperialists and colonialists, or a dull euro-centrism and a Westernism that - although critical - reduces new world complexity only to capitalist imperialism.
Recently, the only sensible things that they feel are said by retired generals.
Finally, read a little bit about Islam - that is: a) more than 20% of the world; b) in strong demographic growth; c) over against us; d) it is consistently present in our countries; e) a place with 30 and more members of the Afro-Asian continuum; f) very complex culture that has 14 hundred years - not a bad idea.All this apparent mismatch argues against forecasts on the consistency of our near future, which will be heavily influenced by this game and broader concerns regarding the resettlement of the weights of power on the globe.
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