UN resolution that sanctions the international support to new Government of National Unity (GNU) which must be born by January in Libya does not solve serious military problem that is gripping the former Italian colony.
At best, new government will take office in Tripoli by end of January, but put together the various militias (many of which are fought until recently) and establish them as an army under a single national flag will take several months.
Long time to benefit of al-Qaeda, Ansar al Sharia deployed in Western Cyrenaica and IS militias popping from Sirte towards oil terminals of Sidra, to Misrata and Tripoli in the field of Sabratha.
Down today foreign fighters who came from Syria and Sahel are strengthening the ranks of jihadist fighters with superior experience and tactical skills to Libyan militiamen while the formation of the new government under UN aegis could lead to an environment leading to welding between movements Jihadists, today rivals, uniting under a single Islamic state alliance, Ansar al-Sharia and other minor groups Salafis.
An agreement is justified by position taken by Council of Ulemas Libyan described the agreement signed by government of national reconciliation "contrary to sharia".
To stop jihadists in Libya, the international community, already with dramatic delay, could then be forced to intervene in the short closing gaps Libyan militia.
Many have argued that Italy will take the lead in international mission that will help the new government in the tasks of defense and security but, in the interview published by "Il Mattino" newspaper. stated that Roberta Pinotti, Defense Minister, possibility of air strikes to hit Italian bases Isis in Sirte is currently excluded.
Italy, France, Britain and perhaps even Germany are developing a plan for military support to Libya, non-combat operation that provides the establishment of a safety device that protects the institutional and some strategic sites and care training and advice to Libyan forces.
But the thousands of Libyan recruits in 2013-2014 period have been trained in Italy and Europe have gone missing. Many were driven to abuse and disciplinary problems, a number has not completed its training, some have sought asylum in host countries and of those returned to Libya none of them fought Islamic State while it is not excluded that in several have swelled jihadist groups ranks.
The training program is also foundered for the unreliability of military Libyans given that none has ever paid $ 600 million bill for the training of 15,000 recruits.
For this reason today relying on Libyans to stop IS in Libya may be illusory. London, Paris and Washington prepare in fact even military action against Islamic State.
Unconfirmed report that British special forces are already in the country with the reconnaissance and intelligence tasks. Jets of French aircraft carrier de Gaulle carried out reconnaissance of Sirte and Le Figaro quoted military sources for which "military action in the next six months if not before spring is considered indispensable."
US special forces have landed in recent days in al-Wattyah, basic forces loyal to Tobruk south of Tripoli. They were forced to leave because of poor coordination between Libyan forces but their goal seems to have been the basis of Islamic State in Sabratha. The unavailability of Rome to carry out military operations against IS threatens to undermine the Italian leadership in international operations in Libya.
Moreover,UN Libyan ambassador, Ibrahim al-Dabashi, had specified that UN resolution on Libya would open the way for air strikes by Western countries (Italy included) in IS fight.
The risk is that Roma lead a low profile mission of support and training while other states conducting military actions whose consequences would weigh even on our interests in Libya.
Hard to hold the command without "getting hands dirty" and the war against Gaddafi regime in 2011, triggered by Franco-Anglo-American and then wearily conducted by NATO, has shown how the initiatives of our "allies" pursue national interests generally hostile to Italian ones.
In this context government's decision not to involve Italy in the fighting, it may make sense in theaters of war increasingly chaotic as Syrian-Iraqi, risks as opposed to limiting the ability to protect our interests in Libya.
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