Wednesday 20 January 2016

LIBYA NEW DEFENSE MINISTER

His name is Mahdi al-Barghathi. He is GNA (Govt National Accord) new defense minister of Libya, the only government (now) legitimate in UN and West eyes, GNA as UN envoy announced Tuesday, January 19 with a tweet of relief.
It remains to be seen whether GNA will remain on paper or be able to actually take possession of former Italian colony, getting that Libyans consensus without which any policy is doomed to fail.
Time is running, IS advances, launches attacks on oil terminals, in order to sabotage the economy run by "impure" governments - Libya had (or still has?) two govts, one in Tripoli, the other in Tobruk - and international community speaks openly of armed intervention against the Caliphate.
UN and Italy stand as a precondition the request for support by GNA(as soon as fully approved, to avoid adding chaos to chaos, other countries, such as France, seem to move more independently, not wanting to depend on the time of the grueling African politics.
GNA is unity government with 32 Ministers, according to list compiled 48 hours later than scheduled deadline.

The name of Barghati, "may be the squaring of the circle." Barghati, in fact, is a soldier who has fighted IS in Benghazi, but has distanced himself from general Haftar, main obstacle to the agreement between the two governments (Haftar, who leads the forces of Eastern Libya, is tied to Tobruk and he is detested by Tripoli.
The appointment of Barghati can be the guarantee that Libya will have a real army and not a collection of militias, as requested by Eastern Libya.
At the same time, however, Haftar is linked to Aguila Saleh, Tobruk Parliament, so without its consent about him becomes more difficult for GNA to get a general confidence.
Not impossible, but certainly more complicated.
"Barghati could be squaring the circle: IS has indeed fought in Benghazi, but he has distanced himself from general Haftar, one of the main obstacles to the agreement between the two governments".
Libya roadmap, in fact, expects that now the executive receives approval, within ten days, by Parliament of Tobruk.
It is a decisive step to have full legitimacy. At the same time, to enable GNA effective control of the country, Libyans (with EU military support??) should create the security conditions so that GNA can settle in Tripoli.
Italy urges caution but finds a positive aspect in the choice of the new defense minister, "Resizing or downsizing Haftar could move large part of Tripoli forces in favor of the agreement and allow the entry of GNA in the capital. Everything will depend on signals by GNA"
In the background there is the great bogeyman, IS.
An effective GNA would be the most effective tool against Caliphate, a view that should be the Libyans to fight for it.
The executive comprises could lead to an agreement between the three forces that now confront the IS: oil guards headed by Ibrahim Jadran, for whom IS and Haftar are equally enemies plus Misrata militias.
And those generals who wage war with Islamists in Benghazi, but they are not with Haftar. That is, if GNA would give signals to international community that a coordination among these three forces is possible.
It would change the military intervention dynamics against IS, which not only would become even more likely, but it would take place in advocated manner: aerial coverage by West, boots on the ground by Libyans with West support.
This would be the best option. But there is a more pessimistic about the future of Libya. "If  Tobruk Parliament does not approve GNA, a political problem would be created. International community, to intervene in Libya, should appeal to 'creative solution'. Some, like France, or Britain, would think that form is not worth its substance and unilateral action possibility would have been pushed a little further.
It is unlikely that during these ten days West moves in this direction. The problem is that Libyan deadlines are constantly delayed, so patience may wear down Western.
Next summit in February about IS will probably be turning point. "

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