Wednesday, 14 December 2016

HAFTER and TRUMP

we focus on the Libyan Political Agreement agreed upon by the Libya Dialogue Group. Under this agreement, we indicated that the Government of National Unity had begun its work in April 2016 in Tripoli. We had said that the militia forces that recognized the Government of National Unity had begun an operation to expel DAESH from Sirthe and all of Libya but that the Government of National Unity still had serious problems in assuming its authority. There are many problems, the Assembly of Representatives in Tobrouk which continues its existence even though its term of office has expired. The government attached to this Assembly of Representatives and General Khalifa Haftar who conducts his military forces are the greatest obstacles to national reconciliation. Haftar, which is increasing its strength in the east of the country, is in the process of creating a military administration in this region.
Another factor is the disagreement in the Libyan policies of the extra-Libyan actors that political groups in Libya wish to include in the quest for solutions. The United States, Great Britain, France, Italy, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and even Turkey who today wish to have the floor on the developments in Libya, Have no policies that are in harmony. Thus, even if they all recognize the same government as the official authority, they support a different Libyan actor. That obviously hurts the quests for national unity.
Although it is increasing its power day by day in eastern Libya, Haftar is not happy with the current situation. The support granted to Haftar by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, France and Saudi Arabia does not allow him to resolve the Libyan crisis as he would like. He feels that he can play a key role if Russia intervenes actively in the Libyan crisis. In this context, during the year 2016 he made two visits to Russia in the hope of obtaining the support of this country. It was the electoral victory of Donald Trump that prompted Haftar to make his second visit to Russia. Trump's statements about his new Middle Eastern policies, his view of all Islamists as terrorists and his speeches during which he supported Al-Sisi and Putin are also among the essential elements that constitute the cause of his visit Russia. Haftar believes that at the time of Trump, the United States, Egypt and Russia will be able to establish a new cooperation in the Middle East. To this end, the Libyan general went to Moscow to request military aid and training from the Russian administration. If Moscow decides to support one of the parts of the Libyan question, it will surely have an important effect on the Libyan actors. Would Russia make such a choice?
Unlike its position in Syria, Russia has so far avoided interfering with the Libyan problem and has never before vetoed the UN Security Council's decisions on Libya. On the other hand, Russia has supported the political dialogue and agreements that have been established in Libya over the past two years. It even recognized the Government of National Unity. Moreover, we know that Russia has a sympathy for the governments of Hafter and Tobruk. Russia is close to the position of France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates regarding the Libyan issue.
Hafter's government used the map of terrorism as a common enemy to gain military support during its meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. However, the official spokesman of the Kremlin has so far made no declarations as to whether Russia will give this support or not. On the contrary, the Russian spokesman said that they had made contacts with different political branches and that talks with Hafter were part of this process. On the other hand, information about the Lavrov-Hafter interview published by the Russian official news agency does not show that the support requested was provided. Lavrov told Hafter that Russia supports the quest for a national consensus in Libya according to the decisions of the UN Security Council.
During his election campaign, Donald Trump often criticized the Obama administration and Hillary Clinton for their Libyan policy. Donald Trump, who has always spoken favorably of Putin, said he would seek to cooperate with Russia in the Middle East. It is for all these reasons that the Haftar supporters considered Trump's victory as a good one.

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