Honey words, so many. Concrete support, no one. In essence, a gossip. So Europe's walls and hypocrisy have responded to the Italian demands for a sharing of intervention on the migrant emergency in the Mediterranean, the most ferocious and most deadly route.
Europe remains hostage to the North axis, the one that has always looked at the southern shore of the Mediterranean as a threat and never as a crucial geopolitical place of cooperation. A short-sighted Europe can not focus on events that are marking North Africa, with the common trait of instability that is becoming more and more explosive. Starting with Libya. To intervene in a failed state, with a government ridden in a naval base in Tripoli, driven by a prime minister whose authority is zero. To pretend to show the muscles, even "alone" with a naval block, in a country where there are 200,000 armed men under countless flags, more than an avant-garde choice is a huge idiocy. That would be tragic if you tried to implement it. Because Libya, apart from some terrestrial exhibitions of leather heads of various nationalities (a handful of Italians), was and remains a land of nobody, in search of the paradoxes of History, of a "new Colonel" or, if We want to update, an Erdogan model "Sultan", not so much to stabilize the unstable, but to take on the role of "Gendarme" of the central Mediterranean.
In this unmistakable puzzle, Italy tries to exercise the diplomacy of the "two cards": on the one hand, supporting the premier architect-al-Serraj without removing from the table the "card" Haftar, the strong man of Cyrenaica, Independent General who holds the Tobruk Parliament - the only internationally recognized, the one in theory favorable to Serraj - and which moves to the close dependence of its external protector: the "Pinochet of the Pyramids", President-General Abdel Fattah -Yes, yes. The Libyan version of the "Turkish model" - a police state at the service of wall and hotspot-lager - is therefore Khalifa Haftar, a former Gaddafi servant, who is now armed with a well-trained, armed army , And supported by Egypt of al-Sisi and the United Arab Emirates. Haftar while politically holding Tripoli, he focuses on his armed forces in Cirenaica, with two goals: getting rid of the Shura Council of Revolutionaries in Benghazi and liberating Derna. At the moment for the "general" fight Isis is the last of the problems. In the first place, there is the hated Serraj.
"It does not spring off Haftar," notes Angelo Del Boca, the most authoritative historian of Italian colonialism in North Africa - because he is well aware that if he recognizes the authority of the new "premier," he will never be the leader of the new Libya Aspirated to become. "
Other than stabilization: Libya is everybody's war against everyone. The Islamist militias of Tripoli and Misurata, who enjoy the support of the desert berbers, against those of Zintan allies of Haftar. The same strong man of Cirenaica begins to lose pieces. As for the "unifying" premier, it is difficult to see him in these ways when even in the capital of his government, Tripoli, hostile militias and war against one another control entire neighborhoods and even the airport. Insecurity reigns supreme. In my opinion, not only are the many lords of the war in the field, but the long queues in Tripoli in front of the banks: the cash is scarce, the change of the dinar is in free fall. And as it is not enough, in addition to the two rival governments in eastern and western Libya there are also two central banks. No illusion of constructing, on the debris of the wicked war of 2011, a state of law, when it is already a business to imagine Libya of the future can still be a semblance of a unified state, as powerful regional actors work hard for the Tripartite territory with the constitutions of three protectors: Tripolitania, Cirenaica, Fezzan.
On the jihadist side, the most fearsome pitfalls come from the Qaedists of Ansar Al Sharia - which can count on at least 5,000 militants, deployed between Benghazi and the Islamic State. Around Hon, the chief town of the district of Giofra between Sirte and Sebha, some training camps were created to accommodate and train fighters from Sahel and Senegal and Boko Haram men who are making a decisive boost to Isis's staff in Libya. Moreover, one of the main goals of al-Baghdadi in Libya is precisely this: to increase the troop and to enlist new fighters. Raising in Central-South Libya allows Isis to penetrate illegal smuggling and trafficking channels and exploit them by accessing new resources. Exactly what happened in "Siraq". Today, the strength of the Islamic state in Libya can be estimated at about 8,000.
By Arnaldo Guidotti 30.6.2017
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