MIGRANTS DILEMA

Only Putin can solve the problem of Italy in Libya. Abandoned, if not derided by Europe, Italy's hands are tied by Triton program and it is doomed to "welcome" migrants. We need a step change in Libya.

"The Italian hub to Africa: political agreements to govern the phenomenon of migration, but not all." This was said yesterday by Italian Foreign Minister Alfano speaking at the first economic forum between Italy and Libya at Agrigento (Sicily-Italy).

Meanwhile, however, the fact is that Libya is the hub of migrants to Italy. An uncertain and short-sighted policy, it is explained in this interview. "Focus on Libya, on this Libya to stem the migrant emergency is a predictable failure."

As it is happening now Italy's responsibilities are identified.  The finger is pointed at the Triton operation, signed by the Renzi government. Right or wrong?

Triton allows to ships operating in the Mediterranean to conduct all migrants to Italy. The consequences are obvious. So far Europe has laid on this principle, washing consciousness with the periodic allocation of increased funds to support the mission. This is no longer enough, so I think it is essential for Italy to insist with Frontex to review the mandate of Triton so as to share in a shared migrants rescued by the various ships of foreign NGOs operating in the Mediterranean. Europe seems very cohesive in not wanting to implement radical change of pace.

In those days there was much talk of Libya, so often citing unspecified "funds" to be used for emergency management. What can tell us about?

The agreement on migrant signed on 2 February between Gentiloni Serraj contained, among other things, support equipment to the Libyan coast guard with an estimated value of about 800 million euro. Only a fraction, however, was made available. The idea of providing more funds to the "Libyan authorities" to work together in the search and rescue is not feasible in my view without prior stabilization of the political situation and the country's security. Put another way, who are those whom give this money if there is no government?

Who are the much-cited "Libyan authorities"?

Exactly. The risk would be to see our resources into the wrong hands with all the dramatic consequences that we can imagine. Focusing on Libya, on this Libya to stem the migrant emergency is a predictable failure.

It can be said that the current Libyan political framework, subject to certain developments, is the same as it is outlined in the adjustment phase of the civil war?

In some ways yes. In Libya right now is being a full-blown civil war in the interior areas of Fezzan. Here a few weeks ago near the base of the Shati Brak, controlled by militias linked to Khalifa Haftar, were killed by some Islamist militias, probably out of hand in Serraj, nearly 140 men loyal to the general. There is increasing polarization between the Libyan National Army forces Haftar and some Islamist forces in the area, as happened in 2014 when there was the "split" between Tripoli and Tobruk. This state of things will hardly bring in a new order in the country but just drifting Libya.

But if so, is it aware to Italy, especially during the EU presidency and also in 2015, to have dramatically underestimated the gravity of the situation in Libya?

In part, yes. On the one hand Italy, like other European countries, he has certainly taken lightly what was happening in Libya, on the other hand, however, was the actor who most tried to find a solution, probably late, the chaos that now It had degenerated in the country. We were especially those of us who wanted the Skhirat agreements of December 2015 for the establishment of a national agreement Serraj Government and the minister Minniti has worked extensively with the actors in Tripoli to find some solution to the problem of migration.

From the coasts of Tripoli 90 percent of migrants arriving in Italy. We are the largest oil importer and the only recipient of Libyan gas are Italian and many of the offshore mining activities carried off the capital.

What else could we do? Maybe something more and that something more might mean groped to rise to the role of "interlocutors of Tripoli" to mediate an agreement with international allies and regional Haftar.

Libya today says it all: the need to use the UNHCR camps as the basis for the rejection of economic migrants, which patrol the coasts to prevent the departures, the agreements to do with African transit countries, the need to intervene intercepting the upstream flow. They are realistic ideas?

It seems clear that at the time we rely very little on Libya. It 'must, therefore, act in another way. In the short and medium term with agreements with countries of origin and transit, where possible, such as Niger to which we have secured 50 million Euros to strengthen their borders. Europe from this point of view should engage much more in the allocation of funds. But it also serves to act in the long term.

How?

Rethinking European policy of development cooperation, which, unfortunately, from the 50s to today was totally bankrupt. However, such policies require a great economic effort and a necessary cohesion in Europe and unfortunately at the moment we lack both. If Italy will be forced to go it alone begging some alms to the reluctant European leaders the problem will never find a solution capable of holding over time.

Serraj looks increasingly weak. And so?

The problem is that Haftar does not enjoy the consensus of the Libyan population majority. There are important Islamist groups, such as the numerous militias from Misrata, who see Haftar just a smokescreen. A solution to be able to hold up over time must therefore be inclusive and involve the largest possible number of actors, even the Tripoli groups.

In concrete terms?

We can and must still assert our position in Tripoli to groped to broker a deal with the Libyan east pivoting on its international sponsors, Russia above. This, however, should be done before other actors, ahead of all France, they decide for us. If that were to happen we would have thrown away all the effort that in recent years we have put in Libya to recover the primacy position before Sarkozy and Hollande then had knowingly attempted to escape.

Haftar announced last week the capture of entire Benghazi. It will check all of Libya? But above all, it is perhaps what we have to hope for?

Haftar has widened in the territory, consolidated at Benghazi, nevralgic city of Libya. That said, I repeat that is unlikely to be control over the country. A few weeks ago was called into freedom Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, kept in check by the Zintan militias loyal to the east Libya. Perhaps the objective was to consolidate and strengthen the Eastern Front also opening to former Gadafi supporters, still present in the country. And 'soon, however, to make predictions about a possible political role in the country's future. That being the case, a strengthening of Haftar risks exacerbating the minds of Islamist groups. The most plausible scenario is that of a resurgence of fighting in the country.

As it affects the political crisis in the Persian Gulf in what is happening in Libya?

Qatar, unlike his "former friends of the Gulf," said Libyan Islamists. For this to Sisi, an ally of the secular front of Haftar, it dictated that the black list of sponsors of terrorism - drawn from Egypt, the UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia - there were all the enemies on the field of general including former leaders the Libyan Islamic fighting Group Abdelhakim Belhadj and defense Brigades of Tripoli. Without funding from the Qatar these actors are unlikely to last long, encouraging, therefore, the wing of Tobruk. But Turkey, historic ally of tripolini Islamists, could increase the resources, balancing the game.

In your opinion, what should we do with respect to European partners?

Continue to insist that way is a "regionalization" of the landing of migrants rescued in the Mediterranean and therefore the opening of new European ports, if necessary raising of the voice. And 'necessary to push Europe to sanction countries that have not acceded to the migrants share policy and at the same time extend same policy to new nationality.

And at the international level?

Trump seems little interested in the Libyan issue with Putin party, being a sponsor and Haftar ally. This is why Italy should communicate more with Moscow, to try an intra-Libyan agreement and groped to stem the problem of flows at the start.

INSHALLA TAMAM