Saturday, 5 September 2015

EU doubts & hesitation

Cyclically flashed back to the hypothesis of an international military intervention in Libya, Italian-led and UN mandate. One possibility that seems to be believed by Italian Govt although an agreement among all the Libyans factions still seems far away and it is not clear what would be UN force tasks.Deploy troops in Libya for a mission without a clear military objective would entail high costs and risks in the current context in which the presence of Western troops would end up attracting all the suicide bombers of North Africa and Sahel. Not surprisingly, Italian foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni said that 'Italy does not intend to be involved in Libya in "adventures in the desert" because they "do not serve and worsen the situation." Italy, stressed the minister, "should do its part to support by all means the negotiations" and "to take action in containing the terrorist threat", "but if the invitation to leave the hesitation means promoting an armed intervention" then we are not available, "the government does not want it."The document with which France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Britain and US govts have called on August 17 all Libyan factions to unite their forces against IS which is rampant and consolidated in Sirte and in other places, it does not seem to indicate the rest of Western powers availability to deploy troops and equipment on Libyan soil. In recent weeks, British media filtered the availability of London to conduct military actions against the Caliphate in Libya but in this case it is unlikely that London will act in Rome subordinate position or indeed it seems that UN have quickly put point to a resolution authorizing international intervention.The joint statement of the six states that "there is no military solution to the Libyan crisis" but the Islamic State is expanding its domain with weapons and appears increasingly strident confrontation between US and NATO intervention against Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, called then "necessary" to protect civilians from the regime and against the Jihadists come to 400 kilometers from the west coast of Europe remains at the window despite the Isis has proclaimed the emirate in Sirte, forcing the population to submit to stricter Sharia and performing executions that have not spared Christians and alleged spies. Position waiting for Arab League last week ruled in favor of generic military supplies to Tobruk govt.  
Wipe out IS militias from Gaddafi's hometown would be potentially rapid and within the reach of Italian forces only which could drive a joint action between Tobruk army in the east and the militias of Misrata in west with a attack by land, sea and sky leaving to Libyan troops the task of controlling the territory. It would be a valuable test to check availability of various Libyan militias to cooperate against Isis, but it would, however, an operation of war, similar (but larger) the one performed against the same enemy by Egyptians in Derna in February. Nothing to do with "peace missions". Therefore unlikely that Rome authorizes it as  Italian contingent is the only one of 24 planes of the Coalition mobilized against Isis in Iraq and Syria not to use weapons.In recent days the minister Gentiloni stressed the risk that Libya will become another Somalia but the comparison was topical already more than a year ago (the African Union warned that effect NATO in spring 2011 when he took via the war against Gaddafi) and since then they have done virtually nothing if not rely on the negotiations of the UN envoy, Bernardino Leon, still on the high seas and that they failed to engage the Islamist government that controls the coast from Tripoli which set sail every day the boats bound for Italy.A traffic too intense and profitable because nobody knows anything in Tripoli as well as it should not escape the "strange coincidence" that sees Europe reached every day by thousands of illegal immigrants landing on the coast of the Greek and Italian from nearly all from Turkey and Libyan territories controlled by a government that has in Turkey and Qatar in his only allies. Perhaps it would be to demand some explanation in Ankara.The priority for Italy is to ensure the safety of facilities and Eni's Greenstream over to stop migration flows managed by the traffickers. However unlikely a green light to UN operations on the Libyan coast against criminals. Requests to that effect by Federica Mogherini have in fact been rejected and the fleet launched by the EU (Eunavfor Med) to combat the traffickers and at sea by the end of June is still waiting for a possible green light from Brussels to destroy the barges at least high seas, after having boarded passengers.A green light that optimists believe could possibly get from the summit of foreign ministers of the EU on 3 September.In fact a fleet which costs fifty million euro every three months for EU (11.8 million allocated so far), Italy (26 million) and the other participating countries, if all goes well will do what they already do without Triton fanfare the operation of the European Agency Frontex and the Italian Sea Sure that after having collected the occupants sink legitimately barges and rafts to prevent traffickers from using them

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