Facts and analysis
It has often been taken for granted, but yesterday we thought the UN envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, to give new vigor to the hopes of an agreement: During the negotiations under way in Morocco is no consensus " on the main elements "of an agreement for the formation of a national unity government in the former kingdom of Muammar Gaddafi, which could take place within 7 days.
TIMING
However the road is uphill and it was the same Leon (whose term will expire at the end of the month) to invite caution. Within two days, the two main rival factions which are covered in Tripoli and Tobruk should return to Skhirat, which hosts the talks, with the go-ahead for the signing of the agreement by September 20. Will also fall with the names to be proposed as candidates for the national unity government, "added Leon. Many things could happen in the meantime, but there is confidence that the situation can be a real turning point.
WORDS OF LEON
"We know there is much work to do, but we believe it will be possible to reach this deadline of 20 September with an agreement signed," he added Leon yet. "After hours of discussion, we have found what we believe to be a consensus on the main elements" of a political agreement to end the conflict, the diplomat announced. "We believe there will be a consensus by all."
WHAT DOES THE AGREEMENT
"After hours of discussion - even Leon explained at the press conference - we found what we believe to be a consensus on the main elements, the amended points are six or seven, and by September 20, all parties should give their consent to the formation the unity government. " The formula shows UN envoy adds Vincenzo Nigro of the Republic, "he provides for the appointment of a prime minister and two deputy prime minister, who would form the core of a strong" Council presidency "expanded to two other ministers of the new government. Among the "triumvirate" there should always be unanimity in decision-making, and the three would be indicated by Tripoli, Tobruk / Benghazi and south of Libya. "
ANALYSIS by Toaldo
Mattia Toaldo, analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London, however, have other aspects to be reckoned with. "We do not know all the details of the agreement and will need to look at a particular aspect: the elimination of the military positions requested by CNG, which would imply the dismissal of General Khalifa Haftar", near Tobruk. According to sources close to the government of Tripoli, the expert explains to Formiche.net, "we would be in this draft presented by Leon to the parties today. It would be a decisive element that would not excuse the militias that control the capital not to support the agreement. " On the other hand, emphasizes the analyst, "we must see if the regional powers (especially Egypt) will make an explicit step of recommending a reaction Haftar prudent and realistic."
RISKS
Now, Toaldo concludes, "the agreement is very likely and then approaching the time when the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi will decide the contours of the Italian military mission. If you will not do it quickly, the mechanism with our allies to decide the military mission will remain locked as it is now. Creating a dangerous security vacuum. "
THE SECOND PHASE OF EUNAVFOR MED
Facts and assumptions that are intertwined with another important news. Brussels gave the green light to the second phase of the mission Eunavfor Med, which provides for the use of military force in international waters against the smugglers of migrants who work starting right from Libya, seizing and - if necessary - destroying barges to dismantle organizations involved in the smuggling of human beings.
It has often been taken for granted, but yesterday we thought the UN envoy to Libya, Bernardino Leon, to give new vigor to the hopes of an agreement: During the negotiations under way in Morocco is no consensus " on the main elements "of an agreement for the formation of a national unity government in the former kingdom of Muammar Gaddafi, which could take place within 7 days.
TIMING
However the road is uphill and it was the same Leon (whose term will expire at the end of the month) to invite caution. Within two days, the two main rival factions which are covered in Tripoli and Tobruk should return to Skhirat, which hosts the talks, with the go-ahead for the signing of the agreement by September 20. Will also fall with the names to be proposed as candidates for the national unity government, "added Leon. Many things could happen in the meantime, but there is confidence that the situation can be a real turning point.
WORDS OF LEON
"We know there is much work to do, but we believe it will be possible to reach this deadline of 20 September with an agreement signed," he added Leon yet. "After hours of discussion, we have found what we believe to be a consensus on the main elements" of a political agreement to end the conflict, the diplomat announced. "We believe there will be a consensus by all."
WHAT DOES THE AGREEMENT
"After hours of discussion - even Leon explained at the press conference - we found what we believe to be a consensus on the main elements, the amended points are six or seven, and by September 20, all parties should give their consent to the formation the unity government. " The formula shows UN envoy adds Vincenzo Nigro of the Republic, "he provides for the appointment of a prime minister and two deputy prime minister, who would form the core of a strong" Council presidency "expanded to two other ministers of the new government. Among the "triumvirate" there should always be unanimity in decision-making, and the three would be indicated by Tripoli, Tobruk / Benghazi and south of Libya. "
ANALYSIS by Toaldo
Mattia Toaldo, analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London, however, have other aspects to be reckoned with. "We do not know all the details of the agreement and will need to look at a particular aspect: the elimination of the military positions requested by CNG, which would imply the dismissal of General Khalifa Haftar", near Tobruk. According to sources close to the government of Tripoli, the expert explains to Formiche.net, "we would be in this draft presented by Leon to the parties today. It would be a decisive element that would not excuse the militias that control the capital not to support the agreement. " On the other hand, emphasizes the analyst, "we must see if the regional powers (especially Egypt) will make an explicit step of recommending a reaction Haftar prudent and realistic."
RISKS
Now, Toaldo concludes, "the agreement is very likely and then approaching the time when the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi will decide the contours of the Italian military mission. If you will not do it quickly, the mechanism with our allies to decide the military mission will remain locked as it is now. Creating a dangerous security vacuum. "
THE SECOND PHASE OF EUNAVFOR MED
Facts and assumptions that are intertwined with another important news. Brussels gave the green light to the second phase of the mission Eunavfor Med, which provides for the use of military force in international waters against the smugglers of migrants who work starting right from Libya, seizing and - if necessary - destroying barges to dismantle organizations involved in the smuggling of human beings.
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