Two Governments. Two parliaments. 140 tribes. 230 armed militias. Besides IS (Daesh).A situation that analysts over the world would not want to tackle even
by accident, but which is so dramatically close enough to touch.Libya
after Gaddafi is a betrayal of the Arab Spring is its daughter, it fully represents what is referred to as a 'failed state'. Nothing
seems to work if not the systematic failure of all that can lead to an
agreement between the warring factions for the common good: there is no
health care system, there is no state apparatus, there are, however, two
armies and two Governments, of those apparently He did not have enough.In all this riot the only happy period is the unhappy Islamic State grinds allow the defects of a west absent and hesitant. The Caliphate works great, is a perfectly oiled machine, is a country that works in a state that does not exist.It
is almost a year that Europe and the world look to Libya with suspicion
and indifference, as if the situation could be resolved by itself at
any moment. Since February 2015 there are rumors of a new military mission to
defeat the men of the Caliphate, but by the registrars from around the
world resonates only silence.In general mmobility, UN designated Bernardino León
Special Representative for Libya, the man who was supposed to give a
policy for the country and to lay the foundations of his rebirth.When
he arrived in Libya, Leon mandate international credibility was a little higher than nothing, no one believed possible to
reach an agreement among the myriad stakeholders.
Leon, with a momentum that has few equals in the history of modern diplomacy, did not surrender to failure in advance, and immediately made it clear to the parties that it intended to terminate the mandate without agreement.
Until July this year, it did not seem possible to find any solution that saw Tripoli and Tobruk finally agreed on all points programmed. The signing of the cease-fire this summer has raised hopes that eventually there was indeed hope. Not without difficulty these two months have passed so stormy, with the IS at the entrance claiming her insatiable appetite for conquest and two Governments wishing to war with each other first and then the real enemy.UN Representative at first understood as Libya he was working on was not the one we have described in the lessons of Political Science: Libya is a country oriented to the future but looking at the past. And it is in the past that Bernardino Leon found the key to the government of national unity; it is not the future that frightens Libya, but its history. A history made of rival clans, feuds, religion and rules.According to early rumors, the draft agreement provides that both governments of Tobruk and Tripoli will appoint the deputy who will support the new head of a government of national unity, with annual task. It includes: the creation of a legislative assembly unit, the House of Representatives; of a High Council of State, which puts the disputes that may arise between the various institutions; the dismantling of various armed militias, with the establishment of an army unit; a new constitution; and the entry into force of the 'ceasefire'. All points are extremely sensitive, but some more than others.The dismantling of militias is a key point strongly backed by Government of Tobruk, which continues to proclaim only real authorized and reliable interlocutor with the West. In Libya there are 140 tribes scattered throughout the country ready to arm themselves to the teeth on the black market if the new Unit Govt should impose their suppression. We have already had occasion in the course of the last few decades to see its effect in the annihilation of various clans and factions in occupied territory: Afghanistan screams still deeply not to repeat this error.The clans and militias should be integrated into the process of political maturity of the country, because in the future no opponent with ambitions authoritarian exploit their discontent to gain ground. Bernardino Leon now understood this quite well, and has called several times at the table of negotiations representatives of the largest factions in Libya. The same ideological factions that began the Arab Spring and that gave the final blow to the regime of Colonel. The 85% of the population is divided between clans rooted Warfala, Zintan, Rojahan, Orfella, Riaina, to Farjane, to Zuway, Tebu, Berbers and Tuareg.The second interesting point is that concerning the formation of an Army unit, presumably for the double purpose to suppress the militias of the caliphate and independent ones that undermine the country, of which we spoke earlier. After the fall of the Gaddafi regime is a law was passed in May 2013 whereby the so-called 'political isolation' for the supporters of the former regime (supporters in any capacity); crucial to prevent the supporters of the Rais would pass from one branch to another without restraint, a situation that eventually presented with the spearhead of the government of Tobruk: General Haftar, gheddafiano convinced.Before you even understand what will be the fate of the Army unit would be good to understand what fate will befall Haftar, a key to Tobruk and the key issue for Tripoli. This latter asks for forced removal of General Haftar from any position of power, but at same time for the general Tobruk is the only bulwark able to counter the military power of Daesh.Haftar militia, composed, probably, of about 30,000 units, is mainly based on former members of Gadafi Army reintegrated into what should have been the new Libyan security apparatus, but characterized by a deep aversion to new comrades from revolutionary militias. The general is now the leader of a coalition of nationalist tendencies, which brings together some tribes and pieces of what's left of Libyan institutions, which is opposed to radical militias and close to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is allied with the militia from Zintan.Not only Haftar is unbridled struggle against Daesh, but there are also many other militias fighting simultaneously and equally fierce. First, I would cite the Libyan Shield, which actually is an umbrella organization that brings together numerous militias, linked also to the Islamist and Salafist universe based on units territorially structured and working for the maintenance of law while having combat roles. The militia also collects reality Islamist radicals, and tends to be considered close to Muslim Brotherhood.Cyrenaica, is on February 17 Martyrs Brigade, which has a few thousand people and significant arsenal, thanks to the control of numerous barracks located across the region in the past belonging to the Gaddafi regime. The Brigade of Islamist trends.Considering that none of the militant groups called into question intends to fight alongside their archenemy, it is not entirely wrong to think that there is a great difficulty in maintaining a standard military beyond the dreams of decency. Not to mention that the problem of the official framework is still open: official youth and with no experience, or grant an exception to the Law May 2013 and we keep Gaddafi generals with some prior experience?But, more important question: who will be entrusted with the control panel? Tobruk and Tripoli? And if it were given to both, how supporters of opposing factions will react? Daesh is already in their home and these questions still do not have a shred of response.Many argue that Bernardino Leon work could be more effective and less scattered, but with hindsight, are all capable of dealing with the problem. Analysts who railed most vehemently against UN representative are economic ones, who support the undeniable link between the country's economy in crumbs and security.
Rais policies created big problem to the industrial and economic structure of the country, which has taken the road of blind socialism without initiative. Just because there was no economic initiative and the facilities were completely inadequate, almost all of the professional manpower has decided to leave the country, allowing rampant corruption and an increasingly hostile political class.
At social level, the result was economic inequality, corruption, resentment and loss of hope, which have slowly poisoned the country.
Instead of focusing exclusively on the issue of security, it would require a more equitable distribution of resources and a consequent reduction of social inequality: creating jobs and serious opportunities for young people, so that they are not forced to leave the country, and who have a viable alternative to dangerous option of enrollment in the militias which pay cash in exchange for armed loyalty; replenish the unions, so that there is greater protection for regular workers and their right to fair wages, so as to eradicate the widespread mentality of patronage, dependence on state subsidies and trafficking, which is used because of unsustainable prices of some basic necessities such as food and medicines.In addition to a strong difference of opinion on several points, leading the work of Bernardino Leon is likely to be jeopardised in the future struggle against Daesh, because if political work unquestionably favors this country freedom, it also opens the door to great question of international military mission to counter the advance of the Caliphate.The only possibility for a military mission was not a new Vietnam but just a national unity govt ready to dialogue with the military in the field. Because contrary to what is believed, a military mission is made also of dialogue among parties to decide jointly the objectives to be pursued and any criticality. On the European side the party would be the mission commander almost surely with French or US guide; but on the other side, who? Having two Governments, of which only one recognized, it would open a mission on paper, but in reality they would had two: one in Tobruk and another in Tripoli. Inevitably, each side would have pointed out to the international community a random unequal treatment, which eventually would lead to the failure of the mission.Once Unity govt is made, time is ripe in January 2016 to send ground troops with air support able to support local troops. Undoubtedly it will be a very complex path, with strategic obstacles not easy, but in many respects necessary to stem the advance of the caliphate.To those who think a mission can be only air, remember that Saudi Arabia in Yemen is having any kind of improvement in the situation, but at least its military analysts have lost credibility in all fronts. An air war does not discriminate between civilians and terrorists, and risks creating widespread discontent as to undermine the work of the international community. The bombings make us take away from poverty and the destruction of a country to its knees, by the death and suffering; but do not solve the problem. The problem of terrorism must be fought first and foremost on the political level, by establishing a joint future for the country after the military intervention, and in the second analysis on the military itself.The Italian Govt had reiterated its interest in September to take charge of unified command of the mission, because it is directly involved in the historical interests of the country.
A situation similar to that of Somalia, except that in Mogadishu were waiting with red carpets and wide smiles while Libya no! In Libya, we expect a situation that leads to the guerrilla or you shoot or you are killed.
Libyan public opinion is not ready to face neither the shots nor the dead, and military leaders are not the idea of taking the blame for failure. Tactically speaking Italy should call in the sense most of its Army, replenish with fresh men and the so-called highly trained Enty Force (Thunderbolt, for instance), and then rebuild a big logistical apparatus both in motherland and in operating theater. Economically, this would lead with hard cash, which should come also out of the coffers of Italian Government, the Ministry of Defense and the Economic Development.Ready or not, if we were to miraculously give the summit of whole mission, this money must come to the surface. Speaking in more realistic terms, you should leave the task in hand to our French colleagues who already have proven not having to bend in front of unilateral international operating decisions. Not that the French are better than Italian military, but they have a policy that supports the troops, agreeing that these are used as an instrument of foreign policy. This point makes French troops more appropriate for the situation that we will face in Libya.Undoubtedly a significant role will also have US troops, but since the back of the government Obama faced with the difficulties of Middle East, let it be the Europeans to play the game. Not only that America is already involved politically on the Syrian front, which has many more interests at stake.Only certain matter is Libyan hope to write a better future than what we have seen for three years now, giving homage to so tormented Arab spring.
Leon, with a momentum that has few equals in the history of modern diplomacy, did not surrender to failure in advance, and immediately made it clear to the parties that it intended to terminate the mandate without agreement.
Until July this year, it did not seem possible to find any solution that saw Tripoli and Tobruk finally agreed on all points programmed. The signing of the cease-fire this summer has raised hopes that eventually there was indeed hope. Not without difficulty these two months have passed so stormy, with the IS at the entrance claiming her insatiable appetite for conquest and two Governments wishing to war with each other first and then the real enemy.UN Representative at first understood as Libya he was working on was not the one we have described in the lessons of Political Science: Libya is a country oriented to the future but looking at the past. And it is in the past that Bernardino Leon found the key to the government of national unity; it is not the future that frightens Libya, but its history. A history made of rival clans, feuds, religion and rules.According to early rumors, the draft agreement provides that both governments of Tobruk and Tripoli will appoint the deputy who will support the new head of a government of national unity, with annual task. It includes: the creation of a legislative assembly unit, the House of Representatives; of a High Council of State, which puts the disputes that may arise between the various institutions; the dismantling of various armed militias, with the establishment of an army unit; a new constitution; and the entry into force of the 'ceasefire'. All points are extremely sensitive, but some more than others.The dismantling of militias is a key point strongly backed by Government of Tobruk, which continues to proclaim only real authorized and reliable interlocutor with the West. In Libya there are 140 tribes scattered throughout the country ready to arm themselves to the teeth on the black market if the new Unit Govt should impose their suppression. We have already had occasion in the course of the last few decades to see its effect in the annihilation of various clans and factions in occupied territory: Afghanistan screams still deeply not to repeat this error.The clans and militias should be integrated into the process of political maturity of the country, because in the future no opponent with ambitions authoritarian exploit their discontent to gain ground. Bernardino Leon now understood this quite well, and has called several times at the table of negotiations representatives of the largest factions in Libya. The same ideological factions that began the Arab Spring and that gave the final blow to the regime of Colonel. The 85% of the population is divided between clans rooted Warfala, Zintan, Rojahan, Orfella, Riaina, to Farjane, to Zuway, Tebu, Berbers and Tuareg.The second interesting point is that concerning the formation of an Army unit, presumably for the double purpose to suppress the militias of the caliphate and independent ones that undermine the country, of which we spoke earlier. After the fall of the Gaddafi regime is a law was passed in May 2013 whereby the so-called 'political isolation' for the supporters of the former regime (supporters in any capacity); crucial to prevent the supporters of the Rais would pass from one branch to another without restraint, a situation that eventually presented with the spearhead of the government of Tobruk: General Haftar, gheddafiano convinced.Before you even understand what will be the fate of the Army unit would be good to understand what fate will befall Haftar, a key to Tobruk and the key issue for Tripoli. This latter asks for forced removal of General Haftar from any position of power, but at same time for the general Tobruk is the only bulwark able to counter the military power of Daesh.Haftar militia, composed, probably, of about 30,000 units, is mainly based on former members of Gadafi Army reintegrated into what should have been the new Libyan security apparatus, but characterized by a deep aversion to new comrades from revolutionary militias. The general is now the leader of a coalition of nationalist tendencies, which brings together some tribes and pieces of what's left of Libyan institutions, which is opposed to radical militias and close to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is allied with the militia from Zintan.Not only Haftar is unbridled struggle against Daesh, but there are also many other militias fighting simultaneously and equally fierce. First, I would cite the Libyan Shield, which actually is an umbrella organization that brings together numerous militias, linked also to the Islamist and Salafist universe based on units territorially structured and working for the maintenance of law while having combat roles. The militia also collects reality Islamist radicals, and tends to be considered close to Muslim Brotherhood.Cyrenaica, is on February 17 Martyrs Brigade, which has a few thousand people and significant arsenal, thanks to the control of numerous barracks located across the region in the past belonging to the Gaddafi regime. The Brigade of Islamist trends.Considering that none of the militant groups called into question intends to fight alongside their archenemy, it is not entirely wrong to think that there is a great difficulty in maintaining a standard military beyond the dreams of decency. Not to mention that the problem of the official framework is still open: official youth and with no experience, or grant an exception to the Law May 2013 and we keep Gaddafi generals with some prior experience?But, more important question: who will be entrusted with the control panel? Tobruk and Tripoli? And if it were given to both, how supporters of opposing factions will react? Daesh is already in their home and these questions still do not have a shred of response.Many argue that Bernardino Leon work could be more effective and less scattered, but with hindsight, are all capable of dealing with the problem. Analysts who railed most vehemently against UN representative are economic ones, who support the undeniable link between the country's economy in crumbs and security.
Rais policies created big problem to the industrial and economic structure of the country, which has taken the road of blind socialism without initiative. Just because there was no economic initiative and the facilities were completely inadequate, almost all of the professional manpower has decided to leave the country, allowing rampant corruption and an increasingly hostile political class.
At social level, the result was economic inequality, corruption, resentment and loss of hope, which have slowly poisoned the country.
Instead of focusing exclusively on the issue of security, it would require a more equitable distribution of resources and a consequent reduction of social inequality: creating jobs and serious opportunities for young people, so that they are not forced to leave the country, and who have a viable alternative to dangerous option of enrollment in the militias which pay cash in exchange for armed loyalty; replenish the unions, so that there is greater protection for regular workers and their right to fair wages, so as to eradicate the widespread mentality of patronage, dependence on state subsidies and trafficking, which is used because of unsustainable prices of some basic necessities such as food and medicines.In addition to a strong difference of opinion on several points, leading the work of Bernardino Leon is likely to be jeopardised in the future struggle against Daesh, because if political work unquestionably favors this country freedom, it also opens the door to great question of international military mission to counter the advance of the Caliphate.The only possibility for a military mission was not a new Vietnam but just a national unity govt ready to dialogue with the military in the field. Because contrary to what is believed, a military mission is made also of dialogue among parties to decide jointly the objectives to be pursued and any criticality. On the European side the party would be the mission commander almost surely with French or US guide; but on the other side, who? Having two Governments, of which only one recognized, it would open a mission on paper, but in reality they would had two: one in Tobruk and another in Tripoli. Inevitably, each side would have pointed out to the international community a random unequal treatment, which eventually would lead to the failure of the mission.Once Unity govt is made, time is ripe in January 2016 to send ground troops with air support able to support local troops. Undoubtedly it will be a very complex path, with strategic obstacles not easy, but in many respects necessary to stem the advance of the caliphate.To those who think a mission can be only air, remember that Saudi Arabia in Yemen is having any kind of improvement in the situation, but at least its military analysts have lost credibility in all fronts. An air war does not discriminate between civilians and terrorists, and risks creating widespread discontent as to undermine the work of the international community. The bombings make us take away from poverty and the destruction of a country to its knees, by the death and suffering; but do not solve the problem. The problem of terrorism must be fought first and foremost on the political level, by establishing a joint future for the country after the military intervention, and in the second analysis on the military itself.The Italian Govt had reiterated its interest in September to take charge of unified command of the mission, because it is directly involved in the historical interests of the country.
A situation similar to that of Somalia, except that in Mogadishu were waiting with red carpets and wide smiles while Libya no! In Libya, we expect a situation that leads to the guerrilla or you shoot or you are killed.
Libyan public opinion is not ready to face neither the shots nor the dead, and military leaders are not the idea of taking the blame for failure. Tactically speaking Italy should call in the sense most of its Army, replenish with fresh men and the so-called highly trained Enty Force (Thunderbolt, for instance), and then rebuild a big logistical apparatus both in motherland and in operating theater. Economically, this would lead with hard cash, which should come also out of the coffers of Italian Government, the Ministry of Defense and the Economic Development.Ready or not, if we were to miraculously give the summit of whole mission, this money must come to the surface. Speaking in more realistic terms, you should leave the task in hand to our French colleagues who already have proven not having to bend in front of unilateral international operating decisions. Not that the French are better than Italian military, but they have a policy that supports the troops, agreeing that these are used as an instrument of foreign policy. This point makes French troops more appropriate for the situation that we will face in Libya.Undoubtedly a significant role will also have US troops, but since the back of the government Obama faced with the difficulties of Middle East, let it be the Europeans to play the game. Not only that America is already involved politically on the Syrian front, which has many more interests at stake.Only certain matter is Libyan hope to write a better future than what we have seen for three years now, giving homage to so tormented Arab spring.
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