After the visit to France last week Libyan PM Serraj a diplomatic meeting was hastily arranged on Monday in Paris. Key regional actors involved in the crisis, including neighboring Egypt were invited. The researcher (and friend) Ali Bensaad, professor at the French Institute of Geopolitics is back from a fortnight study trip to Libya. He returns to the battle of Sirte - where he attended the fighting between the brigades which are placed under GNA authority and the jihadists of IS - and the political stalemate between East and west of the country.
In what state did you find Libya?
The economic situation deteriorated further (I was in Tripoli 5 months ago). This is obvious with the question of foreign exchange on the black market currency. In 5 months, the date of my last visit, the value of the Libyan dinar has been halved. The fall of the dinar affects the prices of essential commodities. There is also a shortage of gasoline. For Libya, oil producing country, has very few refineries. There are long queues at petrol stations. But the biggest problem is definitely the lack of liquidity. The withdrawal is limited to 200 dinars per day (about 25 euros). This lack of currency creates tension, everybody complains. In addition, power cuts have worsened. They now last six to eight hours a day. So there is a paradox: we feel a disappointment abt PM Serraj supported by the international community, but also, more than ever, a great need for stabilization ... currently embodied by same Serraj.
What have you observed in Sirte?
The city is emptied of its inhabitants, it is just a battlefield. But the organization and mobilization of Misratis, which account for two thirds of antijihadistes fighters, is impressive. An example: you can drink, eat and refuel anywhere. They are remarkably well organized. The clashes are very deadly and their losses are considerable. In fact, half of the deaths among the loyalist forces are victims of sniper bullets. And one-third because of bombs or explosives vehicles.
Opposite members Daesh leaks. Besides, they cannot really do that. The sea, in particular, is closely watched. There are no prisoners, the jihadists are fighting to the end. Found charred corpses fighting position. There, I myself witnessed a suicide car bomb. The driver was fully plastered: even they are wounded continue to "fight"!
Half of the Islamic State fighters are Tunisians. There are also sub-Saharans, Algerians, but very few Libyans: Daesh is an external transplant, who eventually unlikely to take. The IS has no future in Libya, in my opinion. However, I am much more worried about extremist groups in the East, or the forces of Al-Qaeda in the south. People of AQIM [al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb], for example, have a family-tribal relay in Libya and experience the desert. Mokhtar Belmokhtar [Algerian jihadist behind numerous attacks in the Sahel] stayed in the East.
How was received confirmation by François Hollande, abt the presence of French troops in the east of Libya?
The crash of three French soldiers in Benghazi, which revealed their activity, had a cataclysmic effect on the rise of anti-Western sentiment in Libya. This discourse on the duplicity of France, which supports El-Serraj one side but that helps the General Haftar [the strong man of the East, which refuses to recognize the authority of the government of national unity] of another, I heard everywhere. At the airport, as a French citizen, it also earned me a bit "shaken". The Tripoli airport held by the militia of Abdel Raouf Kara, a Salafist. The French military engagement alongside Haftar restored grist to the Islamists. The conspiracy theory goes, especially on "The West has pushed the brigades of Misrata [faithful to the unity government] to attack the Islamic State in Sirte to weaken and help his friend Haftar." The encounter in Paris on Monday, which will lead to a French government renewed support faiez el-Serraj certainly aims to improve the image of France.
Khalifa Haftar: Why has he suddenly attacked oil facilities from the center of the country?
I think he wanted to break the cornered a process towards a compromise. You have to put this offensive General Haftar on oil terminals in context: his allies from the town of Zintan came to lift the blockade on gas pipelines; in the south, the Toubou and Tuareg were reconciled; negotiations on the recognition of the unity government by the Parliament of Tobruk took place in Tunis. Above all, according to my information, a delegation was sent Misratis Cyrenaica [in the east] in great secrecy to offer Haftar a compromise, a sort of directory where the general would have occupied the post of minister Defense ... Or his troops to attack this time! This is very worrying. This means it will not just be defense minister, as was thought before. He probably would accept this position in the context of an armed Turkish, not subject to the government. Politically, he was cornered. So he moved things on the military field.
Is he now in a strong position?
The symbolic point of view, oil terminals are important. Being the source of the wealth of Libya, it counts. But the speech Haftar on reopening of terminals is a shell game. He insists: "It is the fault of Ibrahim Jadhran [the leader of the oil installations guards] if oil did not flow, I repaired the situation." This is wrong! It is above all when Jadhran was his ally that the situation was blocked. When Jadhran had rallied PM Serraj, things had begun to unlock themselves.
Haftar however strengthened because he has a popular base much wider than before. It does not control all the East, but he brought security in some cities, like Benghazi, although the price was very heavy. Entire neighborhoods were destroyed. He dismissed all the mayors to appoint military governors. Among the groups fighting Haftar, these are Islamic extremists who eventually take over. Now people are afraid of them, so they fall behind Haftar. Even in the West, some officials now recognize hint that having assisted Islamic brigades in the east was a mistake.
Is he toward federalization of Libya?
The Libyan nation-state exists. It showed his resilience in history. I absolutely do not believe in the possibility of partition of Libya. Khalifa Haftar himself has no secessionist project. As for the viability of a federal project, the Libyans do not. Federalist members are a minority, they just a nuisance capacity.
Can a direct confrontation between East and West around the oil sites take place?
I do not believe either. Serraj and Misratis [in the West] have realized that it was not in their interest to directly confront the Haftar army. This would even against-productive: such a battle would be perceived as an attack of the West against the East, it federates the inhabitants of Cyrenaica around Haftar by giving a regional dimension to the battle.
As for Haftar, his troops would not make the weight. In reality, he is a poor general: he lost against Chadians in 1987, he failed to crush the Islamists in East Libya for over two years, and he draws strength mainly Toubou fighters ... There no military solution to the Libyan crisis because no one can really take over. They must find a political formula, it is the only solution. In this country, it is always possible: Libya is a country of nomads. The political nomadism is seen as a virtue, as strange as it may seem to Western eyes. ... In Sahara, two qualities are important: endurance and adaptability.
In what state did you find Libya?
The economic situation deteriorated further (I was in Tripoli 5 months ago). This is obvious with the question of foreign exchange on the black market currency. In 5 months, the date of my last visit, the value of the Libyan dinar has been halved. The fall of the dinar affects the prices of essential commodities. There is also a shortage of gasoline. For Libya, oil producing country, has very few refineries. There are long queues at petrol stations. But the biggest problem is definitely the lack of liquidity. The withdrawal is limited to 200 dinars per day (about 25 euros). This lack of currency creates tension, everybody complains. In addition, power cuts have worsened. They now last six to eight hours a day. So there is a paradox: we feel a disappointment abt PM Serraj supported by the international community, but also, more than ever, a great need for stabilization ... currently embodied by same Serraj.
What have you observed in Sirte?
The city is emptied of its inhabitants, it is just a battlefield. But the organization and mobilization of Misratis, which account for two thirds of antijihadistes fighters, is impressive. An example: you can drink, eat and refuel anywhere. They are remarkably well organized. The clashes are very deadly and their losses are considerable. In fact, half of the deaths among the loyalist forces are victims of sniper bullets. And one-third because of bombs or explosives vehicles.
Opposite members Daesh leaks. Besides, they cannot really do that. The sea, in particular, is closely watched. There are no prisoners, the jihadists are fighting to the end. Found charred corpses fighting position. There, I myself witnessed a suicide car bomb. The driver was fully plastered: even they are wounded continue to "fight"!
Half of the Islamic State fighters are Tunisians. There are also sub-Saharans, Algerians, but very few Libyans: Daesh is an external transplant, who eventually unlikely to take. The IS has no future in Libya, in my opinion. However, I am much more worried about extremist groups in the East, or the forces of Al-Qaeda in the south. People of AQIM [al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb], for example, have a family-tribal relay in Libya and experience the desert. Mokhtar Belmokhtar [Algerian jihadist behind numerous attacks in the Sahel] stayed in the East.
How was received confirmation by François Hollande, abt the presence of French troops in the east of Libya?
The crash of three French soldiers in Benghazi, which revealed their activity, had a cataclysmic effect on the rise of anti-Western sentiment in Libya. This discourse on the duplicity of France, which supports El-Serraj one side but that helps the General Haftar [the strong man of the East, which refuses to recognize the authority of the government of national unity] of another, I heard everywhere. At the airport, as a French citizen, it also earned me a bit "shaken". The Tripoli airport held by the militia of Abdel Raouf Kara, a Salafist. The French military engagement alongside Haftar restored grist to the Islamists. The conspiracy theory goes, especially on "The West has pushed the brigades of Misrata [faithful to the unity government] to attack the Islamic State in Sirte to weaken and help his friend Haftar." The encounter in Paris on Monday, which will lead to a French government renewed support faiez el-Serraj certainly aims to improve the image of France.
Khalifa Haftar: Why has he suddenly attacked oil facilities from the center of the country?
I think he wanted to break the cornered a process towards a compromise. You have to put this offensive General Haftar on oil terminals in context: his allies from the town of Zintan came to lift the blockade on gas pipelines; in the south, the Toubou and Tuareg were reconciled; negotiations on the recognition of the unity government by the Parliament of Tobruk took place in Tunis. Above all, according to my information, a delegation was sent Misratis Cyrenaica [in the east] in great secrecy to offer Haftar a compromise, a sort of directory where the general would have occupied the post of minister Defense ... Or his troops to attack this time! This is very worrying. This means it will not just be defense minister, as was thought before. He probably would accept this position in the context of an armed Turkish, not subject to the government. Politically, he was cornered. So he moved things on the military field.
Is he now in a strong position?
The symbolic point of view, oil terminals are important. Being the source of the wealth of Libya, it counts. But the speech Haftar on reopening of terminals is a shell game. He insists: "It is the fault of Ibrahim Jadhran [the leader of the oil installations guards] if oil did not flow, I repaired the situation." This is wrong! It is above all when Jadhran was his ally that the situation was blocked. When Jadhran had rallied PM Serraj, things had begun to unlock themselves.
Haftar however strengthened because he has a popular base much wider than before. It does not control all the East, but he brought security in some cities, like Benghazi, although the price was very heavy. Entire neighborhoods were destroyed. He dismissed all the mayors to appoint military governors. Among the groups fighting Haftar, these are Islamic extremists who eventually take over. Now people are afraid of them, so they fall behind Haftar. Even in the West, some officials now recognize hint that having assisted Islamic brigades in the east was a mistake.
Is he toward federalization of Libya?
The Libyan nation-state exists. It showed his resilience in history. I absolutely do not believe in the possibility of partition of Libya. Khalifa Haftar himself has no secessionist project. As for the viability of a federal project, the Libyans do not. Federalist members are a minority, they just a nuisance capacity.
Can a direct confrontation between East and West around the oil sites take place?
I do not believe either. Serraj and Misratis [in the West] have realized that it was not in their interest to directly confront the Haftar army. This would even against-productive: such a battle would be perceived as an attack of the West against the East, it federates the inhabitants of Cyrenaica around Haftar by giving a regional dimension to the battle.
As for Haftar, his troops would not make the weight. In reality, he is a poor general: he lost against Chadians in 1987, he failed to crush the Islamists in East Libya for over two years, and he draws strength mainly Toubou fighters ... There no military solution to the Libyan crisis because no one can really take over. They must find a political formula, it is the only solution. In this country, it is always possible: Libya is a country of nomads. The political nomadism is seen as a virtue, as strange as it may seem to Western eyes. ... In Sahara, two qualities are important: endurance and adaptability.
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