LIBYA 4.3.2017

Al Sarraj has flown to Moscow. With this simple act the West acknowledges the impasse of the Libyan crisis and relies on other solutions.

Let's step back.

The government in Tripoli recognized with trumpets and drums by the UN, the US and the EU actually has no powers. It is an almost virtual Executive which administers less than a third of the country and is more accountable to Islamic placards heavily penetrated by fundamentalism. In order to survive (in the real sense of the term), Al Sarraj has to answer to the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic bloc dominant galaxy that currently dominates in Tripoli with the consent of US and Britain. Not all the territory is under control. In addition to the Berber of Zintan, an ally of the first hour of Tobruk Parliament, the regions toward the Niger and those close to the borders with Tunisia and Algeria have a highway of arms trafficking destined for the Sahel and to be intended for human ' Europe. In the same areas is very strong Islamist presence.

Endorsement received by Al Sarraj, after 15 months from the agreements taken in Morocco, is producing its fruits: absolute zero.

Cyrenaica in turn continues the path independent of Tripoli, with General Haftar increasingly linked to Egypt Al Sisi and by the end of 2016, officially recognized as a partner by Moscow. In other words: Libya that the United States and Europe have done everything to divide despite the declarations of intent, it is today. de facto divided

In this context, Russia has played cunning, leveraging decades of special relations with Arab countries, especially with some of the Mediterranean region; among these are distinguished from Algeria, Egypt (Sadat pre and post Mubarak) and of course Libya, which under Gaddafi was already a head of the Moscow bridge.

Despite the alarmism of some media that shout to the landing of the Russians in North Africa, just a simple book of history to understand: the Russians, strong structural links in the area, are filling a diplomatic vacuum generated by six years of war and instability.

The lack of a credible national state and the lack of communication between  "AngloItalianIslamic" Tripoli and Cyrenaica, Egyptian yarn, have created a vacuum in which continues the illegal export of hydrocarbons and the unchallenged domination of local militias.

The standoff punctuated by constant conflicts, can be unlocked by the only party potentially able to speak in Tripoli and Tobruk, ie Moscow.

The relationship between Haftar and Russia has been discussed for months. Jailbird was the common weave with Egypt Al Sisi, the sworn enemy of the Muslim Brotherhood and thus of the clique in power in Tripoli. Downloaded from the USA which has been pampered for twenty years, the 74 year-old general is the only real opposition to the spread of radical Islam in Libya. In a few years he has grouped all nostalgic former Qaddafi regime, identified mostly with officers, officials and secular, middle-class paintings.

The rapid convergence of recent times between Cairo and Moscow is now the largest strategic guarantee for Haftar, that on the Mediterranean shore can also count on the support of Algeria, another longtime friend of Russia, whose stockpiles recently rimpinguati, they could serve as tank for those militiamen of Cyrenaica.

As we said at the top, the real news, however, is the journey of Al Sarraj in Moscow, to be considered as a kind of Western diplomatic abdication.

Behind the effort of the "premier" Libya is the political bridge between Turkey and Russia. It is no coincidence that the concrete attempts at contact between Tripolitania and Cyrenaica we started precisely in parallel to thaw between Ankara and Moscow last summer. Turkey is the main sponsor of the Muslim Brotherhood, which controls Tripoli. In summary, if they wanted the Turks and Russians, Libya would have a serious chance to regain stability.

The stakes are enormous, primarily for economic reasons. The journey of Al Sarraj in Russia comes a few days an agreement between the National Oil Corporation and Rosneft,the oil giants controlled respectively from Tripoli and Moscow. The agreement provides for the joint exploitation of Libyan resources and echoed the Russian economic interests in the Arab country, put into serious question after the elimination of Gaddafi and the arrival of Western multinationals. In this regard it is worth remembering that Rosneft is owned 50% directly from the Russian government.

Another aspect that could benefit from it is certainly the traffic of "refugees" in the hands of Islamist armed groups and local and Italian organized crime. Among the many reasons which have hitherto prevented Libya to return to a semblance of normality is the fact that many do not agree. Suffice it to say that today the country is the African end of the sale of "migrants" from armoured while Gaddafi's Libya did not go out even a fly.

In this context it should be mentioned the Italian-Libyan agreement signed in Rome on February 2 from Gentiloni Prime Minister and Al Sarraj. The agreement provides for cooperation to stem illegal immigration. For how can there be good faith between the parties, the Memorandum collides with the reality of the facts: on one side there is a leader who does not control the country that undertakes (Libya); the other a country that does not control its own borders (Italy). Just Italy, heavily involved Libyan extractive economy and deployed on the front row with the 'Operation Hippocrates in Misrata, is among the countries that would benefit more from a release of the Libyan deadlock.

The match is to be played. The contact between Al Sarraj and Moscow at present seems the only real possibility of thinking of an effective agreement between the government of Tripoli and Tobruk Parliament. It remains to see the reaction of the minor subjects, almost never completely aligned to the two main poles of the Libyan crisis.

That's yesterday's news that the jihadi militias in Benghazi have torn Libyan National Army (the Haftar forces based in Tobruk) oil terminals at Ras Lanuf and Sidra, part of the Crescent Petroleum of Cyrenaica conquered by Haftar in September. It did not bode well.

END