LIBYAN WARS?

In Libya, the surprise recovery by extremist Islamist militias of two oil fields in the east aborted all efforts led by the countries neighboring Libya to meet Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj Tripoli and Marshal Khalifa Haftar. In the absence of dialogue the drums of war are heard again.

       

If one believes a senior Libyan forces is led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, preparations are complete. Forces continue to arrive in the increasing oil before battle. Two oil fields on the four that make up the oil are increasing, since March 4, at the hands of Benghazi defense brigades and other Islamist militias.

A new war for power in Libya is committed. Islamist militia meanwhile, announced in a press conference in Misrata that they will continue their march to liberate Benghazi. To the west of this city, a war between them Haftar forces for over two and a half years. These brigades said they could have 4000 officers.

Many experts consider that it is difficult to dislodge the Islamists Haftar oilfield after losing this battle, but the Libyan land is viscous: what is impossible today may be possible tomorrow and vice versa.

Alliances of interest rate variation

recent months, the attitude judged as "dictatorial" by domestic allies of the Marshal, had removed him significant support: the eastern tribes who supported last September to take oil fields, without shedding a drop of blood, supporters of the old regime, Sudanese fighters Justice and equality but also the Libyan civil society after its decision to ban from leaving the country for men and women under 45 years old.

Haftar finds herself weakened. Abroad, he embarrassed his ally, Egypt, canceling at the last minute a scheduled meeting last month between him and Prime Minister of the government of Tripoli Fayez el-Sarraj. By uniting with the Salafis of Saudi trend, he also angered Egypt.

Haftar: a weakened position

The strong man is the Libyan, who was able to juggle difficult alliances, lost several of its supports. It is now weakened and this is a way for his allies to "reason with him,"said an expert. And as on the map of Libya, the master is the one who owns the oil fields, the new distribution of roles between different Libyan protagonists go through the land, to the detriment of a political solution.

The defeat of Haftar March 4 has changed the situation in Libya. He lost the war for oil. Now, each party will seek victory before going back to the table of national dialogue.