ITALIAN 3RD WAR IN LIBYA?

Continue to multiply the elements that seem to indicate the beginning for a military operation countdown against IS in Libya.

Italian defense minister, Roberta Pinotti, spoke explicitly of plan for international military intervention in Libya involving Italian and allies in an interview with Corriere della Sera. In recent months, "we have worked more closely with Americans, British and French. We all agree that we must avoid uncoordinated actions. But there is a more concrete information gathering and drafting of possible plans of action based on foreseeable risks, the minister said.

Difficult to understand, however, what might be the timing of operation and its specific objectives, at least from Italian Government viewpoint.

On the one hand Pinotti said that "we cannot imagine a spring with a Libyan situation still stalled," but in same time stated that "I would not speak of acceleration, much less one-sided."

In recent days many rumors leaked about Washington, London and Paris acceleration which - also - have already special forces to train and advise local troops, particularly in Tobruk and forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar and perhaps militias.

The need to address IS rapid expansion, which is receiving reinforcements and volunteers from Sahel and North Africa, could become a priority for our allies also for need, reiterated several times in Rome, to allow new GNA to settle in Tripoli.

Pentagon plans. partly revealed by sources cited by The New York Times, it seems to involve air strikes against Sirte and the strongholds of the Islamic State combined with targeted raids of special forces and presence of military advisers to train the local militia.

A war without "boots on the ground", or with a limited presence of western land forces, which looks like the one in place for half a year in Syria and Iraq against IS proved so far very little incisive.

it was easier and faster a military action against IS a year ago, when the jihadi militias had not yet rooted in the territory and possessed limited forces.

International intervention could therefore be prolonged but mobilizing a limited number of vehicles and aircraft in order to remove the need for massive Italian bases as happened during the war against Gaddafi regime in 2011 which committed numerous military airports in the South used by NATO aircraft.

The operation against  IS in Libya may have its rear bases in Sigonella (already employed full-time by US) and Trapani (where the Italian Air Force has deployed a pair of Predator drones and fighter AMX 4) but the bulk forces and the same aircraft would probably be deployed in air bases available in Libya, especially in the area of Tobruk and Benghazi.

In recent days, Libyan press revealed that a delegation of military and intelligence Italian "high-level" met general Haftar in al-Marj.

We cannot exclude that visit purpose was also to define the redeployment in same area of  Italian transport, aircraft and troops

About type of intervention Defence Minister Pinotti has spoken of aid and training that Libyans have already indicated as preference for protection when GNA takes office in Tripoli.

These are the objectives that Italy has always declared its intention to pursue claiming the lead multinational intervention.

Besides the fact that GNA has not yet been made, Italian planes have not yet planned military action against IS.

A choice in line with the actions that Italian soldiers engaged in Iraq, where only four bombers Tornado carry out reconnaissance missions.

Italy would seem then called off Pentagon plan for IS attack anticipated by New York Times.

According to reliable sources, forces that Rome could mobilize quickly for its intervention in Libya consist of special forces, paratroopers of Folgore brigade (long kept in reserve for an emergency rapid deployment in Libya) and Navy riflemen brigade Saint Mark with a dozen of AMX fighter bombers, drones and transport planes flanked by helicopters.

Navy has long row in front of Libyan coast with half a dozen ships for Sea Safe operation, to protect ENI offshore platforms and intervene to defend national interests for Melita pipeline Greenstream terminal.