Sunday 28 June 2015

MISUNDERSTOOD (??) JIHAD IN SOUSSE TUNISIA 26.6.2015

Death came with a smile on his face. The killer, black-shirted, with black hair and beard, strolled up Boujaffar beach just like any other tourist out for a day in the sun. Witnesses said he carried a rolled-up parasol. Inside was a fully loaded Kalashnikov.
His first victims were bathers, half-naked and vulnerable in their swimming costumes. Then he moved towards the poolside sun-loungers, shooting as he went.
Once inside the hotel, apparently unopposed by security personnel, he pursued terrified holidaymakers and staff into corridors and lavatories from which, for some, there was no escape. As he fired indiscriminately, survivors said the killer laughed.
For all we know, he was still laughing when he, too, was finally gunned down.
Such cruelty defies reason. There is, on a fundamental human level, no explanation, no justification and no rationale that can help us begin to understand what was going through his mind.
His victims were defenceless. They were old and young. They were children playing on a beach. They were innocents. But all that was irrelevant to him.
Fellow human beings were murdered without warning or compunction.
They came from many countries – Britain, Germany, Tunisia and elsewhere. They were European and Arab, Christian and Muslim.
Above all, they were civilians. They were not soldiers in a war.
Yet, in the killer’s mind, they somehow constituted the enemy. For him, evidently, they deserved to die. Looked at more dispassionately, the reasons why such warped beliefs have apparently poisoned the hearts and twisted the minds of so many young men and women across the Muslim world are less obscured.
Foremost among many causes is the deepening schism between Sunni and Shia Muslims, which lies at the heart of internal conflicts from Iraq to Yemen to Pakistan.
The increasingly infectious intolerance of Sunni hardliners for any perceived deviation from their strict, often erroneous, interpretations of Islam and the Qur’an justifies, in their sick mentality, the killing of all “non-believers”, be they Copts, Alawites, Yazidis, Jews, Turkomen – or Europeans of almost any religious persuasion.
Hence the description on jihadi websites of the Tunisian hotel complex as a “den of vice”. The same absurd label was applied to Tunis’s Bardo Museum, viciously attacked in March.
This civil war, or fitna, within Islam is stoked by myriad grievances and injustices.
They include the chronic, long-term under-development of most Arab countries, which has seen them fall behind other parts of the world in terms of economy, education, healthcare and employment for their ever more numerous and frustrated young people.
The corrupt, authoritarian and undemocratic nature of many regimes in the Muslim world is a powerful driver towards radicalisation and revolt.
Multi-party, pluralist and secular Tunisia, home of the largely thwarted 2011 Arab spring, is a notable exception, which is doubtless why it has been repeatedly targeted.

Then there is the long, sorry history of western intervention in the Middle East, including, most recently, the hapless, disastrous destabilisation of Iraq.
Atop this heap of undirected Middle Eastern misery, fear, anger and religious bigotry – a breeding ground for intolerance and inculcation – stand the ghouls and gangsters of the Islamic State terrorist organisation, the extremists’ extremist mafia of choice.
Isis quickly claimed gloating responsibility for Friday’s carnage in Sousse.
It also ordered the almost simultaneous suicide bomb attack on a Shia mosque in Kuwait that killed 27 people. Based on what we know, it also inspired, if not commanded, the failed attempt to blow up a US-owned factory in France, in which a man was beheaded.
Whether these attacks were co-ordinated hardly matters. The common factor is Isis, which has urged adherents to turn Ramadan into “a month of calamities for non-believers”. Isis is calling for more lone-wolf attacks and more volunteers for martyrdom.
It wants the citizens of countries whose governments support the US-led air campaign against its bases in Syria and Iraq to pay an especially heavy price.
In short, Isis has openly declared itself at war with Britain, its allies and partners, even while these countries and their peoples mostly seem reluctant fully to contemplate, accept or understand the implications. For Isis, the dead in Sousse were combatants, not civilians.
For Isis, the aim is more and bigger atrocities. If Isis can manage it, this summer will be Europe’s summer of fear.
What is to be done? In the first instance, the negative ramifications of the Sousse attack must be understood and, if possible, mitigated.
These likely effects include potential reprisal attacks against Muslim communities, as attempted in the US and France in the past, not least after January’s Charlie Hebdo killings in Paris. When the full extent of the British casualty list becomes clear, possibly the biggest death toll in a single incident since the 7/7 London bombings, there will be much anger as well as grief.
In the meantime, Tunisia’s people and their fragile democracy deserve our consideration. Tourism accounts for 15% of GDP and employs 470,000 people. This vital industry faces collapse. It is in the west’s interest to do all it can to prevent Tunisia following Libya into chronic instability, prompting another surge of migrants across the Mediterranean.
Britain and the west have yet to create a joined-up approach to dealing with Isis and its imitators and emulators. Talk of tightened security does not cut it. An international menace requires an international response.
Visiting the victims, Tunisia’s president, Beji Caid Essebsi, called for a less piecemeal approach. “No country is safe from terrorism. We need a global strategy of all democratic countries,” he said. He is right.
According to the latest US State Department survey, terrorism is booming. The number of terrorist attacks worldwide increased by 39% from 2013 to 2014. While 17,891 people died in 2013, the figure jumped to 32,727 last year. The strength and number of terrorist groups is rising fast. Isis is estimated to command between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters, despite coalition attrition.
No one country can defeat this threat.
Whether the question is how to crush Isis militarily in Syria and Iraq and quash its attempts to spread the conflict to Europe, or how to better assist, develop, educate and befriend the Muslim world, a more concerted, more effective international approach is urgently required. After Sousse, alarm bells are ringing.

Saturday 20 June 2015

UMPTEEN LIBYA ANALYSIS - 20.6.2015

Since Colonel Gaddafi’s fall from power four years ago, Libya’s political situation has been deeply unstable. What started as a fragmented movement to remove Gaddafi from power has developed into a civil war where no group holds a monopoly on power.

With no central authority to manage even the basic functions of government for Libya, dealing with hundreds of thousands of migrants is bound to be a difficult task.

‘Large parts of the country remain ungoverned, or under the control of local militias or criminal gangs – this is particularly the case in the vast Southern regions,’ says Ethan Chorin, a former diplomat who has written two books on Libya.
For the moment, the country is divided between east and west. Legal governing legitimacy belongs to the House of Representatives (HOR), now based in Tobruk. Libya Dawn, a rival coalition of Islamists, anti-Gaddafiists, and militias from the coastal town of Misurata, controls the ‘General National Congress’ (GNC), an unelected entity based in the West.

GNC members split from the HOR after losing heavily in the June 2014 elections and a recent UN mediation effort, known as the Leon Plan, failed to bring the two groups together.
‘In my view, [this was] because it conceded too much to Libya Dawn, without recognising the fundamental legal standing of the HOR – all the while failing to use its power to sanction those elements who disrupted or obstructed the process,’ says Chorin.

Militia power has been an obstacle to securing a stable government in Libya. In the aftermath of Gaddafi’s fall, anyone who claimed to be a member of the ‘thuwwar’, or 2011 revolutionaries, could receive generous subsidies, according to Chorin. These groups, with varied ideological, tribal, religious and criminal motives continued to grow in strength until what remained of central government could no longer contain them.
At the time, money was flowing very freely in Libya. The economy was the fastest growing in the world in 2012, with GDP per capita expanding at 70%. This was a rebound from a dramatic contraction during the struggle to remove Gaddafi.
Libya is almost completely reliant on oil revenue with 92 to 95 per cent of government income coming from hydrocarbons.

Among the militias, Islamist groups have come to prominence in the country’s politics.
‘The moderate-to-radical Islamist groups were not a major force in the early revolution, but climbed into power on the back of the government scaffolding created by non-Islamist coalitions in the wake of the Revolution while being completely rebuffed at the polls,’ says Chorin.

Potential leaders are hard to identify in the current situation. But a stable government isn’t likely to lie with one individual. Chorin suggests an international boost to the HOR is necessary.
‘General Khalifa Heftar, currently the commander of the Libyan National Army, is a controversial figure – if his aspirations to be the next Sisi [Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi] can be reined in, legally and otherwise, he has potentially sufficient national following and strength to assist the HOR in consolidating control. This process wouldn’t be quick,’ says Chorin.

If the West and the international community provide generous, albeit conditional support for the HOR, Chorin believes there would be a chance to avoid complete collapse in Libya. That would mean lifting the arms embargo on the HOR and substantial development assistance, advisory, and development aid.
Until that happens, the chances for a stable Libyan government and a permanent solution to the refugee crisis are low.
END

Tuesday 16 June 2015

West is showing a moderate lack of interest in chaos that reigns in Libya

The West is showing a moderate lack of interest in chaos that reigns in Libya. Italy, former colonial power, sees its politicians screwed into a debate on the provincial division of migrants, while on its doorstep risks unleashing chaos. Europe, primarily  German "engine", has an eye to east, to Ukraine, and has proven so far to consider Libyan issue as a priority. USA, since the days of the revolution against Gaddafi, have tried to keep a tight angle. This carelessness threatens to wreak havoc, not only for Libya itself or on only Mediterranean countries, but the entire European continent.

It is news a few days ago the conquest by Isis of some strategic positions (in particular a power station) near Sirte, a city strategically close to oil wells and from February contention among men in black of Caliphate and militias - loyal to the Islamist government of Tripoli - Misurata. " Islamic State is taking advantage of  situation of serious disintegration of the country," says Leandro Di Natala, researcher of European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center. "For now, still encounters more trouble here than in the scenario Syrian-Iraqi, because in Libya there is the sectarian strife between Sunnis and Shiites that advantage, and why not having - I repeat, for now - access to specific resources, such as oil wells, can not deliver social services (and bribes) to the tribes and the people to buy the support. " Also, but in this situation is not dissimilar to that in Syria, there is an ongoing feud between groups affiliated to the Caliphate and groups linked to al Qaeda. A few days ago a Derna, based Isis in Libya, Caliph's men assassinated the leader of the brigades Majlis al Shura, group Al Qaeda with which they share control of the city, and was followed by violent clashes with dozens of deaths.

These difficulties, while it slowed down the advance of Islamic State, did not prevent it to take advantage of anarchy in which it struggles the country, divided between the Islamist government of Tripoli (close to the Muslim Brotherhood and supported by Turkey and Qatar) and to Tobruk (internationally recognized and strongly supported by Egypt's General Al Sisi), crossed by tribal clashes, a widespread crime and heavily armed. "The bond between terrorist groups and common criminals is very dangerous," continued Di Natala. "The Islamic State probably already can count, as a funding source, illegal immigration, demanding bribes, and some of the profits to criminal organizations that exploit human trafficking. If governments of Tobruk and Tripoli will not find an agreement quickly the situation could further deteriorate: Libya could become a "sanctuary" for terrorists, a place where finance - then yes thanks to oil as well as immigration - , train and plan terrorist attacks against Tunisia, Egypt and even Europe. Do not think, however, that terrorists arrive with boat - hypothesis theoretically possible but highly unlikely for the risks of sea crossing and after-care - much more realistically take a trip or are activated after being already in Italy and have radicalized over the internet. "

But Tobruk and Tripoli seem a long way from an agreement. Even recently, as part of the peace talks in Morocco, representatives of the internationally recognized government have rejected the agreement proposed by the UN representative, Bernardino Leon. Tobruk complains of being penalized - the last draft agreement proposed - compared to Tripoli in the balance organs of the future who will govern the country, and general Haftar - chief of armed forces of legitimate government and iron allied Egypt - not accept being deprived of its role that would go instead to elected person . The final position expressed by the Government of Tobruk is still waiting for the end of talks, in the meantime moved to Berlin, to take an official position.

Feeling - according to several analysts - is that around Libyan case, two factions, simplifying, were created. The first is formed mainly by Western countries and especially in Europe. They want peace to bring under control - even with an EU mission that serves UN endorsement, however, that will not come without agreement between Tripoli and Tobruk - immigration, prevent the advance and the roots of the Islamic State, and the re-integration Libyan oil wells. The second one fan the flames of a clash between the two governments in the country. This faction has a predominant role in the Cairo - probably backed by Saudi Arabia - which can count on the support of general internal Haftar. Egyptian President Al Sisi is in fact expansionist aims in Libya, is an ongoing struggle against the Muslim Brotherhood. The temptation to seize the moment of weakness of Erdogan - President turkish, sponsors of the Brotherhood in Libya and elsewhere in difficulties on the domestic front after the last election in which he lost the absolute majority - could be. From what is emerging from the peace talks under way it seems that the second faction is much more specific than the first.

"The West is clearly not doing enough. The tool to bring the parties to an agreement, "concluded Di Natala," is quite obvious: to guarantee both sides a huge financial gain from the sale of oil. Exports barrels collapsed while violent deaths are soaring. The faction that wants peace has plenty of arguments to be spent and yet it seems that the lack of interest prevail. This will benefit the criminals and the terrorists. " The suspicion that circulates in the environment is that the diplomatic front that does not want peace is much more extensive than it sounds: some Western states do not want to learn to take charge of the immigration issue intervening in Libya, although there was a government of national unity . Others then such and such substantial business with the Saudis - sponsor of Egypt - who might prefer to sabotage negotiations rather than see fade billion euro. Still others caress the idea to support Egypt's efforts and Haftar to annihilate Tripoli government and groups that support him to have in the future as a stable partner, although undemocratic, military dictatorship. Without a burst of commitment from the powers that peace should, hopes for peace are in short to a flicker.

Sunday 14 June 2015

LIBYA SEEN FROM USA - 13.6.2015

The canned introduction to Charlotte Alfred’s very good roundup of Libya news at the Huffington Post declares the purpose of the column to be spotlighting “one overlooked aspect of the stories that made news in recent days.” The story of what is happening in post-Obama, post-Clinton Libya isn’t “overlooked” — it is being deliberately, aggressively ignored.

Her adoring media would not want to trouble Mrs. Clinton’s big campaign relaunch this weekend by dwelling on the incredible foreign policy disaster she inflicted upon the world, now would it?
Libya is more Hillary Clinton’s disaster than Barack Obama’s, although that does not let him off the hook for agreeing to her push for intervention. Neither of them had the faintest, foggiest clue what to do with the ruins of the country after Moammar Qaddafi was ousted. They relied heavily on friendly American media losing interest in the story the instant the White House was finished taking a victory lap. The Benghazi disaster came out of nowhere because our attention had been so completely shifted elsewhere; few Americans realized the country was tottering on the verge of collapse, and Benghazi was a terrorist beehive ready to explode on the anniversary of 9/11.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama did know, or would have, if they paid attention to their security briefings. They ended up spending most of their time covering up what happened, deflecting questions about why they were so completely unprepared for it, and peddling a 100 percent false narrative about a “spontaneous video protest,” which we now know Clinton got from the operative she was keeping fed and watered at her fake charity foundation, Sid Blumenthal.
The terrorists and warlords infesting Libya did not, of course, give a hoot about Clinton and Obama’s spin.
They continued on their merry way, creating a war-torn wasteland ripe for an ISIS invasion, after Obama’s negligence allowed the group he once carelessly dismissed as a non-factor to metastasize into a trans-border “caliphate” currently making hash of Obama’s strategies in Syria and Iraq. They are big in Libya, too, and history will record it as one of the most amazing failures of biased media that only a few alternative outlets have made a big deal about it, until now.

Now it is getting hard to ignore. The Huffington Post notesthat ISIS has taken control of Qaddafi’s hometown of Sirte and has begun expanding its influence from that base of operations, striking airports, power plants, and oilfields. Those oil attacks have done immense damage to Libya’s already fragile economy, with production down to less than a third of its Qaddafi-era levels.  Control of the Sirte airport is allowing ISIS to build a supply line from its strongholds in Syria and Iraq to Libya.

The HuffPo in turn quotes Riccardo Fabiani, senior North Africa analyst at the Eurasia Group, telling Bloomberg News it has become clear ISIS is “getting more structure and their control of this region is getting more serious,” with a real danger they can “overrun” and severely damage the strategically vital city of Ras Lanuf, Libya’s third-largest export terminal.

What is truly alarming about the state of play in Libya is that ISIS views it as such a growth opportunity that they are diverting fighters away from Syria and into Libya. They have been telling allied militant groups in Libya to keep their fighters on home turf to assist in operations there. That says something awful about ISIS’s view of the strategic situation in Syria, too, doesn’t it?
As in Syria, some of the forces battling ISIS are themselves noxious Islamist gangs, including our old chums in al-Qaeda, who are suddenly the lesser of two evils. As the usual beheadings and other mayhem mount in ISIS’s wake, the al-Qaeda types are pronouncing themselves disgusted with the Islamic State’s depredations and declaring war on it.

But do not get your hopes up for an inter-villain cage match to erase darkness from Libya and leave something that can develop into a functional nation-state. ISIS is not the only group hoping to profit from chaos in Libya, which Alfred describes as “hurtling towards disaster.” Actually, it sounds like it has hurtled past disaster and is bearing down on Armageddon.

“Earlier this week, politicians rejected the latest peace proposal from the United Nations,” she writes. “Officials warn Libya is nearing bankruptcy as the fighting has shut down the country’s oil and gas industry.” Militants are rejecting those peace proposals, because they’re not interested in making peace with each other, and ISIS is more than happy to move into the bloody vacuum of stability.
And they are not stopping with Libya. Intelligence sources told Fox News that ISIS is using Libya “as an ‘entry point’ into Europe,” with at least thirty ISIS fighters intercepted by Italian authorities in recent weeks, mixed into the ungodly tidal wave of refugees pouring across the Mediterranean.
“There is no way you can block it,” an intel source told Fox News. “Libya is now an easy entry point into the E.U. and ultimately into the U.S. for ISIS.
They are saying, this is the way to America.”
Oil and drug money are flowing from Libya into the ISIS war machine, the latter income stream generated by the huge drug problem Libya has developed, including the sale of South American heroin. Apparently there are so many ISIS terrorists swarming through Libya that even the hapless Libyan central government has been able to capture a few of them.

“This administration continues to deny reality and fails to adequately convey to the American people the severity of the security situation throughout the Middle East and the resulting threats America faces,” Fox quotes Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee chair Sen. Ron Johnson fuming.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton made this. Neither of them has a clue how to stop it. Their primary interest is making sure Americans don’t think about it, at least not until the next election is past.
END

Friday 5 June 2015

LIBYA PAST AND PRESENT June 2015

 Libya has fallen victim to poor planning and wooly thinking. But a document from the country's past could save its future.
As I said several times, it was clear, even in 2011, that without something to unite Libyans that resonates with them and that they understand, the fissures within Libyan society would result in extreme factionalism that would tear Libya apart posing grave risks for Libyans, for Libya’s neighbours and for international security.
But the euphoria of the Arab spring had gripped Libyans and non-Libyans alike and even though over a 42 year period, and on so many levels, Libya had suffered an extreme hollowing out of the state and civil society, almost everyone thought these views were out of touch with reality and out of step with the new political paradigm. In fact, I remember several dismissive comments from senior diplomats, politicians and civil servants at the time.  For example:
“Tribalism is a rural phenomenon and not applicable to what is now predominantly an urban population”.
“There is no sectarian divide in Libya and so unity will be easy to maintain”.
“There will be no arms proliferation because a national army and police force are almost universally supported and already beginning to take shape”.
“We have proven beyond doubt that if you provide the context and means for free and fair elections, the rest will then follow naturally”.
These beliefs were very typical and almost universally held.
But after three and a half years the early optimism has become almost entirely extinguished.
I take no satisfaction in having been proven right. There are no rewards for being right in this context. The Libyan people are suffering untold miseries. The international community is struggling to define a coherent policy with the risks and costs of a failing or failed state only too apparent.
With the benefit of hindsight, the common assessment is either that failure was a result of not having “planned for the day after intervention” – which incidentally is the common conclusion with regards to other interventions such as Afghanistan and Iraq.
Or else, the assessment is that intervention fails because intervention just does not work.
The objective here is not to have a philosophical debate about the merits of intervention. Whatever the case for and against, in an increasingly multipolar world, intervention is probably here to stay and that includes military intervention. In fact, in Libya, in spite of the public announcements of some countries who stand against further military intervention, at least until a unity government is formed, other countries continue to intervene militarily as we speak as a recent UN report has detailed.
So, let me turn to the first question, is the failure in Libya due to not having prepared for the day after intervention?
I believe that the majority of ordinary Libyans today would agree that it is due to this – but not in the way it might be assumed.
The popular view outside Libya is to point to shortcomings in the preparations for a national police force, a national army and the like.
But increasingly, Libyans are coming round to the idea that far too few people prepared for the even more fundamental political issues a hollowed out state would face when its central tyrannical authority of 42 years suddenly ended - as it was bound to do sooner or later. Specifically:
  • What would provide the basis for unity in a tribal country which for historic reasons is especially prone to its own particular form of factionalism and division?
  • What would be the basis of political legitimacy, authority and  trust going forward? Would it work and be sustainable?
  • How best could stability be restored to allow sufficient time and space for the necessary state and civil institutions to emerge?
Credible and workable answers to these fundamental and inter-related questions were always going to be the pre-requisites for political success overall and for the successful creation and sustenance of every national institution.
But these questions were either not thought through at all, or else were thought through superficially using an ideological or political lense, that as we can all see today, and as I pointed out to all those I met in 2011, just simply did not fit and never had a realistic chance of succeeding.
In a deeply tribal country, with additional regional, societal and political fissures that are easy to exploit, but a country without a sufficient tradition of representative government and consensus politics, and without any of the key institutions of civil society or state, the reliance on the western democratic tradition and political processes as a one size fits all, was never going to give a credible and workable starting point once the dictator fell.
It is astonishing to me and to many Libyans how even the most experienced and sophisticated of political actors within the international community continue not to appreciate or want to appreciate this, even in the face of almost four years of unequivocal evidence.
We have already had several unity governments since the 2011 revolution, but each time the unity has unraveled.
I am certain there has been plenty of good intention on all sides, this is also undoubtedly the case with the current discussions regarding a new unity government.
But crucially, a unity that is forged around the negotiating table or via any other political process that does not then hold and translate into a sufficiently united country is unfortunately not unity at all. It is just wishful thinking.
Let’s hope that the current process leads to a new unity government that will break the mould…but even if it comes about it is difficult to see how it can avoid the fate of other unity governments that have gone before.
So where does this leave Libya?
What is clear is that the vast majority of Libyans are entirely unhappy with the current state of play. None of the options that the various political processes have produced or are likely to produce seem to them ultimately able to attract enough support from a wide enough base for a long enough period of time to make a difference.
Voter turnout has been very low, with each poll attracting fewer voters than the one before – the last nationwide vote I believe had only 15 to 20 per cent of the electorate voting with the vast majority of Libyans therefore increasingly disengaged with the process and the options on the table.
Furthermore, the political and security vacuum has created space for some fanatical forces on the ground. These dark forces thrive on chaos and know how to use it to their advantage.  Whilst they are a serious issue, they have no basis, foundation or long-term prospect in Libya. They are predominantly foreigners and have little to no popular support since Libya has a longstanding and well-enshrined moderate sufi tradition. They will exist only until unity eludes Libya.
The vacuum has also allowed a number of foreign countries to get involved on one side or other and pursue their own self-interests. This has created a proxy war. An additional and unhelpful layer of division adding fuel to the fire and, in the eyes of the Libyan population, destroying the reputation of those countries involved.

So in Libya today you have many sides and no credible centre…and with no centre Libya spins further out of control. Libyans are further away from their aspirations than at any time since 2011. We may be looking at further lost generations of Libyans as the education system, the health system, the economy and the lives of ordinary Libyans fall apart and unpalatable forces continue to exploit the chaos that is Libya today.

But a growing number of Libyans now believe there may be a way forward.
If you are able to look beneath the surface, there is growing evidence of a grass roots movement in Libya that offers a different track towards a functioning democratic state. In the major cities across Libya, including Tripoli and Benghazi, there have been demonstrations, conferences and debates in favour of the restoration of the 1951 Libyan Constitution. This is mirrored across countless Libyan social media pages. The volume is gradually increasing. It is across all ages, tribes, regions and cities. It is spontaneous. It is truly a grass roots phenomenon entirely independent from the current political actors.

The 1951 Constitution (amended in 1963) was drawn up by the Libyan National Assembly, with assistance from the United Nations. Crucially it provides for a democratic, parliamentary system, with a constitutional monarchy and universal adult suffrage.
The fundamental point is that at a grass roots level it is being increasingly recognised that from where things stand now, there may be no more solid and sensible basis available than the 1951 (amended in 1963) Constitution to be 2015 updated only for political transition in Libya, and neither is any likely to be agreed and then win sufficient national support to be considered legitimate.

There is growing support on the ground for the idea that an orderly transition to a new Libya may be best served by returning to the constitution that founded the Libyan nation and secured its independence. A constitution rooted in Libya’s history. A realistic political starting point that is familiar.  That has intrinsic legitimacy and authority. A constitution that was already the basis of unity once before and that presided over a period now recognized to be the most successful in Libya’s modern history.
A (remote?) possibility is, if the people of Libya succeed in restoring their 1951 (amended in 1963) Constitution to be 2015 updated only for political transition, they would put in place a tolerant, rights-based, democratic system of government, with a constitutional monarchy or Presidency that would be a model for the region.
Indeed, if the people of Libya succeed in restoring their 1951 constitution, they would put in place a tolerant, rights-based, democratic system of government, with a constitutional monarchy that would be a model for the region.

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Wednesday 3 June 2015

TIME FOR EGYPT TO INVADE LIBYA ?

The momentum towards the beginning of an Egypt-led coalition operating in Libya may be gaining steam. The launch of full-blown air sorties and special operations could be expected, in what would be a move to enhance General Khalifa Haftar’s “Operation Dignity.”

In eight months of fighting, Haftar’s forces with their emerging and evolving concept of operations, have bludgeoned their way to superiority.

About two weeks ago, the not so secret meeting of Arab defense ministers and other officials took place in Cairo. Subsequent planning by the participants resulted in further analysis of the fluid nature of the Libyan battlefield. France and Italy are backing Cairo with their usual activity that includes intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).

But Algeria may be sitting out of the Egypt-led coalition. Algiers is worried that if Dignity wins the war, Egypt as its key ally will enjoy key influence in Libya. Consequently, Algeria’s lack of cooperation signals that the Egypt-led coalition’s air operations would be relied upon with support by the Zintanians and critically, the Warfalla tribe, who are now on board with Egypt.

Speaking of Libya tribes, a few days ago, over 420 Libyan tribal leaders reportedly gave their approval for a fresh military offensive. These Libyan tribal leaders met in Cairo sponsored by the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs. The tribal leaders agreed to form a Tribal Council, with members to be named by the Libyan parliament, the House of Representatives (HoR) in Tobruk, which will be tasked with national reconciliation as well as developing Libya's relationship with neighboring countries. It is interesting to note that the assassination attempt on Tobruk’s Prime Minister Abdullah Al Thinni occurred during the tribal meeting in Cairo.

The Libyan tribal leaders, at the conclusion of a conference in Cairo, said they refuse any dialogue with Islamist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), asserting that it is a “terrorist organization.” In other words, the Tripoli government, made up of the MB and former fighters of the al-Qaeda linked group, the Libyan Islamic Fighters Group (LIFG), and is the target in the coming weeks; Tripoli is to be taken away from the extremists. Part of the strategy is to get the Misratans to break away from Tripoli to join the Egypt-led cause. Misrata, of course, is Libya’s third city and biggest port and strategically noteworthy. Significantly, Libyan tribalism always trumps religion and localism.

DAESH (ISIS) expansion

To boot, and making the situation more urgent, is that ISIS in Libya is expanding beyond their port areas of Sirte and Derna. Overall, from the Egyptian-led coalition point of view, there is a great amount of strategic and tactical work to be done. That the first anniversary of ISIS occurs on the first day of Ramadan 2015 cannot be allowed to be a joyous occasion for the Libyan-based appendage of the false caliphate.
Russia and China are reportedly getting involved too in Libya. We all know that the Kremlin is supplying weapons to the Tobruk government via Egypt with various types of kit for land operations, communications, and additional maintenance equipment. Interestingly, Moscow, and China, are upping their naval presence in the Mediterranean. The Russian and Chinese navies (Peoples Liberation Army Navy) recently held their first joint exercise with nine warships, Sea Cooperation-2015, in the Mediterranean Sea.

It is important to recall that PLAN ships have been a part of the maritime security environment in the Mediterranean Sea before NATO operations over Libya in 2011. In that year, the Chinese Navy evacuated 30,000 Chinese workers from Libya. For the current exercise, China dispatched ships that had been involved in an anti-piracy mission off the Horn of Africa. It is quite possible that both Russian and Chinese navies will be participating with an Egyptian-led coalition in one form or another, quietly but saliently. If true, this development challenges nominal thinking about geo-politics and geo-security in North Africa.

The UN and EU dithering is leading up to this decisive moment. A few weeks ago, UN issued a mediated Libyan Political Agreement for consideration by all sides. Tripoli’s Prime Minister Khalifa Al Ghwell said that there is “no chance” at a unity government and that the country is “heading for partition.” In addition, EU foreign and defense ministers met amid fanfare to announce decisive military action to tackle the migrant crisis flowing through Libya towards the soft underbelly of Europe. But EU action will not happen until July. And even then only if the U.N. agrees, which it probably will not. So Arab action must be taken now.
USA appears to be stuck even more in its internal politics than focusing on what is about to unfold in North Africa. Due to the fact that the American presidential election season is starting in the United States, Republicans are coalescing around the Obama Administration’s failed policies towards the Middle East and specifically on former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s record on the killing of Ambassador Christopher Stevens in Benghazi on September 11, 2012. At this time, the Arab states see the internal politics of Washington DC on Libya as a joke and is contributing to the will of an Egyptian-led coalition and General Haftar to time their operations sooner rather than later.
Overall, an Egyptian-led coalition would have notable goals.
But there may be some unintended consequences.
First, the Qaddafi tribe is part of tribal alliance that met in Cairo and it could be that Qaddafi family members will be active in the new Libya.
Second, General Haftar may be forced to act on behalf of the Egyptians rather than to the government in Tobruk. Although some disagreements may occur, the strategic and tactical goals are more important. Clearly, the opening of this new front in Libya by an Egypt-led coalition would continue to illustrate how central Libya’s future is tied to the forces that want a stable and peaceful Libya

Tuesday 2 June 2015

VIA DELLA SETA. IL RAGNO E LA CIVETTA

È la notte fra il 28 e il 29 maggio 1453 e nell’immensa volta della cupola di Santa Sofia riecheggia il Kyrie eleison; il momento è concitato, il Patriarca di Costantinopoli sta officiando al cospetto dell’imperatore Costantino XI quella che sarà l’ultima messa celebrata nella grande basilica giustinianea. Qui ha inizio l’ultimo atto di uno di quei rari eventi in cui la storia ama condensarsi in una sequenza di attimi dal significato assoluto; Stefan Zweig, in un brano dei suoi Momenti fatali, descrisse così la scena:

uno dei momenti di più intensa commozione che l’Europa abbia mai vissuto, un’indimenticabile, estatica apoteosi del tracollo finale. Sono tutte votate alla morte le persone che confluiscono nella Basilica di Santa Sofia”.

La gente si è lì radunata in massa seguendo in corteo l’ostensione di reliquie e icone che per secoli avevano protetto la città. Dopo essersi prostrato davanti all’altare, l’imperatore si reca un’ultima volta al palazzo delle Blacherne per prendere commiato e chiedere perdono a familiari e servitori per ogni offesa arrecata; indossata l’armatura, si dirige quindi a cavallo verso i bastioni che separano la vecchia capitale da un nuovo destino. Dalla parte opposta sull’altura antistante alla Porta di S. Romano (mod. Top Kapisi) campeggia la sagoma vermiglia della tenda di Mehmet II, mentre da diversi giorni una selva di vessilli si infrange come violenti flutti sulle possenti mura teodosiane. Costantinopoli è oramai stretta in una morsa con la flotta turca che blocca l’accesso dal mare e la formidabile artiglieria ottomana che tambureggia senza sosta le difese terrestri. Fra i pezzi più temuti dagli assediati vi è il mastodontico cannone di Urban, appositamente costruito per abbattere le impenetrabili mura di Bisanzio e primo esempio di artiglieria pesante. Proprio le fortificazioni terrestri di Teodosio II sono un’opera di ingegneria militare impareggiabile e ancora nel XIX secolo le rovine dei suoi tre ordini impressionano viaggiatori letterati quali Théophile Gautier, Pierre Loti ed Edmondo de Amicis, stimolando in loro l’immagine del fatale assedio. Per i contemporanei la caduta di Costantinopoli ebbe enorme impatto emotivo segnando la fine di un impero millenario, sebbene esso fosse da tempo ridotto a frammenti sparsi di territorio e alla penisola della capitale. Nonostante l’impotenza, Costantino, con una manciata di uomini d’arme greci e italiani, veneziani e genovesi, ne guida la disperata difesa. La figura dell’imperatore possiede tutti i tratti di un eroe tragico; porta il nome di colui al quale Bisanzio deve le sue fortune, ma è consapevole di essere l’ultimo di una tradizione gloriosa, una lunga catena di autocrati che per più di un millennio erano stati modello di autorità universale. Facendosi carico di una grave responsabilità, Costantino XI va incontro al suo destino salendo sugli spalti e lanciandosi nella mischia nei pressi del Murus Bacchatureus; il suo corpo non fu mai identificato e più tardi fiorirono nella comunità greca della città leggende sul suo mistico ritorno e sul riscatto del suo popolo. Al volgere dell’aurora il sultano comandò l’assalto finale e riversò sugli assediati dapprima la massa dei bashi-bazuk, le truppe irregolari, alla quale seguì l’attacco della fanteria scelta anatolica e infine dei Giannizzeri. Gli assalitori trovarono un’accanita resistenza che li respinse ripetutamente e quando anche l’ultima ondata sembrava aver perso vigore, una piccola postierla sguarnita, la Kerkoporta, fu presa d’assalto determinando l’esito dello scontro. Mehmet II, da allora detto il Conquistatore (Fātiḥ), fece ingresso in città nel pomeriggio dalla monumentale porta di Adrianopoli (Edirne Kapi), divenendo anch’egli personaggio leggendario per il suo popolo. La rielaborazione mitografica coinvolse così entrambe le figure dei contendenti ribadendo nei secoli a venire un conflitto identitario. La battaglia ideologica si riverbera ovviamente nelle fonti coeve e il biografo del Padiscià, Tursun Beg, ci offre una prospettiva opposta alle descrizioni ostili che circolavano nell’Europa cristiana. Rapito dalla superba architettura Mehmet volle esplorare a fondo Santa Sofia salendo sulla cupola da dove poté abbracciare la vista della città saccheggiata. Fu la desolante contemplazione delle grandiose rovine di Costantinopoli che indusse il sultano a riflettere sulla caducità dell’esistenza e della gloria terrena e a recitare un distico dello Shahnameh di Firdusi,

Il ragno tesse la tela nel palazzo di Cosroe,
la civetta suona la guardia fra le torri di Afrāsyāb

Monday 1 June 2015

LIA (Libya Investment Authority)

Hassan Bouhadi, chairman LIA
Hassan Bouhadi was made chairman of the LIA last October 
Hassan Bouhadi, the chairman of Libya’s $77bn national wealth fund, the Libyan Investment Authority, doesn’t want his job to be this interesting.

Ideally, he would be in Libya’s capital Tripoli, quietly stewarding the country’s wealth, smoothing out the public finances of an economy that is 97pc dependent on volatile oil revenues.
Instead, he is sitting in a London hotel, in between missions to Washington and Tunis. After that, he will return to Malta, where the LIA has been forced to move due to the violence in Tripoli.
As well as trying to keep his own struggling government and the international community on side, Mr Bouhadi is facing a leadership challenge from the LIA’s former chair.
And last but not least, he is attempting to drive forward two multi-billion-dollar lawsuits against Goldman Sachs and Société Générale, two of the biggest banks in the world.
If Mr Bouhadi, who last October became the third chairman of the LIA in a matter of months, is finding the job stressful, it doesn’t show.
“After 40 years of dictatorship, we are trying to create a new Libya, where we can see that a democratic process is taking shape,” he says.
“It’s tough, but at the end of the day this is what we’ve been appointed for. It is a very, very challenging time for Libya as a whole, but we’ve decided to do the right thing.”

Libya has struggled for stability since Muammar Gaddafi was ousted in 2011 (AP)
It wasn’t supposed to be so difficult. When the LIA was set up, in 2006, the country had recently been brought in from the international wilderness. Sanctions were lifted, allowing the country to diversify away from oil money, and bankers rushed in, looking for a piece of the action.
However, things started to go sour quickly. LIA officials invested billions in derivative trades that went awry in 2008, when the financial crisis shocked markets. Many individuals viewed the fund as a conduit to personal gain. And then, in 2011, revolution flared up.
Although Muammar Gaddafi was swiftly removed, much of the country was damaged. Weapons became an everyday sight, and the presence of militias has held back democracy since.
Now, the country is divided between Islamists based in Tripoli in the west and the internationally-recognised government, which has been forced to leave the capital for the port of Tobruk in the far east. Parts of the country are occupied by Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or Isil, which has exported its terrorism to the Mediterranean’s shores.

In a way, it is a tribute to the determination of those at the LIA that the institution has carried on, albeit with something of a revolving door at its helm (several individuals have been ousted for links to the old regime, among other reasons).
Mr Bouhadi says the institution has done its utmost to remain non-partisan, which may explain its stability. “We are actually one of the few institutions in Libya where we still maintain one board and a governance structure that is Libyan, that is non-partisan, that looks at the Libyan institutions rather than Tripoli, Tobruk and so forth,” he says.
Mr Bouhadi, a graduate of University College London and Imperial College, is an engineer by trade. Before joining the LIA, he worked for American infrastructure giants GE and Bechtel. He says, though, that like many of his compatriots, he felt compelled to help rebuild Libya after the revolution.
“During [the Gaddafi era] we all longed to work in Libya, and unfortunately the political set-up at the time made it hard. It was limiting how much you could do under that atmosphere,” he says.
“There are a lot of Libyans like me who were privileged to have a western education, who worked in a governance structure, that knew about compliance and transparency, and we wanted to bring that. I saw myself living in comfort in Dubai, while my friends and family were in Libya, so for me it just did not match with our aspiration. So I took a decision to take my responsibility and try to make a change. We couldn’t wait for Libya to be handed to us on a golden plate.”

The country has been marred by infighting in recent months (AFP)
In the midst of the nation’s turmoil, the LIA has managed to lodge, and maintain, two enormous legal cases in London against Goldman and SocGen.
The cases, worth $1.2bn and $2.3bn respectively, have become something of a corporate thriller, involving allegations of exotic bribes, senior Goldman executives, and even Sophie Wellesley – the wife of singer James Blunt – who worked for the LIA before the uprising, as a witness.
The LIA accuses Goldman of pocketing huge advisory fees while hoodwinking officials into investing $1.2bn in complex derivative transactions in 2008, which became practically worthless when the crisis struck. SocGen, meanwhile, is alleged to have funnelled huge bribes to individuals, including people close to the Gaddafis, in order to push through trades that also went sour.
Both banks reject the allegations. Goldman has argued that the LIA officials were sophisticated, well-trained professionals, who could not possibly, as the fund contends, be unaware that they were getting into risky transactions. Mr Bouhadi, though, says no sovereign wealth fund would willingly get involved in them.

“Sovereign funds are very conservative – we go to the extent whereby we do investments just to beat inflation, that’s how conservative we are,” he says. “It would be ridiculous for such institutions to take such a large amount of money and end up with zero, when it’s something that belongs to the future generations of Libya.
“We’re very determined that someone is held accountable. For the wealth of the nation to be squandered and for the $1.2bn to end up as zero, I think someone has to answer.”
Mr Bouhadi is determined to win the case, but events have not gone as smoothly as he might have hoped. In March, despite a concerted effort from the LIA, the fund’s law firm, Enyo, walked away, after apparent frustrations in dealing with certain members of the fund.
Mr Bouhadi’s team, attempting to protect proceedings, appointed a new firm, Keystone Law, but its attempts to continue the cases were dealt a blow last month, when Abdulrahman Benyezza, LIA chairman before Mr Bouhadi, tried to seize power by appointing his own lawyers and claiming authority over the case.
Mr Benyezza has now relinquished his claim to lead the LIA in favour of Abdulmagid Breish, his predecessor as chair, but Mr Bouhadi’s team will still have to see off the legal challenge.
Mr Breish, who claims to have been reinstated as head of the LIA by Libya's Court of Appeal, said:"I am aware that, during my absence, other persons attempted to take control of the LIA, serving to challenge the independence and neutrality of the organisation.
"There are rogue directors who set up offices without permission. They use money that I assume they obtained illegally and we will be taking legal action against them."

Goldman Sachs is being sued by the LIA in London (Reuters)
Mr Bouhadi says the intervention is “unfortunate”, but dismisses Mr Breish’s claim as a Libyan anachronism, a hangover from the old regime when institutions were defined by individuals rather than their democratic mandate.
“Some individuals have the idea that they need to be in power no matter what,” he says, rejecting claims that the lawsuits are in a “state of chaos”, as a recent court hearing heard.
For all the efforts that have been made to keep the LIA stable, however, the country’s 6m people are unlikely to see any of the proceeds until there is a stable government, and a semblance of peace.
Almost a third of the fund’s $77bn of assets are international investments in bonds, equities and so forth, which are frozen at Libya’s behest, and will remain so until a political solution is agreed.
In the meantime, Mr Bouhadi says his job is to “protect and maintain” the wealth, and that the LIA is able to plan only a week or two in advance.
Should stability result, billions are expected to be invested in infrastructure and education, creating a private sector that simply did not exist under Gaddafi.
Until that happens, he certainly has plenty of work to do.