The liberation of our compatriots in Libya, beyond the necessary considerations about the level of safety of workers operating in the country, it also reminds us that many Italian companies, especially in the construction industry and energy, have never stops, managing struggled to keep open a road that many foreign companies have long since ceased to go.
It will be the economy to lead the recovery of relations between Italy and Libya? Despite attempts to boycott the special economic relationship between the two countries - one among all the intervention wanted by France in 2011 to enlarge the oil slice across the Alps and put an end to the "annoying" treaty of friendship and cooperation between Italy and Libya - the 'Italy has managed to maintain a close link with Libya. Last October Mahamoud Ali Hassan, chairman of the Libyan Investment Autorithy (Lia), the Libyan treasure from 67 billion dollars still frozen in London, wanted to meet the leaders of Eni, Finmeccanica-Leonardo, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Snam and Unicredit. The aim was to explain the opportunities the Libyan reconstruction and the possibility of a presence of Lia in the various boards of directors, through the investment of about 8 billion of internal funds. It is very small compared to a possible release of Lia and this uncertainty is difficult to predict the Hassan held, but the signal appears clear, however: Italy remains a privileged interlocutor for the Libyan economy.
If the outlook may appear attractive, but the reality is quite another thing. The Libyan economy is in pieces. According to recent World Bank data, the inflation rate grew by 25% in the first half of 2016. The prices of flour and bread increased fivefold. Per capita income has fallen to less than $ 5 thousand, compared to almost $ 13 thousand in 2012. The country is facing a persistent liquidity crisis. The salaries of many civil servants (the vast majority of the country's workforce) are blocked, as well as those of some militias, a few weeks ago, in protest, had occupied the headquarters of the Presidential Council of Tripoli was out coup.
On the whole, then, it weighs the collapse of oil production alone was worth all the Libyan economy during Gaddafi's reign. What remains of the revenue of the past, now reduced to less than a fifth, it is poorly managed by the Libyan Central Bank which hinders the delivery of the funds obtained from the sale of crude oil, getting by with difficulty between the "factions" in Tripoli and Tobruk. To ward off the inevitability of the Libyan default on 31 October, the Foreign Office in London has called a meeting of the countries that support the National Accord Government, but the result was little more than nothing done.
It will be the economy to lead the recovery of relations between Italy and Libya? Despite attempts to boycott the special economic relationship between the two countries - one among all the intervention wanted by France in 2011 to enlarge the oil slice across the Alps and put an end to the "annoying" treaty of friendship and cooperation between Italy and Libya - the 'Italy has managed to maintain a close link with Libya. Last October Mahamoud Ali Hassan, chairman of the Libyan Investment Autorithy (Lia), the Libyan treasure from 67 billion dollars still frozen in London, wanted to meet the leaders of Eni, Finmeccanica-Leonardo, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Snam and Unicredit. The aim was to explain the opportunities the Libyan reconstruction and the possibility of a presence of Lia in the various boards of directors, through the investment of about 8 billion of internal funds. It is very small compared to a possible release of Lia and this uncertainty is difficult to predict the Hassan held, but the signal appears clear, however: Italy remains a privileged interlocutor for the Libyan economy.
If the outlook may appear attractive, but the reality is quite another thing. The Libyan economy is in pieces. According to recent World Bank data, the inflation rate grew by 25% in the first half of 2016. The prices of flour and bread increased fivefold. Per capita income has fallen to less than $ 5 thousand, compared to almost $ 13 thousand in 2012. The country is facing a persistent liquidity crisis. The salaries of many civil servants (the vast majority of the country's workforce) are blocked, as well as those of some militias, a few weeks ago, in protest, had occupied the headquarters of the Presidential Council of Tripoli was out coup.
On the whole, then, it weighs the collapse of oil production alone was worth all the Libyan economy during Gaddafi's reign. What remains of the revenue of the past, now reduced to less than a fifth, it is poorly managed by the Libyan Central Bank which hinders the delivery of the funds obtained from the sale of crude oil, getting by with difficulty between the "factions" in Tripoli and Tobruk. To ward off the inevitability of the Libyan default on 31 October, the Foreign Office in London has called a meeting of the countries that support the National Accord Government, but the result was little more than nothing done.
This should not be surprising given that in reality no one seems to have yet figured out who the other party to talk to Libya. The UN's premier Serraj even weaker and weaker in the capital, or "not recognized" General Haftar who, however, has won the wells of the oil crescent and de facto controls them?
From this point of view if you really want to grasp the opportunities of the Libyan reconstruction, you will have to bear with much more conviction the country's recovery. Beyond the support for the recovery of oil production will be necessary in the short term, increase the circulation of money, under the control of the central bank, maybe thawing, after close supervision, some of Libyan assets abroad. But nothing can be done without a preliminary political reconstruction of the country which must necessarily pass through an inclusive dialogue and effective cooperation between the actors of the local context. How to do it will not be just a problem of the Libyans but also for all external actors who, more or less knowingly, have helped to exacerbate or cause chaos in the country.
From this point of view if you really want to grasp the opportunities of the Libyan reconstruction, you will have to bear with much more conviction the country's recovery. Beyond the support for the recovery of oil production will be necessary in the short term, increase the circulation of money, under the control of the central bank, maybe thawing, after close supervision, some of Libyan assets abroad. But nothing can be done without a preliminary political reconstruction of the country which must necessarily pass through an inclusive dialogue and effective cooperation between the actors of the local context. How to do it will not be just a problem of the Libyans but also for all external actors who, more or less knowingly, have helped to exacerbate or cause chaos in the country.
La liberazione dei nostri connazionali in Libia, al di là delle necessarie considerazioni sul livello di sicurezza dei lavoratori che operano nel paese, ci ricorda anche che molte aziende italiane, specie del comparto delle costruzioni e dell'energia, non si sono mai fermate, riuscendo a tenere faticosamente aperta una strada che molte imprese straniere hanno smesso da tempo di percorrere.
Potrà essere l'economia a guidare la ripresa dei rapporti tra Italia e Libia? Nonostante i tentativi di boicottare la special relationship economica tra i due paesi — uno tra tutti l'intervento voluto dalla Francia nel 2011 per allargare la fetta petrolifera d'oltralpe e porre fine al "fastidioso" trattato di amicizia e cooperazione italo-libico — l'Italia è riuscita a mantenere un legame preferenziale con la Libia. Lo scorso ottobre Ali Mahamoud Hassan, chairman del Libyan Investment Autorithy (Lia), il tesoretto libico da 67 miliardi di dollari ancora congelato a Londra, ha voluto incontrare i vertici di Eni, Leonardo-Finmeccanica, Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Snam e Unicredit. L'obiettivo era quello di illustrare le opportunità della ricostruzione libica e valutare la possibilità di una presenza della Lia nei vari consigli di amministrazione, grazie all'investimento di circa 8 miliardi di fondi interni. Si tratta di ben poca cosa rispetto a un possibile sblocco della Lia e in questa situazione di incertezza è difficile prevedere la tenuta di Hassan, ma il segnale appare comunque chiaro: l'Italia resta un interlocutore privilegiato per il mondo economico libico.
Se le prospettive possono apparire interessanti, la realtà è però ben altra cosa. L'economia libica è in pezzi. Secondo dati recenti della Banca mondiale il tasso di inflazione è cresciuto del 25% nel primo semestre del 2016. I prezzi di farina e pane sono quintuplicati. Il reddito pro capite è sceso a meno di 5mila dollari, rispetto ai quasi 13mila dollari del 2012. Il paese versa in una persistente crisi di liquidità. Gli stipendi dei tanti dipendenti pubblici (la stragrande maggioranza della forza lavoro del paese) sono bloccati, così come quelli di alcune milizie che, qualche settimana fa, in segno di protesta, avevano occupato la sede del Consiglio presidenziale di Tripoli facendo gridare al golpe.
Su tutto, poi, pesa il crollo della produzione di petrolio che da solo valeva tutta l'economia libica durante il regno di Gheddafi. Quello che resta degli introiti di un tempo, oggi ridotti a meno di un quinto, è mal gestito dalla Banca centrale libica che ostacola la consegna dei fondi ottenuti dalla vendita del greggio, barcamenandosi a fatica tra le "fazioni" di Tripoli e Tobruk. Per scongiurare l'ineluttabilità del default libico lo scorso 31 ottobre il Foreign Office di Londra ha convocato un incontro tra i paesi che sostengono il Governo di Accordo Nazionale, ma il risultato è stato poco più di un niente di fatto.
Ciò non dovrebbe stupire visto che in realtà nessuno sembra aver ancora capito chi sia l'interlocutore con cui parlare in Libia. Il premier dell'Onu Serraj, sempre più debole anche nella capitale, o il "non riconosciuto" generale Haftar che, però, ha conquistato i pozzi della mezzaluna petrolifera e de facto li controlla?
Da questo punto di vista se davvero si vorranno cogliere le opportunità della ricostruzione libica, si dovrà sostenere con molta più convinzione la ripresa del paese. Al di là del supporto alla ripresa della produzione petrolifera sarà necessario, nel breve periodo, aumentare la circolazione di denaro, sotto il controllo della Banca centrale, magari scongelando, previa una stretta supervisione, alcuni dei beni libici all'estero. Nulla però potrà essere fatto senza una preliminare ricostruzione politica del paese che dovrà necessariamente passare attraverso un dialogo inclusivo ed una cooperazione efficace tra gli attori del contesto locale. Come farlo non sarà solo un problema dei libici ma anche di tutti gli attori esterni che, più o meno scientemente, hanno contribuito a causare o ad acuire il caos nel paese.
