Italy is the only major European country not to have suffered attacks in
the last 15 years: nothing to do with a disorganized jihadism and the
effectiveness of our counter-terrorismTerrorism as a child 10 years threats in video Ahmed Taskour, the alleged foreign fighter Moroccan investigated in Milan for international terrorism
On the morning of 19 December 2016, the Court of Assise in Milan has sentenced to 9 years in jail Maria Giulia Sergio, an Italian woman also known as Fatima, for going to fight jihad in Syria along with the Islamic State (ISIS or ): it was the first conviction of an Italian court against a so-called "foreign fighter", a person went to fight abroad with terrorist groups. Several hours later in Berlin he was made the first major attack of the Islamic State in Germany: a truck hit the crowd at a Christmas market in the city center, killing 12 people and wounding more than 40.
The two episodes did talk again of the danger of terrorism in Italy, a theme that is often treated by politicians and the press only in an instrumental respect to other issues, such as immigration.After the recent bombings in Paris, Brussels, Nice and now Berlin - and earlier ones in Madrid and London, among others - many wonder how it is that in the past 15 years, Italy has remained outside the objectives of terrorist groups Islamists.
This does not mean that there will not be, of course: experts say that for years has questioned the "when" and "where", not "if", but when it will happen remains true that Italy will be by long the last major Western European country to be hit. Yet in the late nineties and early twenty-first century Italy was one of the most important European countries for international terrorism: in Milan there was the Islamic Institute of Viale Jenner, one of the most important logistical support for volunteers from all over the world who wanted to go and fight the jihad in Bosnia (the Institute was established by the US Treasury department, "the main base of al Qaeda in Europe").
Also in Milan, there was a group that was recruiting mujahideen to fight in Iraqi Kurdistan, where he was also an active group linked to al-Qaida; and other northern Italian cities had been put up qaidisti centers that were part of a network that also included other European cities and producing false documents. Then, in the first half of the twenty-first century, the international difficulties of al Qaeda and effective Italian anti-terrorism operations led to the dismantling of the main recruitment networks and financing jihad, leaving room for something different. This "something" has so far not been able to plan attacks or to put in a solid standing and extensive terrorist networks throughout the country, despite the threats against Italy made among others by the Islamic State. How did it happen?Muslim Islamic Institute in front of Viale Jenner in Milan Let's start from the beginning: the Islamic State but was not losing?After the attacks of the last year and a half, the terrorist threat in Europe was primarily associated with the Islamic State (even if, for example, the attack on the drafting of Charlie Hebdo in Paris was made by two men linked to al Qaeda). Several were so amazed of the Islamic state's ability to do even attacks in Europe given the continuing military defeats suffered by the group in Iraq, Syria and Libya.
This premise is useful to understand what type of terrorism we are talking about and what should worry even Italy. The attacks claimed by the Islamic State have not all been planned and directed by the group's top: Some yes, as the Paris attacks of November 2015; others do not, such as those made by the so-called "lone wolves", ie people who are radicalized with propaganda material circulated on the Internet and that they have acted autonomously, simply inspired by jihadist ideology of the Islamic State, particularly aggressive in respect of ' West. So far, the Italian intelligence was considered most likely in Italy the attacks of "lone wolves", those in the second category, although it can not be excluded altogether more organized attacks.It is an important distinction but not so sharp, as often thought (and some people think that basically does not count even that great). Since the Islamic State began to lose territories in the Middle East and North Africa, its leaders have issued several appeals to supporters urging them to make direct attacks in their countries, without necessarily going to fight in the Caliphate. The "lone wolves" improvised, so to speak, there were also the "foreign fighters": the lost
Who today are the jihadists in Italy. Last annual report presented to Parliament Italian intelligence (PDF), which refers to 2015, it is said that the greatest danger to Italy come from the so-called "homegrown" jihadism, pursued mainly by the second generation of immigrant Muslims. It is a jihadist linked to communication on the Internet, which usually develops away from the mosques. The first case of terrorist "homegrown" in Italy is considered to Mohammed Game, Libyan citizen born in Benghazi and arrived in Italy in 2003. The October 12, 2009 Game tried to blow himself up at the gate of the barracks of Santa Barbara, on the outskirts of Milan : he was only wounded, along with two soldiers. On his computer, police found 185 files on the writings of Abu Musab al-Suri, one of the leading ideologues of global jihad, best known for having developed the leaderless resistance concept (at Suri is very well taken up in the ideology of the Islamic State) .The case of Game is interesting to also understand the jihadists arrived after him: for example Barbara Aisha Farina, Italian woman born in Milan who converted to Islam and began to handle various blogs that spread jihadist propaganda; Jarmoune Mohamed, a Moroccan resident in Valcamonica arrested on suspicion of organizing an attack on the synagogue in Milan; and Anas el Abboubi, a young man of Moroccan origin residing in a small town in the valleys north of Brescia, who before radicalized on the Internet was a rapper rather well known by the name of McKhalif (or Dr. Domino).
On the morning of 19 December 2016, the Court of Assise in Milan has sentenced to 9 years in jail Maria Giulia Sergio, an Italian woman also known as Fatima, for going to fight jihad in Syria along with the Islamic State (ISIS or ): it was the first conviction of an Italian court against a so-called "foreign fighter", a person went to fight abroad with terrorist groups. Several hours later in Berlin he was made the first major attack of the Islamic State in Germany: a truck hit the crowd at a Christmas market in the city center, killing 12 people and wounding more than 40.
The two episodes did talk again of the danger of terrorism in Italy, a theme that is often treated by politicians and the press only in an instrumental respect to other issues, such as immigration.After the recent bombings in Paris, Brussels, Nice and now Berlin - and earlier ones in Madrid and London, among others - many wonder how it is that in the past 15 years, Italy has remained outside the objectives of terrorist groups Islamists.
This does not mean that there will not be, of course: experts say that for years has questioned the "when" and "where", not "if", but when it will happen remains true that Italy will be by long the last major Western European country to be hit. Yet in the late nineties and early twenty-first century Italy was one of the most important European countries for international terrorism: in Milan there was the Islamic Institute of Viale Jenner, one of the most important logistical support for volunteers from all over the world who wanted to go and fight the jihad in Bosnia (the Institute was established by the US Treasury department, "the main base of al Qaeda in Europe").
Also in Milan, there was a group that was recruiting mujahideen to fight in Iraqi Kurdistan, where he was also an active group linked to al-Qaida; and other northern Italian cities had been put up qaidisti centers that were part of a network that also included other European cities and producing false documents. Then, in the first half of the twenty-first century, the international difficulties of al Qaeda and effective Italian anti-terrorism operations led to the dismantling of the main recruitment networks and financing jihad, leaving room for something different. This "something" has so far not been able to plan attacks or to put in a solid standing and extensive terrorist networks throughout the country, despite the threats against Italy made among others by the Islamic State. How did it happen?Muslim Islamic Institute in front of Viale Jenner in Milan Let's start from the beginning: the Islamic State but was not losing?After the attacks of the last year and a half, the terrorist threat in Europe was primarily associated with the Islamic State (even if, for example, the attack on the drafting of Charlie Hebdo in Paris was made by two men linked to al Qaeda). Several were so amazed of the Islamic state's ability to do even attacks in Europe given the continuing military defeats suffered by the group in Iraq, Syria and Libya.
This premise is useful to understand what type of terrorism we are talking about and what should worry even Italy. The attacks claimed by the Islamic State have not all been planned and directed by the group's top: Some yes, as the Paris attacks of November 2015; others do not, such as those made by the so-called "lone wolves", ie people who are radicalized with propaganda material circulated on the Internet and that they have acted autonomously, simply inspired by jihadist ideology of the Islamic State, particularly aggressive in respect of ' West. So far, the Italian intelligence was considered most likely in Italy the attacks of "lone wolves", those in the second category, although it can not be excluded altogether more organized attacks.It is an important distinction but not so sharp, as often thought (and some people think that basically does not count even that great). Since the Islamic State began to lose territories in the Middle East and North Africa, its leaders have issued several appeals to supporters urging them to make direct attacks in their countries, without necessarily going to fight in the Caliphate. The "lone wolves" improvised, so to speak, there were also the "foreign fighters": the lost
there were also the "foreign fighters": people go home after receiving military training in Syria, Iraq or Libya. For
this, as written by Thomas Hegghammer, an expert on jihadism and
scholar at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment in Kjeller
(Norway), we should not think that the jihadist activity in Europe is
declining: in the coming years could further increase for several
reasons, including where the persistence of wars in the Muslim world and the ease in spreading propaganda over the Internet. If
in Italy jihadism organized, structured and what top-down structure,
struggling to regain momentum after the great anti-terrorist operations
of the twenty-first century, and if the return of the "foreign fighters"
has not yet become a large problem, you can not say the same
for jihadism so-called "homegrown", to disconnect from the big
international terrorist networks and mosques, and based primarily on
communications on the Internet.
sulle comunicazioni su internet.
Who today are the jihadists in Italy. Last annual report presented to Parliament Italian intelligence (PDF), which refers to 2015, it is said that the greatest danger to Italy come from the so-called "homegrown" jihadism, pursued mainly by the second generation of immigrant Muslims. It is a jihadist linked to communication on the Internet, which usually develops away from the mosques. The first case of terrorist "homegrown" in Italy is considered to Mohammed Game, Libyan citizen born in Benghazi and arrived in Italy in 2003. The October 12, 2009 Game tried to blow himself up at the gate of the barracks of Santa Barbara, on the outskirts of Milan : he was only wounded, along with two soldiers. On his computer, police found 185 files on the writings of Abu Musab al-Suri, one of the leading ideologues of global jihad, best known for having developed the leaderless resistance concept (at Suri is very well taken up in the ideology of the Islamic State) .The case of Game is interesting to also understand the jihadists arrived after him: for example Barbara Aisha Farina, Italian woman born in Milan who converted to Islam and began to handle various blogs that spread jihadist propaganda; Jarmoune Mohamed, a Moroccan resident in Valcamonica arrested on suspicion of organizing an attack on the synagogue in Milan; and Anas el Abboubi, a young man of Moroccan origin residing in a small town in the valleys north of Brescia, who before radicalized on the Internet was a rapper rather well known by the name of McKhalif (or Dr. Domino).
Lorenzo Vidino, of jihadism expert in Italy and among other things
ISPI researcher, wrote that in Italy there are dynamics that replicate
those seen in other countries, even if in small:
"An informal stage, estimated at several hundred units, which, with varying levels of intensity, adopt the jihadist ideology. It is, in essence, a small group of subjects from the sociological characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity, education, social status) extremely heterogeneous but which shares the jihadist faith. [...] Most of these subjects was not involved in any violent action, but rather limits its militancy in often frantic activity on the Internet, aimed to disseminate material that ranges from the purely theological all'operativo. "In Italy it works well against terrorism?Typically the Italian anti-terrorism work is considered very good, probably for the particular history of Italy and the many years of experience in combating domestic terrorism, the right and left, and mafia organizations, such as the Camorra.
In addition, the former Interior Minister Angelino Alfano, now foreign minister, he used a lot of the expulsions instrument that is considered effective in the short term but in the long does not solve the problem. The journalist Giulia Paravicini wrote on Politico that from 2004 to 2014 the Italian government had expelled for reasons of national security an average of 14 people a year; in the last two years the number of expulsions has risen to 123, most of them aimed at Moroccans and Tunisians. Alfano told Paravicini, "We have extended the personal preventive measures that we apply to the Mafia suspects to our anti-terrorism laws. The key words here are "suspect" and "preventive measures", because what happens is not the result of a process and a condemnation, but something that precedes them. "In Italy the crime of terrorism is regulated by Article 270 of the Penal Code, which has been changed a lot over the past 15 years. The most recent changes were two. In February 2015 a law wanted by Alfano which among other things introduced the crime of "organization of transfers for the purposes of terrorism", which provides for 3 to 6 years in prison for "foreign fighters" were approved (one of crimes for which she was sentenced Maria Giulia Sergio) and those who organize, finance or makes propaganda for the jihad. The decree Alfano also predicted up to 10 years in prison for "lone wolves" and established an intelligence strengthening, encouraging such undercover operations.The second amendment to Article 270 of the Criminal Code was approved a few months ago, in July 2016, to give an opportunity to the authorities to punish even those who support and finance potential "lone wolves." Parliament is considering the introduction of other measures, but the times are often very long. For example, in early August, the Senate Judiciary Committee has approved the use of so-called "Trojan horse" in anti-terrorism investigations. The "Trojan horse" is software that can steal sensitive information or access to private computer systems without the user noticing it: the measure, that could make life easier for the investigation of online radicalization cases, however, must still complete in the parliamentary process.Things I do not even workThe fact that Italy has not yet suffered major terrorist attacks of Islamist-inspired does not mean that things work perfectly, or that there is nothing you can do better. Today improvable things seem to be mainly three (PDF). The first, wrote Bruno Megale, former head of counter-terrorism section of the Digos and now superintendent of Caltanissetta, is the lack of North African origin investigators, Balkan and Middle Eastern, lack that instead is not found in many other European countries. According Megale would be important to have investigators who know the places from which the majority of jihadists operating in Italy, in order to better understand their motives and their behaviors.The second problem, wrote Leonardo Lesti, deputy prosecutor at the court in Milan, is the difficulty of interpreting certain rules on terrorism: for example, when you can talk about self-training of a potential jihadist, a crime punishable by law today? How many times you have to watch a video of propaganda of the Islamic State so that we can actually talk about self-training? It is a problem that has been facing the law, but often without the knowledge and the tools to decide competently.The third problem, wrote Lorenzo Vidino, as the almost total lack of policies to prevent radicalization and those for de-radicalization of people who have already been indoctrinated (centers that promote inter-religious dialogue, for example, or structures with specialized staff that helps indoctrinated people to return to a "normal" life). As for prevention, one of the most discussed topics in Europe in recent years has been the management of prisoners considered to be at risk of radicalization: many of the radical Islamists who have been involved in attacks in Europe have been radicalized in prison, for example after entering in contacts with individuals convicted of terrorism (for the time being the main suspect of the attack in Berlin had spent four years in prison in Italy: the connection between the two is a question to be taken lightly, but it could also prove to be relevant) . In other European countries, these policies have existed for fifteen years, and the European Union itself has encouraged the spread, financing of state agencies programs and organizations. In Italy it is still on the high seas, even if something is moving.
In September 2014, former Interior Minister Angelino Alfano had spoken in Parliament the opportunity to initiate specific de-radicalization programs, and parliamentarians Andrea Manciulli (PD) and Stefano Dambruoso (Civic Choice) had submitted a bill on the subject ( PDF), which, however, is blocked by red tape notes of Italian Parliament.
This type of programs and structures could become even more necessary in a few years when it will spread a wider second-generation immigrant Muslims and Italy may face the same problems that are going through today, countries like France, Belgium and Germany.
TRUMP AND LIBYA
Among many of Obama's legacy, the new US administration will have to deal with the Libyan issue. The unorthodox appointment of Donald Trump in the key posts of foreign and defense administration is not clear if there will be, and what will be the guideline.If we would have expected a talk and substantial continuity over Libya as part of a possible Clinton administration (Hillary was just one of the major supporters of the intervention of 2011 in an Obama administration reluctant), any assumptions about policy Trump now seems a speculation. If we were to entrust us with the words spoken during the election campaign would clarify things do not. When the then Republican candidate publicly asked the Russians to hack emails on Libya Clinton, Libya was only an instrumental background of his livid election campaign. Trump repeatedly insisted that it was contrary to the interventions in Iraq and Libya, Hillary denied this but promptly recalling that actually supported the action against the Gaddafi regime. No possibility of new policy towards the crisis was outlined. For more than three months since last August the US was engaged in Operation Odyssey Lightening with the aim of striking the militiamen of the Islamic State in Sirte, a military campaign passed under track and that favored the pro-government forces of national unity Fayez Serraj.Although the defeat of ISIS appear as positive news in the Libyan scenario, the country does not seem to get out again by the ongoing crisis. The occupation of the port facilities in central Libya by military forces of General Khalifa Haftar occurred last month suggests the emergence of possible new scenarios of uncertainty. Libya continues today to be divided between a parliament (and executive) in Tobruk and a presidential council (headed by Fayez Serraj) in Tripoli, supported by the United Nations, the first nucleus of what should be the National Unity Government (GNA) . In fact, both do not possess real ability to govern, but rather are "hostage" of the militias who support them and who control the territory, respectively, those of General Haftar in Cyrenaica and those associated Misrata and Tripoli in the west of the country.The Obama administration has not been able to make a decisive contribution to resolving the crisis, but gave a clear position. Continued to push for a solution mediated by the United Nations, he has tried to shrink at least the western front and then tried to revive the action of GNA strengthening it politically, economically and militarily. In what he found, first of all, an ally in Italy in. In several times during the year it was envisaged the possibility of negotiating with Haftar, provided that the general would accept a role-part in the UN governance while limiting its ambitions for hegemony over the entire Libya. However, the developments of the last months of 2016 make this more and more remote option, while international conditions seem to drastically weaken the chances of success of mediation.To limit any Rome-Washington axis ambition in this field there are the poor relations that both have with Cairo (the largest sponsors of Haftar) at this time. Mend the east with the west of the country without a bond of trust with the government of al-Sisi, it became increasingly difficult for diplomats of the two countries. What you can predict is that in the months to Rome might appear more isolated in these attempts since the new US administration could not follow the previous administration's line.Difficult to hope that some of the key figures in the new administration cares about the Libyan crisis. Rex Tillerson at the State Department is a businessman, a man of relationships, perhaps ready to make concessions to the Egyptians and Russians if this can help close the crisis. Perhaps the US could back to evaluate positively the Haftar paper, the apparent "strong man" emerging from the east of the country. Michael Flynn, director of the Trump safety has not distinguished in the recent past for the analysis capacity on the country, so much so that as a result of the attack in Benghazi where he died the American ambassador Christopher Stevens sought a pretext to find Iranian responsibility (!) in that attack. What we do not seem to need the Libyan crisis are preconceived thesis, tract or hasty disengagement. The Libyan crisis requires patience and leadership skills in dictating compromise lines. At present it is difficult to say with certainty whether the administration Trump is interested to have a leading role in this scenario.
END
"An informal stage, estimated at several hundred units, which, with varying levels of intensity, adopt the jihadist ideology. It is, in essence, a small group of subjects from the sociological characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity, education, social status) extremely heterogeneous but which shares the jihadist faith. [...] Most of these subjects was not involved in any violent action, but rather limits its militancy in often frantic activity on the Internet, aimed to disseminate material that ranges from the purely theological all'operativo. "In Italy it works well against terrorism?Typically the Italian anti-terrorism work is considered very good, probably for the particular history of Italy and the many years of experience in combating domestic terrorism, the right and left, and mafia organizations, such as the Camorra.
In addition, the former Interior Minister Angelino Alfano, now foreign minister, he used a lot of the expulsions instrument that is considered effective in the short term but in the long does not solve the problem. The journalist Giulia Paravicini wrote on Politico that from 2004 to 2014 the Italian government had expelled for reasons of national security an average of 14 people a year; in the last two years the number of expulsions has risen to 123, most of them aimed at Moroccans and Tunisians. Alfano told Paravicini, "We have extended the personal preventive measures that we apply to the Mafia suspects to our anti-terrorism laws. The key words here are "suspect" and "preventive measures", because what happens is not the result of a process and a condemnation, but something that precedes them. "In Italy the crime of terrorism is regulated by Article 270 of the Penal Code, which has been changed a lot over the past 15 years. The most recent changes were two. In February 2015 a law wanted by Alfano which among other things introduced the crime of "organization of transfers for the purposes of terrorism", which provides for 3 to 6 years in prison for "foreign fighters" were approved (one of crimes for which she was sentenced Maria Giulia Sergio) and those who organize, finance or makes propaganda for the jihad. The decree Alfano also predicted up to 10 years in prison for "lone wolves" and established an intelligence strengthening, encouraging such undercover operations.The second amendment to Article 270 of the Criminal Code was approved a few months ago, in July 2016, to give an opportunity to the authorities to punish even those who support and finance potential "lone wolves." Parliament is considering the introduction of other measures, but the times are often very long. For example, in early August, the Senate Judiciary Committee has approved the use of so-called "Trojan horse" in anti-terrorism investigations. The "Trojan horse" is software that can steal sensitive information or access to private computer systems without the user noticing it: the measure, that could make life easier for the investigation of online radicalization cases, however, must still complete in the parliamentary process.Things I do not even workThe fact that Italy has not yet suffered major terrorist attacks of Islamist-inspired does not mean that things work perfectly, or that there is nothing you can do better. Today improvable things seem to be mainly three (PDF). The first, wrote Bruno Megale, former head of counter-terrorism section of the Digos and now superintendent of Caltanissetta, is the lack of North African origin investigators, Balkan and Middle Eastern, lack that instead is not found in many other European countries. According Megale would be important to have investigators who know the places from which the majority of jihadists operating in Italy, in order to better understand their motives and their behaviors.The second problem, wrote Leonardo Lesti, deputy prosecutor at the court in Milan, is the difficulty of interpreting certain rules on terrorism: for example, when you can talk about self-training of a potential jihadist, a crime punishable by law today? How many times you have to watch a video of propaganda of the Islamic State so that we can actually talk about self-training? It is a problem that has been facing the law, but often without the knowledge and the tools to decide competently.The third problem, wrote Lorenzo Vidino, as the almost total lack of policies to prevent radicalization and those for de-radicalization of people who have already been indoctrinated (centers that promote inter-religious dialogue, for example, or structures with specialized staff that helps indoctrinated people to return to a "normal" life). As for prevention, one of the most discussed topics in Europe in recent years has been the management of prisoners considered to be at risk of radicalization: many of the radical Islamists who have been involved in attacks in Europe have been radicalized in prison, for example after entering in contacts with individuals convicted of terrorism (for the time being the main suspect of the attack in Berlin had spent four years in prison in Italy: the connection between the two is a question to be taken lightly, but it could also prove to be relevant) . In other European countries, these policies have existed for fifteen years, and the European Union itself has encouraged the spread, financing of state agencies programs and organizations. In Italy it is still on the high seas, even if something is moving.
In September 2014, former Interior Minister Angelino Alfano had spoken in Parliament the opportunity to initiate specific de-radicalization programs, and parliamentarians Andrea Manciulli (PD) and Stefano Dambruoso (Civic Choice) had submitted a bill on the subject ( PDF), which, however, is blocked by red tape notes of Italian Parliament.
This type of programs and structures could become even more necessary in a few years when it will spread a wider second-generation immigrant Muslims and Italy may face the same problems that are going through today, countries like France, Belgium and Germany.
TRUMP AND LIBYA
Among many of Obama's legacy, the new US administration will have to deal with the Libyan issue. The unorthodox appointment of Donald Trump in the key posts of foreign and defense administration is not clear if there will be, and what will be the guideline.If we would have expected a talk and substantial continuity over Libya as part of a possible Clinton administration (Hillary was just one of the major supporters of the intervention of 2011 in an Obama administration reluctant), any assumptions about policy Trump now seems a speculation. If we were to entrust us with the words spoken during the election campaign would clarify things do not. When the then Republican candidate publicly asked the Russians to hack emails on Libya Clinton, Libya was only an instrumental background of his livid election campaign. Trump repeatedly insisted that it was contrary to the interventions in Iraq and Libya, Hillary denied this but promptly recalling that actually supported the action against the Gaddafi regime. No possibility of new policy towards the crisis was outlined. For more than three months since last August the US was engaged in Operation Odyssey Lightening with the aim of striking the militiamen of the Islamic State in Sirte, a military campaign passed under track and that favored the pro-government forces of national unity Fayez Serraj.Although the defeat of ISIS appear as positive news in the Libyan scenario, the country does not seem to get out again by the ongoing crisis. The occupation of the port facilities in central Libya by military forces of General Khalifa Haftar occurred last month suggests the emergence of possible new scenarios of uncertainty. Libya continues today to be divided between a parliament (and executive) in Tobruk and a presidential council (headed by Fayez Serraj) in Tripoli, supported by the United Nations, the first nucleus of what should be the National Unity Government (GNA) . In fact, both do not possess real ability to govern, but rather are "hostage" of the militias who support them and who control the territory, respectively, those of General Haftar in Cyrenaica and those associated Misrata and Tripoli in the west of the country.The Obama administration has not been able to make a decisive contribution to resolving the crisis, but gave a clear position. Continued to push for a solution mediated by the United Nations, he has tried to shrink at least the western front and then tried to revive the action of GNA strengthening it politically, economically and militarily. In what he found, first of all, an ally in Italy in. In several times during the year it was envisaged the possibility of negotiating with Haftar, provided that the general would accept a role-part in the UN governance while limiting its ambitions for hegemony over the entire Libya. However, the developments of the last months of 2016 make this more and more remote option, while international conditions seem to drastically weaken the chances of success of mediation.To limit any Rome-Washington axis ambition in this field there are the poor relations that both have with Cairo (the largest sponsors of Haftar) at this time. Mend the east with the west of the country without a bond of trust with the government of al-Sisi, it became increasingly difficult for diplomats of the two countries. What you can predict is that in the months to Rome might appear more isolated in these attempts since the new US administration could not follow the previous administration's line.Difficult to hope that some of the key figures in the new administration cares about the Libyan crisis. Rex Tillerson at the State Department is a businessman, a man of relationships, perhaps ready to make concessions to the Egyptians and Russians if this can help close the crisis. Perhaps the US could back to evaluate positively the Haftar paper, the apparent "strong man" emerging from the east of the country. Michael Flynn, director of the Trump safety has not distinguished in the recent past for the analysis capacity on the country, so much so that as a result of the attack in Benghazi where he died the American ambassador Christopher Stevens sought a pretext to find Iranian responsibility (!) in that attack. What we do not seem to need the Libyan crisis are preconceived thesis, tract or hasty disengagement. The Libyan crisis requires patience and leadership skills in dictating compromise lines. At present it is difficult to say with certainty whether the administration Trump is interested to have a leading role in this scenario.
END
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