AL SERAJ IN FREE FALL?

Abandoned the main tribes, the Libyan prime minister recognized by the international community Fayez al-Sarraj and his government of national unity (GNA) are struggling even with the national oil company (NOC) which holds the purse strings of the proceeds from exports of crude oil, currently the only legitimate source of Libyan currency.

Mustafa Sanalla NOC head, criticized GNA for having decided to close the Ministry of Petroleum and cut production, in what it considers an abuse of jurisdiction to the detriment of the NOC. Sanalla said al-Sarraj is "going beyond his authority," referring to recent government measure that assigns the prime minister (that is, to himself) - and not Sanalla - contract management, investments, projects and oil supply, leaving the NOC only a performer role of government plans.

The NOC has has officially requested the withdrawal of the measure by which al-Sarraj has tried to cash directly export revenues of crude that currently the NIC manages the seats terminal under the control of Haftar troops in the "Crescent"

Moreover Sanalla is considered a non-partisan character, who enjoys the respect of all parties to the conflict and has worked hard in recent months to re-attract the confidence of international investors. The attempt to deprive his authority has not proved a good deal for al-Sarraj, now more and more isolated.

In support of Sanalla have spoken the five ambassadors of the countries with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, saying jointly that "the oil infrastructure, production and export revenues belong to the Libyan people and must remain under the NOC administration’’.

In fact now the man on whom Rome has given the task to stabilize Libya and stop the illegal immigrant flows to Italy does not seem to enjoy even more the support of the Un which created his government.

LIBYA RUSSIA & ITALY

On Monday 27.3.2017, the Italian Foreign Minister Angelino Alfano has flown on a visit to Russia.

That of chief diplomat was the first of a round of visits that will continue with the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella,who will be in Moscow in April, and the prime minister Paolo Gentiloni in May (just after the first meeting in Washington with Donald Trump). Italy, said Alfano, believes that Russia is "a very reliable partner in energy supply and in combating terrorism."

Hence one of the themes at the center: Libya, where energy issues and terrorism fit together. The North African country is still suffering from the old divisions of at least three years (but in fact are more or less double), and this despite the establishment of a wannabe-premier, Fayez Serraj,chosen by the UN to lead the Libyan reunification. Italy is the main sponsor of the UN system program, while in recent months Russia has run blatantly manifested behind its main opposition, the one that has based in the east of the country and is led by a general political, Khalifa Haftar,sponsored by Egypt and the Arab Emirates. Two positions at least in appearance seem conflicting. "We must encourage an inclusive dialogue - said Lavrov - and stop betting on a single force, of Tripoli at the expense of Tobruk, or vice versa. When even the West will understand, you will have some results. " Even Italy "wants a role for Haftar, but inside the Serraj government under the UN auspices" explained Alfano, making it less clear distance between the two locations.

On Friday, during a press conference, General Thomas Waldhauser, head of Africom (Pentagon command that manages operations in Africa), confirmed to reporters the revelations of a scoop Reuters two-week ago: There are Russian soldiers, probably men of the special forces, in Egypt, near the border with Libya."I'm on the ground, they are trying to influence the situation, look what they do with great concern and you know, in addition to the military side we have seen and known, a bit 'of recent activity in business initiatives," said the US general.
Russia finished with the NOC (Libyan oil Corp) an oil deal a few weeks ago, probably these are the "business initiatives" referred to by Waldhauser. With a note: what does Moscow is exactly the same as they do and they did the Americans, British, French and Italian, just that the Russians are on the other side with an "undeniable connection Haftar", says the general, while the Western support Serraj. Another note: Russia is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, which is the organ operational program which also supports the UN in Libya, of which Italy this year is a temporary member.

MARSHAL KHALIFA HAFTAR 11.3.2017

MKH (Marshal Khalifa Haftar) is now under pressure. He lost control of major oil terminals at Ras Lanuf and Sidra, in favor of Defense Brigades in Benghazi (DBB).

                                   

    MKH immediately mobilized its troops from the Libyan National Army (LNA) and launched them to use these trump cards of the Libyan scene.

    MKH is considered the strong man of eastern Libya, especially after taking over control of the Crescent oil terminals and ensured the resumption of oil exports in September, in addition to alignment of the majority of tribes in the region behind. The woes of the forces of LNA, dislodged the ports of Ras Lanuf and Sidra, therefore weaken MKH field of negotiations, including with foreign powers, with which the MKH says its complete control over eastern Libya. Moreover, the reverse was felt as a national defeat, to the east, where the political reactions of breaking the national dialogue, from the Parliament of Tobruk and his calls to take revenge on the terrorists and mercenaries, according Parliament releases and statements spokesman LNA Ahmed Mismari.

    Complex Equation

situation at the ports of Ras Lanuf and Sidra is complex. General Driss Boukhmada implemented Fayez El Sarraj order to guard oil facilities, said to have regained control of the ports by BDB.

But Gatrani Ali, member of the Presidential Council considers that this appointment is unlawful because the appointing authority is the Parliament. And in fact, the two ports are closed. Tankers headed to the ports of Zouitina and Briga, 200 kilometers further east, towards Benghazi. The National Oil Company (NOC), based in Tripoli, trying to keep his distance from the Eastern and Western authorities to continue to work. Beyond the ports of Ras Lanuf and Sidra, MKH troops dominate the oil fields and the majority of other ports. NOC cannot therefore conflict with them, see them for fear of blocking the production.

    The impact of this crisis is, so far, limited. The average daily exports increased from 715,000 barrels to 650,000 barrels. MKH is facing the risk of Jadhrane troops, the commander of dislodged ports in September, execute their threat to set fire to the large oil tanker port of Sidra and Ras Lanuf. Threat that has already been uttered many times in the past. MKH just took them by surprise in September. A risk worth taking into account when the expected attack of such sites by the troops of the LNA.

    The world is watching

    Apart spokesman of the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, Abu Zid, who accused troops close to Al Qaeda to take part in the attack against the Libyan  Crescent oil ports, the rest of the international community that criticism rising tensions around oil ports and calls for the resumption of dialogue between the Libyan belligerents. Only the Italian ambassador in Tripoli said that control of oil ports by forces under the Presidential Council is a step in the right direction.

    The Libyan political analyst Ezzedine Aguil explains the caution of other powers in that they know that "the balance of power on the ground is favorable to the LNA MKH, comparing his troops with those of the Brigades of Benghazi." Aguil draws attention to the fact that "Charkassi and brigades are supported by the Ministry of Defence of Tripoli." So he thinks that there is "a risk of global confrontation in Libya" To support his argument, the political scientist emphasized that "MKH protected the city of Ajdabya before announcing the counter-attack against the ports of Ras Lanuf and Sidra." Yet he points out, BDB does not have the potential to reach this key city in eastern Libya.

LIBYAN WARS?

In Libya, the surprise recovery by extremist Islamist militias of two oil fields in the east aborted all efforts led by the countries neighboring Libya to meet Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj Tripoli and Marshal Khalifa Haftar. In the absence of dialogue the drums of war are heard again.

       

If one believes a senior Libyan forces is led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, preparations are complete. Forces continue to arrive in the increasing oil before battle. Two oil fields on the four that make up the oil are increasing, since March 4, at the hands of Benghazi defense brigades and other Islamist militias.

A new war for power in Libya is committed. Islamist militia meanwhile, announced in a press conference in Misrata that they will continue their march to liberate Benghazi. To the west of this city, a war between them Haftar forces for over two and a half years. These brigades said they could have 4000 officers.

Many experts consider that it is difficult to dislodge the Islamists Haftar oilfield after losing this battle, but the Libyan land is viscous: what is impossible today may be possible tomorrow and vice versa.

Alliances of interest rate variation

recent months, the attitude judged as "dictatorial" by domestic allies of the Marshal, had removed him significant support: the eastern tribes who supported last September to take oil fields, without shedding a drop of blood, supporters of the old regime, Sudanese fighters Justice and equality but also the Libyan civil society after its decision to ban from leaving the country for men and women under 45 years old.

Haftar finds herself weakened. Abroad, he embarrassed his ally, Egypt, canceling at the last minute a scheduled meeting last month between him and Prime Minister of the government of Tripoli Fayez el-Sarraj. By uniting with the Salafis of Saudi trend, he also angered Egypt.

Haftar: a weakened position

The strong man is the Libyan, who was able to juggle difficult alliances, lost several of its supports. It is now weakened and this is a way for his allies to "reason with him,"said an expert. And as on the map of Libya, the master is the one who owns the oil fields, the new distribution of roles between different Libyan protagonists go through the land, to the detriment of a political solution.

The defeat of Haftar March 4 has changed the situation in Libya. He lost the war for oil. Now, each party will seek victory before going back to the table of national dialogue.

LIBYA 4.3.2017

Al Sarraj has flown to Moscow. With this simple act the West acknowledges the impasse of the Libyan crisis and relies on other solutions.

Let's step back.

The government in Tripoli recognized with trumpets and drums by the UN, the US and the EU actually has no powers. It is an almost virtual Executive which administers less than a third of the country and is more accountable to Islamic placards heavily penetrated by fundamentalism. In order to survive (in the real sense of the term), Al Sarraj has to answer to the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic bloc dominant galaxy that currently dominates in Tripoli with the consent of US and Britain. Not all the territory is under control. In addition to the Berber of Zintan, an ally of the first hour of Tobruk Parliament, the regions toward the Niger and those close to the borders with Tunisia and Algeria have a highway of arms trafficking destined for the Sahel and to be intended for human ' Europe. In the same areas is very strong Islamist presence.

Endorsement received by Al Sarraj, after 15 months from the agreements taken in Morocco, is producing its fruits: absolute zero.

Cyrenaica in turn continues the path independent of Tripoli, with General Haftar increasingly linked to Egypt Al Sisi and by the end of 2016, officially recognized as a partner by Moscow. In other words: Libya that the United States and Europe have done everything to divide despite the declarations of intent, it is today. de facto divided

In this context, Russia has played cunning, leveraging decades of special relations with Arab countries, especially with some of the Mediterranean region; among these are distinguished from Algeria, Egypt (Sadat pre and post Mubarak) and of course Libya, which under Gaddafi was already a head of the Moscow bridge.

Despite the alarmism of some media that shout to the landing of the Russians in North Africa, just a simple book of history to understand: the Russians, strong structural links in the area, are filling a diplomatic vacuum generated by six years of war and instability.

The lack of a credible national state and the lack of communication between  "AngloItalianIslamic" Tripoli and Cyrenaica, Egyptian yarn, have created a vacuum in which continues the illegal export of hydrocarbons and the unchallenged domination of local militias.

The standoff punctuated by constant conflicts, can be unlocked by the only party potentially able to speak in Tripoli and Tobruk, ie Moscow.

The relationship between Haftar and Russia has been discussed for months. Jailbird was the common weave with Egypt Al Sisi, the sworn enemy of the Muslim Brotherhood and thus of the clique in power in Tripoli. Downloaded from the USA which has been pampered for twenty years, the 74 year-old general is the only real opposition to the spread of radical Islam in Libya. In a few years he has grouped all nostalgic former Qaddafi regime, identified mostly with officers, officials and secular, middle-class paintings.

The rapid convergence of recent times between Cairo and Moscow is now the largest strategic guarantee for Haftar, that on the Mediterranean shore can also count on the support of Algeria, another longtime friend of Russia, whose stockpiles recently rimpinguati, they could serve as tank for those militiamen of Cyrenaica.

As we said at the top, the real news, however, is the journey of Al Sarraj in Moscow, to be considered as a kind of Western diplomatic abdication.

Behind the effort of the "premier" Libya is the political bridge between Turkey and Russia. It is no coincidence that the concrete attempts at contact between Tripolitania and Cyrenaica we started precisely in parallel to thaw between Ankara and Moscow last summer. Turkey is the main sponsor of the Muslim Brotherhood, which controls Tripoli. In summary, if they wanted the Turks and Russians, Libya would have a serious chance to regain stability.

The stakes are enormous, primarily for economic reasons. The journey of Al Sarraj in Russia comes a few days an agreement between the National Oil Corporation and Rosneft,the oil giants controlled respectively from Tripoli and Moscow. The agreement provides for the joint exploitation of Libyan resources and echoed the Russian economic interests in the Arab country, put into serious question after the elimination of Gaddafi and the arrival of Western multinationals. In this regard it is worth remembering that Rosneft is owned 50% directly from the Russian government.

Another aspect that could benefit from it is certainly the traffic of "refugees" in the hands of Islamist armed groups and local and Italian organized crime. Among the many reasons which have hitherto prevented Libya to return to a semblance of normality is the fact that many do not agree. Suffice it to say that today the country is the African end of the sale of "migrants" from armoured while Gaddafi's Libya did not go out even a fly.

In this context it should be mentioned the Italian-Libyan agreement signed in Rome on February 2 from Gentiloni Prime Minister and Al Sarraj. The agreement provides for cooperation to stem illegal immigration. For how can there be good faith between the parties, the Memorandum collides with the reality of the facts: on one side there is a leader who does not control the country that undertakes (Libya); the other a country that does not control its own borders (Italy). Just Italy, heavily involved Libyan extractive economy and deployed on the front row with the 'Operation Hippocrates in Misrata, is among the countries that would benefit more from a release of the Libyan deadlock.

The match is to be played. The contact between Al Sarraj and Moscow at present seems the only real possibility of thinking of an effective agreement between the government of Tripoli and Tobruk Parliament. It remains to see the reaction of the minor subjects, almost never completely aligned to the two main poles of the Libyan crisis.

That's yesterday's news that the jihadi militias in Benghazi have torn Libyan National Army (the Haftar forces based in Tobruk) oil terminals at Ras Lanuf and Sidra, part of the Crescent Petroleum of Cyrenaica conquered by Haftar in September. It did not bode well.

END