It arouses hopes and perhaps some easy illusion
of the positive outcome of the talks between Marshal Khalifa Haftar and
the "premier" Libyan recognized by the international community Fayez
al-Sarraj, held on Tuesday in Abu Dhabi with the mediation of the United
Arab Emirates.
The positive aspect is undoubtedly the fact that the two are spoken after the Cairo summit was skipped the last time in February for refusing to Haftar. A no to talks aimed perhaps highlight the extreme weakness of al-Sarraj, isolated in the same Tripolitania hostility of many militias and the lack of confidence in his government of many tribes that have meanwhile developed links and alliances with the general who controls the Cyrenaica, the desert south of the country and energy terminal of the "Crescent petroleum."
Moreover, the very fact that the summit will be held in the UAE, politically and militarily engaged alongside Haftar along with Egypt and Russia, speaks volumes on the evolution of the balance of power in Libya 13 months after the settlement of al-Sarraj the naval base in Abu Sittah, near Tripoli, in fact still the only strip of land under the control of the prime minister.
In Abu Dhabi, the two have reached an agreement on the disarmament of militias and new presidential elections by March 2018. The first point seems to agree especially al-Sarraj, threatened by the various militias of Tripoli and especially those linked to the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis supported by Qatar and Turkey, so far real arbiters of the fate of Tripoli and that they had given the green light to the establishment of the Sarraj, at the end of March last year, after a lively meeting of all militias in the region held not surprisingly in Istanbul.
The second point could instead benefit Haftar that thanks to military force and the support of key Libyan tribes could get your fill of electoral consensus and establish itself, legitimately, as a new "strong man" of our former colony.
The cartel terms remain in any case uncertain and devoid of substance will not be clarified until a plan articulated to implement it. It will be difficult to establish such militias must disarm and which assurgeranno to the role of national armed forces which certainly draws the Libyan National Army of Haftar driven also by officials linked to the forces of the late dictator Muammar Gheddafi.
The trick to merge all militias in Libyan imaginary national forces has already proved unsuccessful after the fall of the Gaddafi regime, but it is clear that Abu Dhabi will leave many understood tribal and military forces unmet.
Hard to believe that an agreement can not include the militias of Misrata, true "Sparta" of Tripoli whose forces a very powerful time, however, have weakened in the long siege of Sirte, defense for seven months by the fighters of the Islamic State now taken refuge in the desert south of the city. Measured, however, has always been hostile to Haftar as well as the different militias mostly Islamist that control of Tripoli districts and the surrounding region.
This means that the "disarmament" expression of the militias could imply harsh military operations against the forces now deployed around the capital. An operation now available to Haftar and its allies in Tripoli, especially the militant militias from Zintan but would presuppose instability and war for a long time. A long time even considering that the Haftar troops have fought two years to expel definitely the jihadi militias from Benghazi.
There is "optimistic about a" political solution reported a source in the Foreign Ministry of the Emirates, calling for the appointment of a new envoy to replace the German Martin Kobler (pictured above) confirming that an agreement that stabilize Libya without further war developments will pass more easily from the Persian Gulf (an agreement between the UAE and Qatar, sponsors of the respective opposing Libyan fronts?) from Rome or from the European chancelleries.
Moreover, without a widely shared political agreement (also advocated by the powers involved in the crisis) it will be impossible to carry out elections that have a minimum of credibility. Cartel, if it materializes, would seem to emerge stronger position but also the Haftar al-Sarraj has everything to gain from an agreement without which his figure is likely to gradually lose weight up to irrelevance.
Better still do not have any illusions about the swift implementation of the maxim that seems to have been reached in Abu Dhabi and at the moment is only a possibility, if not a hope of being able to stabilization of Libya.
Difficult indeed predict developments in this short-term sense even on illegal immigration front towards Italy (indeed, it seems that Haftar has imposed the waiver to apply the agreement signed in February by al-Sarraj with Rome), which affects business the coasts of Tripoli between Misurata and the Tunisian border of which is at least half of gross domestic product, provided you can use a similar term for a "failed state."
Just the economic reach of human trafficking makes it all the more difficult their dismantling by the Libyan forces (even if you train from Italy and soon reinforced by patrol boats donated by Rome) without the use of force by the Italian and European fleets so far they limited themselves to promote business by traffickers moving to Italy for illegal immigrants rescued at sea.
The positive aspect is undoubtedly the fact that the two are spoken after the Cairo summit was skipped the last time in February for refusing to Haftar. A no to talks aimed perhaps highlight the extreme weakness of al-Sarraj, isolated in the same Tripolitania hostility of many militias and the lack of confidence in his government of many tribes that have meanwhile developed links and alliances with the general who controls the Cyrenaica, the desert south of the country and energy terminal of the "Crescent petroleum."
Moreover, the very fact that the summit will be held in the UAE, politically and militarily engaged alongside Haftar along with Egypt and Russia, speaks volumes on the evolution of the balance of power in Libya 13 months after the settlement of al-Sarraj the naval base in Abu Sittah, near Tripoli, in fact still the only strip of land under the control of the prime minister.
In Abu Dhabi, the two have reached an agreement on the disarmament of militias and new presidential elections by March 2018. The first point seems to agree especially al-Sarraj, threatened by the various militias of Tripoli and especially those linked to the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis supported by Qatar and Turkey, so far real arbiters of the fate of Tripoli and that they had given the green light to the establishment of the Sarraj, at the end of March last year, after a lively meeting of all militias in the region held not surprisingly in Istanbul.
The second point could instead benefit Haftar that thanks to military force and the support of key Libyan tribes could get your fill of electoral consensus and establish itself, legitimately, as a new "strong man" of our former colony.
The cartel terms remain in any case uncertain and devoid of substance will not be clarified until a plan articulated to implement it. It will be difficult to establish such militias must disarm and which assurgeranno to the role of national armed forces which certainly draws the Libyan National Army of Haftar driven also by officials linked to the forces of the late dictator Muammar Gheddafi.
The trick to merge all militias in Libyan imaginary national forces has already proved unsuccessful after the fall of the Gaddafi regime, but it is clear that Abu Dhabi will leave many understood tribal and military forces unmet.
Hard to believe that an agreement can not include the militias of Misrata, true "Sparta" of Tripoli whose forces a very powerful time, however, have weakened in the long siege of Sirte, defense for seven months by the fighters of the Islamic State now taken refuge in the desert south of the city. Measured, however, has always been hostile to Haftar as well as the different militias mostly Islamist that control of Tripoli districts and the surrounding region.
This means that the "disarmament" expression of the militias could imply harsh military operations against the forces now deployed around the capital. An operation now available to Haftar and its allies in Tripoli, especially the militant militias from Zintan but would presuppose instability and war for a long time. A long time even considering that the Haftar troops have fought two years to expel definitely the jihadi militias from Benghazi.
There is "optimistic about a" political solution reported a source in the Foreign Ministry of the Emirates, calling for the appointment of a new envoy to replace the German Martin Kobler (pictured above) confirming that an agreement that stabilize Libya without further war developments will pass more easily from the Persian Gulf (an agreement between the UAE and Qatar, sponsors of the respective opposing Libyan fronts?) from Rome or from the European chancelleries.
Moreover, without a widely shared political agreement (also advocated by the powers involved in the crisis) it will be impossible to carry out elections that have a minimum of credibility. Cartel, if it materializes, would seem to emerge stronger position but also the Haftar al-Sarraj has everything to gain from an agreement without which his figure is likely to gradually lose weight up to irrelevance.
Better still do not have any illusions about the swift implementation of the maxim that seems to have been reached in Abu Dhabi and at the moment is only a possibility, if not a hope of being able to stabilization of Libya.
Difficult indeed predict developments in this short-term sense even on illegal immigration front towards Italy (indeed, it seems that Haftar has imposed the waiver to apply the agreement signed in February by al-Sarraj with Rome), which affects business the coasts of Tripoli between Misurata and the Tunisian border of which is at least half of gross domestic product, provided you can use a similar term for a "failed state."
Just the economic reach of human trafficking makes it all the more difficult their dismantling by the Libyan forces (even if you train from Italy and soon reinforced by patrol boats donated by Rome) without the use of force by the Italian and European fleets so far they limited themselves to promote business by traffickers moving to Italy for illegal immigrants rescued at sea.
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