Tuesday 10 October 2017

The fragile hope of a new peace process in Libya

   
on 5 October there was a terrorist attack claimed by the Islamic State group in Misurata, Libya. At least four people were killed in the city court, while there was an ongoing process. In a statement taken by the agency of jihadist propaganda Amaq the terrorist group said they wanted to hit "one of the strongholds" of the government of the Libyan National Unity recognized by the international community, led by what the Fayez Serraj.
It was long known that the terrorist group does not put a sign in attacks in the Libyan city. Misrata has been the target of a series of attacks in 2015, and in 2016 it was feared that he might be under attack again after a coalition of militias original city (under the protection of the government of Tripoli) It has fought for six months against the Is to regain control of Sirte.
Second military sources,the terrorist group is reorganizing to Libya in three areas: south of Sirte, Cyrenaica around the oasis of Kufra, near the Egyptian border and in the Fezzan. "The Islamic State group can not control the territory, but there are sleeper cells in major Libyan cities," explains Mattia Toaldo European council on foreign relations.
   
For this the end of September US drone, took off from bases in Sicily, some bombed positions of the terrorist group. Without a credible peace project, however, the country seems destined to remain in chaos, torn between dozens of troops and at least two power groups.
The UN's proposal
On 20 September Ghassan Salamé that August is the UN envoy to Libya, presented a new plan for peace in the country, ahead of the end of the mandate of the Serraj Fayez to lead the national unity government, which expires in December of 2017. According Salamé "Libyans want a peace process led by themselves "and for that you need to change the political agreement signed in Skhirat, Morocco, December 17, 2015, to overcome the rivalry between the parliament and the Tripoli to Tobruk (installed in the east).
Libya is in chaos since 2011, after the revolt that led to the fall of Colonel Muammar Gheddafi and the armed intervention of NATO. In the village there are two governments and the two parliaments and dozens of militias vying for control of the territory and its resources. The United Nations has recognized and supported the government in Tripoli, headed by Fayez to Serraj, which has sought to extend its authority, without much success. The legitimacy of the government of Al Serraj is contested primarily by General Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army, which claims the parliament in Tobruk, in Cyrenaica, and is expanding its influence in the country with the help of Egypt, United Arab States and Russia (and some good will on the part of France).
As a first step to start the peace process, Salamé wants to convene a table of negotiations in Tunis to draft a Libyan 2015. Amend Later the secretary general of the United Nations may convene a national peace conference put around a table the different Libyan groups that have been excluded or underrepresented in previous peace talks. The goal is to reconnect parliamentarians and political groups excluded from the earlier peace agreement and agree a common approach and deadlines leading to a constitutional referendum and new parliamentary and presidential elections. But doubts about the effectiveness and feasibility of this plan are numerous.
The role of Haftar
The Salamé plan is better than those of the past, believes Mattia Toaldo European council on foreign relations, because it "combines the negotiations between parliamentarians with a national conference, as he called himself, that it should involve civil society and the forces that have so far been marginalized in Libya ". Not all forces are in fact represented in parliament, starting with those who supported the former Gaddafi regime, but still continue to play a fundamental role in the conflict.
The Salamé challenge is not so much in Libya, where there is a strong desire for dialogue and peace, but in the other countries of North Africa and the Middle East participating in the negotiations. "One of the problems is Egypt, who may want to call into question the agreement expiring on December 17 and start from scratch. At that point the government Europe could be recognized by several Arab countries in addition to Egypt, as the UAE, "says Toaldo.
   
It is not very clear what is going to Sabrata
   
The plan presents several critical points: the interest of the parliamentarians of Cyrenaica who want to maintain the status quo, the December deadline that could be used by Egypt to promote the Cyrenaica, and finally agreements at negotiated at the regional level as well as national, because all countries in the conflict will want to participate in the peace talks. Finally what it's going on in recent weeks Sabrata "does not bode well" on the national peace plan, according Toaldo. Sabratha, a town seventy kilometers from Tripoli, is one of the main ports of departure of direct migrant boats in Europe and one of the human trafficking centers on the coast: in recent weeks the city has been the scene of fighting several intense intergroup armed its rivals for control of traffic of people.
"It is not very clear what is going to Sabrata: some sources claim that armed groups close to the general Haftar are fighting against the militia of Dabbashi clans, who control most of the town and the traffic in human beings", because they want to in jeopardy the Italian intelligence agreements, unveiled by some journalistic investigations,to stop the departures of migrants, says Toaldo. But this version does not seem entirely convincing: "Sabrata is traditionally very hostile to Haftar and it seems hard so that the General can extend its influence in the city and nothing can guarantee to foreign partners. It could just deal of fighting between rival militias (as Operation  room) that were cut off by the agreement with the Italians on migrants. "
What you should worry more, adds Toaldo, is the growing influence of Salafis in Sabratha and across Libya. "The Salafists have 28 radio stations throughout Libya, are conquering one by one all the mosques of Tripoli, are very important in the Haftar power structure and are also present in Sirte," explains Toaldo. "What is their plan for the future of Libya and those who finance them is not clear, however, I doubt that they are interested in cooperating to establish a liberal democracy," concludes Toaldo.

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