Military intervention may drive locals into ISIS arms

A dilemma with Libyan foreign military intervention is that it may be ineffective and, also, it could drive Libyans opposed to it into the arms of Islamic State, Oliver Miles, former UK ambassador to Libya, says.

The Pentagon confirmed that US fighter jets carried out airstrikes on an Islamic State (IS), base in Libya targeting the mastermind behind last year's terror attacks on tourist sites in Tunisia. Two Serbian embassy staff, abducted in Libya and held hostage since November, are believed to have been among those killed in the US airstrikes.

RT: How likely is it that the US carried out the airstrikes without authorization from the Libyan authorities?

Oliver Miles: There is really no Libyan authority in existence able to invite them, so I assume that they did that on their own authority.

RT: A recent UN Security Council resolution urged to support Libya's unity government against ISIS. Does that give the right for such attacks like this one? How far can this support go?

OM: No, it doesn’t, unfortunately. We’re nearly there. If the United Nations concentrates on supporting that there may yet be an effective Libyan government. But it is not there now.

RT: Washington did warn it will go after ISIS in Libya. Do you expect more such strikes in future?

OM: There isn’t a government in being which is capable of inviting foreign intervention. I am not comfortable about intervention of this kind. The fact is the world faces a dilemma. It is a very dangerous presence of ISIS in Libya, it is a threat to all of us, it is a threat in particular to Europe and to the world. But the dilemma is that if we intervene militarily, first of all it probably won’t be effective, and secondly, if we are not very careful we are going to drive the Libyans into the arms of ISIS because they will object very strongly to foreign intervention. The intervention that happened seems to have been well judged, the target was not Sirte, which is the main center of ISIS in Libya, but another place called Sabratha  - which is west of Tripoli where there are said to be ISIS training camps. About 40 people were killed, from the Libyan reports I have seen so far, none of them were Libyans, they were all foreign fighters. And that is very good news because killing Libyans is the one thing of course, that would drive the Libyans into the arms of ISIS.   

RT: You don’t believe that there is an established government in Libya. Does it make Libya effectively free for all at the moment until there is a recognized government?

OM: That’s the dilemma. There is something of a vacuum. That is why ISIS have established themselves there. Foreign fighters, mainly, Tunisians, but also including fighters from Syria and from ISIS in the Syria – Iraq area have been gathering there precisely because there is no effective authority. The world is trying to build an effective authority. The UN has been negotiating for months to put together a new Libyan government and I hope they’ll succeed. They haven’t quite succeeded yet.

There is a problem when you decapitate nations like Iraq, Syria or Libya: you risk chaos. And once you have that, the UN is powerless to stop it with military force, said John Graham, former US diplomat in Libya.

RT: So the Pentagon is using what it calls Authorization of Use of Force against Al-Qaeda to fight ISIS in Libya. But does that provide sufficient legal grounds for airstrikes?

John Graham: I think it is irrelevant… These things are great power moves. What is the justification for Russian jets bombing in Aleppo or American jets and French and whatever jets bombing other parts of Syria. There are resolutions taken… We are looking very hard for ways to keep ISIS from getting a serious stronghold in Libya. ISIS has basically established safe havens in Libya just as the Taliban did in Afghanistan a decade ago. And so we are trying to wipe them out. It is confusing and chaotic enough in Libya. But if Libya also becomes a safe haven for ISIS, then it becomes even worse for us, for Russia and everyone else who is trying to eliminate this scourge.

RT: Why did the Pentagon spokesperson decline to specify precisely what Libyan authorities were notified of before the strikes?

JG: The matter of fact is that there are dozens of authorities in Libya; I have no idea who they talk to. There is an internationally recognized government in Tobruk in the east, which is basically anti-Islamic. I suspect that is who the US “talks” to. But there is also another so-called government based in Tripoli, which is more Islamist in nature. I doubt that US talk to them. There are 68 militias operating in Libya. Does the US talk to any of them? Some of them are pro-Islamist, some are anti-Islamist and most of them are fighting within themselves. Then, of course, there is a tribal system in Libya, which was very apparent when I worked there as a diplomat a long time ago. It is complete chaos and a lot of it is tribally based. On top of all this politics, on top of Sunni-Shia, on top of Islamist-non Islamist, you have an enormously complicated tribal network. So, who are the authorities anybody talks to to get permission, to get anything done in Libya. The whole question is…I was about to say a little bit silly, but I don’t want to be disrespectful to colleagues in the Pentagon…but it is strange.

RT: If Libya's UN backed government is approved by parliament, do you think its leaders will last and be effective?

JG: Let’s not forget the UN doesn’t exactly do what people thought it would do in 1945.

UN at best can provide effective peace monitoring, but it is not a peace building organization.

You may get permission from the parliament but the only recognized parliament is that from the government in Tobruk in eastern Libya. There is another parliament in Tripoli.

Then there are all these other players.

The idea of UN being able to cobble together all of this and make it all work in some kind of agreed fashion is way beyond the UN’s capacities. You need some stronger force, much stronger incentive than the UN can supply to take these different players and cobble them together to create a working nation. What does that mean? Do you bring back a strong man? But look what happened to Gaddafi? This is the problem when you decapitate nations like Iraq, Syria or Libya. You risk chaos. And once you have that kind of chaos, the UN is pretty powerless to stop it with military force.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN ITALY FOR LIBYA

What new Libya? Many, or none: in such a fluid situation, every judgment depends on the observer's visual, and the parameters used by the analyst. In fact, those that would seem at first reading of the news, in fact they are not. These developments were widely expected.

It might surprise you, but that also applies to the attack near Sabratha by USAF F-15 started from UK base. Again there is only this time the targeted attack was done with two fighter jets instead of drones. It 'a clear sign that the intelligence that allies are waging a long time on the territory on the ground and from air (but also from the sea) is beginning to bear fruit and reliable target was of significant interest.

Interesting is the ex-post cooperation of the local municipalities, obviously glad to see that someone is trying to dislodge some unwanted guests. It 'a good signal too, which means the real state of mind of ordinary Libyans. Even in Libya, apparently they are better than the politicians who claim to represent them.

At the moment, then, the misfortune of a headlong rush of the three actors more pawing seems averted, but there is also fully aware that if the internal agreement delays, someone might get tired and take action.

But only against IS. And 'more than obvious, now, about two parallel agendas, which, however, interfere and delay the process: an internal and other international.

The interior is carried out by Libyan actors, and international by UN, under pressure from the "magnificent three" US, UK with Italy that looks and moves with apprehension, to understand what will actually be the role for which,

Italy a bit in the dark, but self candidate.

The two agendas have goals or better to say priorities, different from each other.

The first tends to solve the puzzle of the new government, which the Presidency Council has already laid out in a reduced size (13 ministers and 5 secretaries of state) and submitted to the parliament in Tobruk.

We will know in the next few days,  after solution of so-called "Haftar node". the second is pressed by the urgency to launch a major Peace-keeping (the one that should be entrusted to the coordination of Italy) operation, giving at the same time (or perhaps before) a strong increase for IS struggle and at the same time, contain the flow of migrants to Europe

Fortress Europe. A huge task that in our opinion, will be Afghanistan type.

The UN cliché, unfortunately, seems to always be the same, considered good for every situation.

Hopefully, at least, that the result is always the same. Where’s Italy? Anxiously waits, knowing that, whatever happens, sooner or later have to take its role of responsibility for which has been proposed.

Certainly, our military will have already prepared a number of intervention modules, good for anything: their task is to always be prepared, plan and provide policy-makers feasible options and supportable with our resources.

This process requires Defense Supreme Council meeting with President of Italy due on 25.2.16 which could be the first step.

IS (DAESH) STRATEGY 17.2.2015

IS wants to destroy Libyan oil wealth instead of profit as it has already demonstrated the ability to do in Syria and Iraq. Here why. Self-proclaimed Islamic State, which in June 2014 was located between Iraq and Syria, it has now become a global company with approximately 50 affiliated groups or supporters that operate "franchise" under the brand of the Caliphate in 21 nations. He has held 33 official provinces in 11 of these countries.
While IS lost about a quarter of the territory it conquered in Iraq and Syria, it has since established an international presence on the ground, in cyberspace and in the popular imagination.
In Libya alone, Daesh has doubled its presence in the last 12 months and now, according to the Pentagon, has between 5000 and 6500 trained fighters. While the opposition forces should confront the jihadists are defined as "unreliable, insecure, disorganized and divided into different areas and tribes often hostile to each other."
US Secretary of State, John Kerry, a few days ago warned that "the last thing I would like the world is a false caliphate with access to billions of dollars in oil profits." Despite several years of growing US concerns about the fate of Libya, concrete responses were feeble and least mitigated by energy self mirage when - with oil at $ 100 a barrel - was still convenient to extract oil from shale on US soil rather than garantirsene the import from abroad (if necessary by force).
It is evident embarrassment, not only American, to embark on yet another war in a Muslim land; This is why diplomats around the world are making every effort to consolidate and allow the settlement of the Libyan government "of national unity." But, given the limited success of this effort, they are already planning air strikes, commando attacks localized on strategic and Libyan militia training objectives. They evaluate, in short, all of the options that require the minimum possible number of Westerners on the ground to try to retract the fewest possible deaths.
Meanwhile, few have noticed that the Caliphate in Libya has adopted an "energy policy" as opposed to that already adopted in Syria and Iraq, where it has put into production at the wells and organized a clandestine distribution circuit with the formally enemy Turkey. In Libya, however, the terrorists attacking the oil infrastructure to weaken the two rival governments. For now, it is content to destroy, because it has no forces and skills necessary to capture and control wells and to refine and distribute oil.
In fact, 2015 was a terrible year for Libyan oil industry. Civil war and the consolidation of the Caliphate threat (which, here as elsewhere, has infiltrated taking advantage of institutions weakness) prevented the oil industry to maintain rapid recovery that had been able to show in the second half of 2014. The 2015 was the worst year for energy production from the Libyan civil war of 2011: 400 thousand barrels per day (25% of actual capacity) and they managed to export only 250 thousand. The fall in oil prices has done the rest: it is estimated that, in 2015, the Central Bank of Libya has grossed less than $ 5 billion.
A possible recovery in 2016 cannot be excluded a priori, but hopes are not high. Any revival in Libyan production - and therefore the cash available to the coalition government - depends on two factors absolutely obvious. First of all, by the possibility of this to settle with UN support, to stop the civil war and, therefore, also be certified as the only institution authorized to export Libyan oil. The second factor is the ability to counter the advance of the caliphate, starting from 200 km of coastline under his rule in the single region of Sirte, it is to attack distance of both fields in the desert of coastal oil infrastructure.
The Isis has not undermined the Libyan energy resources until February 2015, more than eight months after its first territorial consolidation in Libya in the region of Derna. Exactly one year ago it began a series of systematic attacks on the most remote oil fields of the Sirte basin. Terrorists have chased away the guards, terrorized or killed workers, and targeted the most critical equipment blasting the control rooms and the generators and causing the complete closure of at least 11 of these infrastructures.
In the summer of 2015, the caliphate has focused his efforts on transforming it into a stronghold of Sirte to be used in case of a retreat from other areas. The operation worked so well to take Sirte to be identified as the new command center of all the self-styled Islamic state. Only in October, they recommenced the attacks on Libyan oil wealth. With a car bomb was hit the largest Libyan oil terminal in Es Sider, although with content damage. Attacks on infrastructure have continued through the fall until the first week of 2016, terrorists carried out three attacks on the terminals of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf (which have a combined theoretical capacity of 550 thousand barrels a day even if they were closed in late 2014 because of the civil war). At no time of these actions, the jihadists have launched enough men on the ground to effectively capture infrastructure. Instead, they are limited to bomb terminals and deposits from afar. They even launched suicide car bomb followed by raiding parties well trained only in order to destroy key points and then withdraw the commandos immediately after. This time the attacks were effective: 18 guards killed, 12 injured, and most of the others have fled, five deposits in Es Sider and two at Ras Lanuf were burned sending smoke 850 thousand barrels of oil. Now only three of the nineteen deposits of Es Sider can be considered operational.
A careful observer can tell a lot from the analysis of these tactics: the Isis wants to destroy the Libyan oil wealth instead of profit as it has already demonstrated the ability to do in Syria and Iraq. The test consists in the fact that the Caliphate launched only small groups well trained on infrastructure, as Mabruk, Dhahra, Bhai, Al-Ghani and Sarir, but most of these (with the exception of the two main infrastructure of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf) were poorly protected by inexperienced and not very motivated guards. No attack has instead had the clear aim of winning, defend and exploit to their advantage one of these infrastructures. Sensible choice given the limited number of trained fighters that Isis had here in 2015 and that the Pentagon was estimated then in only two or three thousand terrorists, too few given the extent of the area and aims of conquest towards the East of the caliphate.
Libyan oil is mostly found in Eni offshore platforms (for the moment well defended thanks Sea Safe operation of the Italian Navy) and in the desert away from the sea and from urban centers located on the coast where Isis is stronger. The only way to transfer the oil in commercial volumes is with pipelines to the refineries on the coast, where it comes refined and used both for internal use and for export. In Libya there are only five refineries, all on the coast except Sarir in the southeast. Each of these are in the territory controlled by a different tribe, and, for the moment, hostile to the Caliphate and, with the exception of Sarir, is situated away from oilfields that feed making it impossible for even small terrorist power, control of an entire field-pipeline-refinery system.
In fact, crude oil has little commercial appeal if it is not brought to the refinery. It has already been described here farmyard refineries which were made in Syria. But the intelligence still seems to have discovered signs of this activity in Libya despite the apparent shortage of fuel in large parts of the territory. While Libya has a long history of smuggling of oil derivatives in the last year we have not been discovered incidents of smuggling of hydrocarbons to any degree of refining. Also, while in Syria the oil operations, are all in densely populated areas and close to each other, in Libya the distances between the key elements of the entire network are too high.
All this leads to a twofold conclusion. There is still time to consolidate a recognized form of government to end the civil war and may require UN intervention and support to hunt the terrorists before the Caliphate can profit from Libyan oil infrastructure.
But, at the same time, you can not underestimate the damage that can still cause the Isis now that it is again on the offensive nor can we ignore the fact that the ambitions of the caliphate were until now mainly limited by the scarcity of available jihadists. In recent months, however, have more than doubled the actual on Libyan territory and you can not overlook the attractiveness already demonstrated by the "franchise" of the Caliphate is to young Muslims around the world and towards each of the diverse tribes scattered in the infinite territory Libyan.
Dum Romae consulitur - While Rome Talks, as Lyvius wrote talking about the military situation in North Africa in 219 BC - It seems that the port infrastructure of Zueitina, south of Benghazi, was hit by terrorists who, for the first time, attacked by sea ...

ITALIAN 3RD WAR IN LIBYA?

Continue to multiply the elements that seem to indicate the beginning for a military operation countdown against IS in Libya.

Italian defense minister, Roberta Pinotti, spoke explicitly of plan for international military intervention in Libya involving Italian and allies in an interview with Corriere della Sera. In recent months, "we have worked more closely with Americans, British and French. We all agree that we must avoid uncoordinated actions. But there is a more concrete information gathering and drafting of possible plans of action based on foreseeable risks, the minister said.

Difficult to understand, however, what might be the timing of operation and its specific objectives, at least from Italian Government viewpoint.

On the one hand Pinotti said that "we cannot imagine a spring with a Libyan situation still stalled," but in same time stated that "I would not speak of acceleration, much less one-sided."

In recent days many rumors leaked about Washington, London and Paris acceleration which - also - have already special forces to train and advise local troops, particularly in Tobruk and forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar and perhaps militias.

The need to address IS rapid expansion, which is receiving reinforcements and volunteers from Sahel and North Africa, could become a priority for our allies also for need, reiterated several times in Rome, to allow new GNA to settle in Tripoli.

Pentagon plans. partly revealed by sources cited by The New York Times, it seems to involve air strikes against Sirte and the strongholds of the Islamic State combined with targeted raids of special forces and presence of military advisers to train the local militia.

A war without "boots on the ground", or with a limited presence of western land forces, which looks like the one in place for half a year in Syria and Iraq against IS proved so far very little incisive.

it was easier and faster a military action against IS a year ago, when the jihadi militias had not yet rooted in the territory and possessed limited forces.

International intervention could therefore be prolonged but mobilizing a limited number of vehicles and aircraft in order to remove the need for massive Italian bases as happened during the war against Gaddafi regime in 2011 which committed numerous military airports in the South used by NATO aircraft.

The operation against  IS in Libya may have its rear bases in Sigonella (already employed full-time by US) and Trapani (where the Italian Air Force has deployed a pair of Predator drones and fighter AMX 4) but the bulk forces and the same aircraft would probably be deployed in air bases available in Libya, especially in the area of Tobruk and Benghazi.

In recent days, Libyan press revealed that a delegation of military and intelligence Italian "high-level" met general Haftar in al-Marj.

We cannot exclude that visit purpose was also to define the redeployment in same area of  Italian transport, aircraft and troops

About type of intervention Defence Minister Pinotti has spoken of aid and training that Libyans have already indicated as preference for protection when GNA takes office in Tripoli.

These are the objectives that Italy has always declared its intention to pursue claiming the lead multinational intervention.

Besides the fact that GNA has not yet been made, Italian planes have not yet planned military action against IS.

A choice in line with the actions that Italian soldiers engaged in Iraq, where only four bombers Tornado carry out reconnaissance missions.

Italy would seem then called off Pentagon plan for IS attack anticipated by New York Times.

According to reliable sources, forces that Rome could mobilize quickly for its intervention in Libya consist of special forces, paratroopers of Folgore brigade (long kept in reserve for an emergency rapid deployment in Libya) and Navy riflemen brigade Saint Mark with a dozen of AMX fighter bombers, drones and transport planes flanked by helicopters.

Navy has long row in front of Libyan coast with half a dozen ships for Sea Safe operation, to protect ENI offshore platforms and intervene to defend national interests for Melita pipeline Greenstream terminal.

LIBYA SITUATION ANALYSIS BIS 1.2.2016

Politically overshadowed, Libya, in spite of its tumultuous irony with Arab Spring hardly marks advent into limelight.

With a government that barely exists, Washington is preparing to take “decisive military action” in Libya against the alarming growth of ISIS.

“Action in Libya is needed before Libya becomes IS sanctuary, before they become extremely hard to dislodge,” said US Defense Official.

A British RAF team and MI6 operatives flew to an airbase near the eastern Libyan city of Tobruk, which is under control by internationally recognized militia forces.

In March 2011, NATO launched attacks that led to the overthrow of the Libyan leader Gadaffi.

The majority of Libyans are demonstrably worse off today than they were under Gaddafi, notwithstanding his personality cult and authoritarian rule.

The slaughter is getting worse by the month and is engulfing the entire country.

There is an ongoing civil war between Tobruk HoR and its supporters, GNC in Tripoli and its supporters and various jihadists and tribal elements controlling parts of the country. While foreign pressure builds to tackle a threat from IS, Libya’s internationally recognized parliament, based in the east, has rejected a main article in UN accord as well as a proposed list of ministers.

Libya’s warring factions signed UN-backed peace deal in Morocco designed to establish a unity government that could lead a military push against IS.

Libya now has three governments and two parliaments, with the internationally recognized authorities based in the east and a militia-backed authority in the capital Tripoli.

However, earlier this week Libya’s internationally recognized parliament rejected the proposed new government.

Noted journalists rightly stated ‘Human rights organisations have had a much better record in Libya than the media since the start of the uprising in 2011. They discovered that there was no evidence for several highly publicised atrocities supposedly carried out by Gaddafi's forces that were used to fuel popular support for the air war in the US, Britain, France and elsewhere.’

Libya is imploding.

Its oil exports have fallen from 1.6 million barrels a day in 2011 to 335,000 barrels a day.

Militias hold 8,000 people in prisons, many of whom say they have been tortured.

Unfortunately, the militias are getting stronger not weaker.

Libya is a land of regional, tribal, ethnic warlords who are often simply well-armed racketeers exploiting their power and the absence of an adequate police force.

Nobody is safe.

Libya represents a classic case of the failure of Arab Spring. Even though pro-democracy outbursts took place in 2011, after the death of Gadaffi, Libya has descended into a political morass.

NATO intervention in Libya with the imposition of a ‘No Fly Zone’, camouflaging Western vested interests of implementing neo-conservative regime have failed in Libya as it did earlier in Iraq.

There are few hard-line questions though that makes Libya a difference.

Firstly, media blackout regarding the political condition in Libya is making it very difficult to meticulously decipher what is happening in the country. Whether the media blackout is deliberate or just because Libya is unsafe for journalists, still can be debated.

Secondly, media is flooded with news and narratives about the refugees from Syria but why no one talks about Libyan refugees. What happened to them, in addition to quanties in Tunisia and Algeria amidst the tribal and ethnic tension that catapulted the state into complete failure

Thirdly, there are numerous militants being recruited from Libya into IS. The main question here is how they are getting arms and financed.

There is hardly any concrete evidence regarding it.

The revolution has failed in Libya for sure, but what about the future, what about the solution?

The western countries are hardly interested in a non ambiguous plan of action along with UN.

So, will be mutely be spectators as Libya’s case worsens and it implodes?