The currency crisis is undermining Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj’s efforts to unite a country fractured by five years of conflict following the 2011 ouster of Muammar al-Qaddafi.
Photographer: Abdullah Doma/AFP via Getty Images
Libya’s fundamental challenge since the 2011 downfall of Muammar Qaddafi was supposed to have been overcome: competing seats of power acting on their own. But a United Nations-brokered 2015 peace accord created a unity government in name more than in reality, and today Libya is effectively partitioned. So now the UN is having another go, holding talks aimed at an improved agreement. The negotiations will be tortuous. Adding urgency to the search for a deal are a collapsing economy, a resurgence of Islamic State in the country, and the plight of tens of thousands of refugees stuck in Libya or awaiting perilous sea journeys to Europe.
1. What’s different this time?
In essence, the UN’s new plan aspires to be more inclusive. Unveiled by UN envoy to Libya Ghassan Salame in September, it seeks to amend the 2015 pact -- known as the Libyan Political Agreement -- by engaging not just Libya’s two rival legislatures but also armed factions and civil society groups that were marginalized before. A month-long round in Tunis ended Oct. 21 with no date set for the next. If the parties reach a broad agreement, a national conference would be convened to select candidates for reconfigured executive bodies. Salame aims to deliver, within a year, a schedule for a referendum on a new constitution that’s still being drafted, as well as legislative and presidential elections.
2. Why did the first agreement fail?
The deal was intended to merge two rival administrations -- one based in the capital Tripoli, the other to the east in Tobruk -- and rebuild state institutions. But it excluded powerful players, including some of the militias that led the uprising that toppled Qaddafi, and critics said it smacked of a solution imposed by the international community. One of its most contentious components was Article 8, which required all top officials to step down once the agreement came into force. And the pact failed to address the knotty issue of who would lead the national army. The eastern leadership, including influential military commander Khalifa Haftar, who now controls some of Libya’s biggest oil facilities, has refused to endorse it.
3. Did negotiators make progress in Tunis?
Not really. Saad Ben Shrada, a member of the Tripoli legislature, said delegates did agree on scaling down the Presidential Council -- the executive body that is supposed to fulfill the functions of the head of state and which is currently led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. It will go from nine members to three, one drawn from each of Libya’s main geographical regions. But there was no accord on how they would be selected, he said. Others described a lack of flexibility among key players. Another Tripoli legislator, Omar Bshah, summed up difficulties presented by the expanded participation: “When you satisfy old spoilers, new ones appear.”
4. Where does this leave the unity government?
Sarraj’s Government of National Accord, established in Tripoli in early 2016, has struggled to make much headway. Without armed forces under his direct control, the prime minister has had to rely on allied militias to achieve his few victories -- such as driving Islamic State from the coastal city of Sirte. The militant group has since made inroads elsewhere in Libya, presenting a major security risk for the country and its neighbors. Sarraj has also been widely blamed for a slumping economy. He will probably stay on as the search continues for a new framework, despite disagreements over whether his mandate remains valid.
5. Can Haftar seize power?
The former Qaddafi-era officer shows no signs of backing down. He gained greater political legitimacy after a Paris-brokered meeting with Sarraj in July, and has been working to portray himself as the only man capable of leading a united Libya. The opposition to him is splintered and unlikely to present a comparable challenger. Haftar’s backers have launched a petition in the east promoting him as the future president. However, to win an election, he’d have to win over major parts of Libya’s center and west, home to 70 percent of the population, many of whom despise him for his previous allegiance with the Qaddafi regime. It’s unlikely Haftar could rally the armed forces he’d need to seize control of the country.
6. What’s at stake?
Six years of fighting have exacted a heavy toll on Libya, which sits atop Africa’s largest proven reserves of crude oil, its main source of revenue. In August, the central bank estimated that shutdowns of oil production facilities over the past three years had cost the nation more than $160 billion. Gross domestic product will be around $13.9 billion in 2017, or about 15 percent of its 2012 levels, according to the central bank. Services such as health, education and electricity have been hit, and delays in paying state salaries have fueled anger. Libya’s breakdown has also resonated far beyond its borders, with the chaos enabling a booming smuggling network that trades in people, drugs and weapons.
The Reference Shelf
- The International Crisis Group’s analysis of the ongoing U.N.-backed efforts.
- Security Council Report chronology of key events in Libya.
- Testimony about Libya’s chaos by Carnegie Endowment for International Peace fellow Frederic Wehrey before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
- Bloomberg chart showing Libya oil output fluctuations.
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