Tuesday 18 August 2015

FRM ITALIAN MINISTRY FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRIDORS GOSSIPS - PART 2 - 18.8.2015

Race against time UN envoy, Bernardino Leon, to form a government of national unity able to pacify Libya. The plan of Leon provides an agreement between the current 24 Libyan factions on govt program, a series of amendments to the Constitution and the names of prime minister, deputy prime minister and two highest offices in the country. A significant shortage, however, are signatures of four out of 24 factions, Tripoli govt included, which controls almost 2/3 of Libya, although the official government recognized by the international community based in Tobruk. But above all, explains an official, UN envoy Leon plan "is actually not only a waste of time, but is also detrimental to the operation security of Libya".
Doas Leon manage to engage
Tripoli govt in the Agreement?
The plan to involve
Tripoli govt is utopia, so much so that its prime minister has not signed nor ever will sign an agreement for the formation of an executive of national unity with Tobruk. All this for known reason that it would mean the end to project of the great protectors of Tripoli & Misrata Islamist militias, namely Qatar and Turkey, which want to secure their hegemony over Libya.
With what consequences?
The consequence is that there will be no signatures. Also among the 20 factions which signed the document of Leon many represent only themselves. Totally lacking any initiative or support for Leon from armed militias, or of those who control the territory effectively.
It means that the plan of Leon is a waste of time?
Leon plan hides the hope that situation in Libya improves or at least not get worse. Actually it is not only a waste of time, but it is also harmful because the operation allows the State Islamic enlarge its territories and its influence, while the rest of the world is engaged in fruitless
and inconclusive discussions .
Cardinal Bagnasco has controversially asked: "What does UN for migrants?"?
Bagnasco is right. Have we ever seen a UN ship to collect migrants cross the Mediterranean? Or UN work in Libyan detention centers where refugees are held? Or centers along the coast where immigrants are stuck in warehouses managed by human traffickers?Why
did all that not happen? We never saw any of that because UN is absent from Libya, as it left a month ago. UN retain their offices in Egypt and Tunisia with same budget paying their officials to work far away from where they should be. So UN is not only substantially indifferent but also totally absent.
Meanwhile what is Italy doing?
 
In a first period the Italian govt has tried to support Cairo action, suggesting an alliance with Egypt to contain IS advance. Italian executives then washed their hands, favoring inaction promoted by those who suggested instead to support diplomatic action by Bernardino Leon. Diplomatic action which lasts through unremitting and inconclusive talks for more than 12 months.

Really was Leon work so ineffectual?

Yes. So far it has resulted in the signing of a document that for the moment it is completely ignored because it was not signed by all involved parties, particularly the government of Tripoli. Islamist militias are careful not to form a national coalition government together with the very institutions that have driven out of Tripoli, and who have fled to Tobruk.

What should Italy do?

Italy should pursue a direct action alongside Egypt within Libyan territory able to counter the advance of the Isis. Our government has the political support, while the military intervention is good that will deal with Egypt.

What is the situation on the ground?

The Libyan situation is substantial chaos, as no party is able to exert control beyond its territory. And above all the chaos it allows ISIS to advance and make bloody events such as those we have witnessed in recent days.

Which is IS territory map?
IS territory cannot be defined with a map. Beyond two towns controlled by IS, that is Derna and Sirte, there is IS presence in desert area. Its nodal centers are training camps, also present in Cyrenaica. Caliphate militiamen are absolutely at ease in the territory moving men, weapons and cash.

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