many readers might think that we
lost sight of the evolution of last three weeks diplomatic
games which aim(ed?) to allow Libya to have a National Unity govt which overcomes the divisions that now exist between the two governments for control of Libya.
But it is not so. We closely followed the negotiation rounds which have taken place in Morocco, Switzerland, Algeria and NY, followed with latest UN Bernardino Leon statement of a framework agreement.
Italian government, through its Foreign Minister, P. Gentiloni, said no more than five days ago that not only the agreement in Libya had been reached, but that as soon as it is signed, Italy was ready to help Libya (and new National Unity govt) to regain full control of its territory using even armed force of Italian Republic.We followed carefully Libyan situation and relevant official statements. The former always seemed much less optimistic and much more complex than reported by UN.
We must start from simple thought: Libyans majority has neither national interest nor national unity concepts.
In Libya there are dozens of important tribes and for most of them only objective is rewarding the power of tribe itself and not the country welfare as a whole.
It is naive to think that an agreement based solely on a division of power, such as that proposed by UN, can pacify Libya.
Each tribe is aware of its importance, natural resources or its geographical position therefore any tribe will not allow that a rival tribe benefits of its own resources.Libyan alliances are often with variable geometry and they are not so based by a long-term strategic vision but based on their assessments of "military weight" of this or that tribe.In Libya today the struggle to gain room for smaller tribes, increasing their "military weight", has never stopped and foreign sponsors working in Libya (i.e. Gulf countries, Egypt, Turkey and recently Iran) continue to fuel a flow of money and arms act to strengthen the tribes close to them and try to make them an ally in relevant areas.In our opinion this flow of funds and weapons will not stop by National Unity govt creation as many foreign powers operating in Libya would see negate their influences on this land rich with energy and with strategic geographic position.
In the case that Libyans think (it never happened except during Gaddafi iron fist) as one people, the agreement would be not only diplomat but real otherwise only an illusion of peace.It is necessary to interrupt the flow of weapons and money coming to Libya NOT for country development but only to fuel civil war.
To reach a diplomatic and real settlement in Libya, the tribes chieftains must understand and accept the stop of weapons and money flows.
Then only way is to carry out careful checks on every ship, plane, raft or boat approaching Libya, and at the same time stop the flow of money that tribes get by immigrants traffic.But no one in the West has the courage and the determination to implement a Libyan airspace and territorial waters "quarantine", mostly because of White House position, always reluctant to use the military instrument even when it is absolutely indispensable, except then despair after despair to UN General Assembly for geopolitical vacuum.The similar geopolitical vacuum observed in Persian or Arab Gulf, Western Pacific, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Syria (and soon Iraq) geopolitical vacuum has been filled by Russia, by China in the Pacific, by Taliban in Afghanistan followed soon by Islamic Caliphate silent in these days, and even more in the case of false agreement of National Unity Govt tomorrow, will emerge as catalyser for thousands of Libyans in search of well-being but not the power.
But unlike Syiria, in Libya, there is no army, legitimate or not, whch can oppose to DAESH terror and its feudal organization. Then who will be able to extinguish many Libyans power thirsty during country consolidation?
But it is not so. We closely followed the negotiation rounds which have taken place in Morocco, Switzerland, Algeria and NY, followed with latest UN Bernardino Leon statement of a framework agreement.
Italian government, through its Foreign Minister, P. Gentiloni, said no more than five days ago that not only the agreement in Libya had been reached, but that as soon as it is signed, Italy was ready to help Libya (and new National Unity govt) to regain full control of its territory using even armed force of Italian Republic.We followed carefully Libyan situation and relevant official statements. The former always seemed much less optimistic and much more complex than reported by UN.
We must start from simple thought: Libyans majority has neither national interest nor national unity concepts.
In Libya there are dozens of important tribes and for most of them only objective is rewarding the power of tribe itself and not the country welfare as a whole.
It is naive to think that an agreement based solely on a division of power, such as that proposed by UN, can pacify Libya.
Each tribe is aware of its importance, natural resources or its geographical position therefore any tribe will not allow that a rival tribe benefits of its own resources.Libyan alliances are often with variable geometry and they are not so based by a long-term strategic vision but based on their assessments of "military weight" of this or that tribe.In Libya today the struggle to gain room for smaller tribes, increasing their "military weight", has never stopped and foreign sponsors working in Libya (i.e. Gulf countries, Egypt, Turkey and recently Iran) continue to fuel a flow of money and arms act to strengthen the tribes close to them and try to make them an ally in relevant areas.In our opinion this flow of funds and weapons will not stop by National Unity govt creation as many foreign powers operating in Libya would see negate their influences on this land rich with energy and with strategic geographic position.
In the case that Libyans think (it never happened except during Gaddafi iron fist) as one people, the agreement would be not only diplomat but real otherwise only an illusion of peace.It is necessary to interrupt the flow of weapons and money coming to Libya NOT for country development but only to fuel civil war.
To reach a diplomatic and real settlement in Libya, the tribes chieftains must understand and accept the stop of weapons and money flows.
Then only way is to carry out careful checks on every ship, plane, raft or boat approaching Libya, and at the same time stop the flow of money that tribes get by immigrants traffic.But no one in the West has the courage and the determination to implement a Libyan airspace and territorial waters "quarantine", mostly because of White House position, always reluctant to use the military instrument even when it is absolutely indispensable, except then despair after despair to UN General Assembly for geopolitical vacuum.The similar geopolitical vacuum observed in Persian or Arab Gulf, Western Pacific, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Syria (and soon Iraq) geopolitical vacuum has been filled by Russia, by China in the Pacific, by Taliban in Afghanistan followed soon by Islamic Caliphate silent in these days, and even more in the case of false agreement of National Unity Govt tomorrow, will emerge as catalyser for thousands of Libyans in search of well-being but not the power.
But unlike Syiria, in Libya, there is no army, legitimate or not, whch can oppose to DAESH terror and its feudal organization. Then who will be able to extinguish many Libyans power thirsty during country consolidation?
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