Countdown to Sunday, the day in which Italy and US will launch in Rome a new diplomatic initiative to end the civil war in Libya. Ministry of Foreign Affairs much as the White House are increasingly concerned by the advance of the Islamic State and other jihadist groups in the North African country. However, the crisis in the former kingdom of Muammar Gaddafi does not depend only on blacks and drapes from the struggle between the two rival parliaments, Tripoli and Tobruk, but intertwined with the need to rethink the negotiating processes adopted so far and reach a delicate balance between regional powers, such as Egypt, with which Rome has been able to build over time a good relationship.
CONFERENCE IN ROME
To find a summary, Italian Foreign Minister, Paolo Gentiloni,and Secretary of State, John Kerry,have called for an international conference to promote GNU (Govt National Unity) agreement. Modeled on negotiations on Syria in Vienna, this conference, as confirmed by Foreign Ministry, will include foreign ministers of five permanent members of UN Security Council - China, France, Russia, UK and US - and their counterparts from regional countries with significant influence in Libya, such as Egypt, Turkey and UAE.
ISIS DANGER
To encourage dialogue there is Libya economic situation, close to collapse due to oil reduced production and its low price, but also ISIS growing and earning positions which may have chosen Libya as Caliphate base, if things in Syria and Iraq go the wrong way.
Isis, see the FinancialTimes, "took advantage of chaos to establish a stronghold in Sirte, which became even more valuable to Islamist group as a refuge for its fighters fleeing M.E. battlefields". To prove there is "a UN report presented to Security Council last month" according to which, at the time, black drapes in Libya, "would consist of 3 thousand fighters," many of whom "connected" Syrian-Iraqi scenario.
STRATEGY OF ITALY
Which is strategy of Italy? MattiaToaldo, European Council on Foreign Relations analyst in London, the Italian strategy "of political agreement with the regional powers in Rome conference, in support UN brokered agreement for Libya which is the right one, The analyst said that until now, wisely, Rome did not succumb "to European fashion to solve everything with a little of bombing.
Renzi words indicate a different line: force is at politics service, 1st the agreement then, if necessary, the strength of peace.While today, he points out, "France and Britain want an agreement whatever, even if result would be a very weak govt so that Libyan govt would need Western military support".
Just few days ago both govts have closed a deal, while still unclear, which excludes UN from negotiations,while Tobruk, through UAE, relies on Martin Kobler.
Nevertheless, the analyst points out, "it is clear that inside Libya does not pull through a spider hole insisting on consensus of the two parliaments which certainly do not want autosciogliersi. There are municipalities and other local forces who have already signed many local ceasefire and that could be the protagonists of the next national agreement.
A MODEL TO BE REVISED
Toaldo thesis does not differ from other analysts, like Karim Mezran, senior fellow of American think tank Atlantic Council. For most experts of Libya and M.E., the conference will be successful only if it can archive UN negotiations carried out so far since UN is completely discredited by Leon scandal and negotiation re-starts almost from scratch. Until now, explains Mezran, "not everyone felt included in the process to build a new country. For this a great moment when, with the support but not the leadership of Western powers, Libyans can reset two parliaments and meet to discuss and decide general principles and effective balance of interests for a new Libya. If the appointment in Italian capital will not depart from this evaluation, it will have little purpose.
RELATION WITH EGYPT
Egypt counts much in this process which, Toaldo believes, depends also on contributions of regional powers, such as Egypt (see Khalifa Hafter), without which it will be very difficult to reach agreement.
In Libya, the two main factions which contend the country are supported on one side by Turkey and Qatar (Tripoli) and on other side by UAE and Cairo (Tobruk).
Within this framework, Rome can be so decisive as mediator.
Well-informed about the world of Libya, Italy lives with Egypt a new era of geopolitical relations, economic and energy, made more solid by recent discovery of ENI undersea giant gas field Zohr, off Alexandria coast.
Relationships not only economic, but also political. PM Matteo Renzi and Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni, since their establishment 21 months ago, focused on strategic relationship with Cairo and President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to reinforce Italian presence and role in Mediterranean.
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