Monday, 18 January 2016

Italian intelligence in Libya - bad & good

The presence in Libya of our intelligence (although this was not then and not called that) was born under an unlucky star. In fact, we made a war in 1911, in the certainty that it would last a few months: the same, fatal illusion cultivated later in 1915, and, even more, in 1940.
For the conquest of what Gaetano Salvemini had called 'a box of sand' we thought, based precisely on the information gathered, that Arabs would raise against the Ottoman Empire and would be deployed in our favor.
It was very wrong and it ended with a so fierce Libyan resistance then brutally defeated by fascism in 1932.
After World War II, ENI Enrico Mattei policy sets the stage for Italian energy supremacy in Libya.
And ENI developped in fact a private intelligence service which, over the years, coordinated with the national one, as confirmed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi recent statements: "ENI is now a key piece of our energy policy, our foreign policy and our intelligence. "

In 1969, our intelligence, then called SID and Foreign Minister Aldo Moro was involved Gaddafi rise, who was trained by British military academy and overthrew the pro-British monarchy.
Although Italians were expelled, their properties confiscated and oil industry, controlled until then mainly by British, was nationalized and it became, instead, pre-eminent Italian position.
The Seventies, those years of plots, saw the scandal called M.Fo.Biali, tied to new Catholic party and  illegal trade of Libyan oil with scandals revealed by (killed) journalist Mino Pecorelli in his magazine 'OP'.
Even in this case, intelligence, more or less deviated, were heavily involved (likely his murder included). Our foreign policy, distinguished between pro-Israel and pro-Arab by so-called 'equidistance' in Italian First Republic, saw the views expressed above all by Aldo Moro and Giulio Andreotti, both with key roles in foreign policy and with natural and institutional references in top intelligence. With repercussions in Libya and in Middle East.
The same story of aircraft shot down in Ustica which, according to some interpretations, would cover just the unsuccessful attempt of killing the plane on which was supposed to travel Gaddafi, with our intelligence extensively involved in subsequent phases of Court case.

It can be seen in broad terms, that our intelligences presence in Libyan affairs was a tormented presence .

Coming to alleged Second Italian Republic, Silvio Berlusconi had significant relationships, including personal, with Gaddafi, culminated with Treaty of Friendship signatures in 2008, to end decades of 'misunderstandings'.
But center-left Romano Prodi and Massimo D'Alema policies did not neglect intelligence involvement. No coincidence that Libya invested heavily in key industries and banks in Italy, beginning with Fiat, already in 1976. All initiatives followed and monitored by our intelligence.

We come, then, to the 'Arab Spring', including also the 'Jasmine Revolution', which have greatly contributed to both terrible current imbalances and destabilization of whole Mediterranean area, in fact favoring other regions of the planet.
Intervention in Libya was promoted by France, losing positions in Algeria, and intended to win them back right where Italy could express a national industry with companies which promoted national interest, achieving also global prestige like ENI with predominant position in oil economy and more recently Unicredit bank had become a reference point, winning competition with European banking institutions, beginning with French Paribas.
In the background is the reborn Mediterranean centrality, which, with nearly 1,4 billion people, was to become the largest free trade area in the world.
It is known that PM Berlusconi was against military initiative, but in the end Italy was forced to grant the use of its bases for bombing.
A story that will be clearer with time, maybe in few years when we will have access to Italian and Western countries intelligences records.
During 2011 clashes in Libya, our intelligence cooperated with ENI to exfiltrate, i.e. to retract, 300 ENI technicians through Sudan.
Over the years, in fact, our intelligence became reliable for Libyan tribes, so that we did not suffer significant attacks to systems which refers to ENI.
Since then, however, Libya became metaphor for 'Arab revolutions' failure not only for struggles revival which splitted Libya in two parts but also for DAESH arrival which, finding difficulties in both in Syria and Iraq, transferred to Libya 2 or 3,000 followers so that Libya will become new Jihad frontier, especially for oil fields control.
In fact, DAESH needs significant financial resources. Those which, in fact, originate, as well as by Arabian Peninsula Emirs funds, by oil wells exploitation; oil which is then sold to companies which represent a shadow market around the world and in Italy as well.
In this framework matured last July kidnapping of four Italian technicians working for Bonatti as ENI contractor.
ENI staff as well as its contractors, follow precise travel and behavior procedures, prepared and verified by internal ENI intelligence in coordination with national intelligence.
These rules, however, were not followed by kidnapped technicians, this fact is very unclear, however, both Provisional Tobruk Government and Tripoli deny their involvement, even indirect.
It is unlikely they are in DAESH hands, since Western Libya area has less jihadist presence. Probably tribes and their katiba are liable since they enjoy a political representation and they hope to assert their ability to govern the territory and its administration of justice.
An reliable hypothesis is that, when these tribes will have their own representatives in Parliament, that will mark real rebirth of Libyan government, then situation for technicians could unlock, provided that in meantime they have not already been sold to other groups operating in ​​Sirte area.
In this case, DAESH media-video production company or Al Furqan (video) and Al Hayat (monthly 'Dabiq') would send on line videos with prisoners, for a variety of reasons related to DAESH massive understanding capacity of communication rules that fundamentalists know much better than many Westerners.
And yet people do not have sufficient information to understand the true extent of Italian initiative aimed at encouraging recent tests of peace between two opposing governments.
However, there may be an opportunity for Italy to repair damages caused by France and UK after the fall of Gaddafi.
Not surprisingly, Italians are the only ones who organize a corridor of entry and management of 'public affairs' in Libya.
Otherwise chaos will continue for all those who will put their feet on Libyan beaches. By this way, Italy has an excellent opportunity to manage migration, to end black economy for human trafficking, to regain control of (Italian) energy sources.
If we do not succeed, we will have to rethink the whole management of energy resources in Europe, depending predominantly by Emirs.
Ultimately, the role of our intelligence area is historically important, and not just because it was precisely Italy to 'invent' Libya (as nation since it was not a nation but a province of Ottoman Empire before 1934 see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Libya).
In Libya, more and more shaken by opposing tensions, both ENI and AISE (Agency Information and External Security) have traditionally good relations with tribal leaders.
Other foreign intelligences admit but they are not happy about that.
So we are actually important to promote the peace process, to fight DAESH infiltration and to protect our national interests also.
Reports about  Libyans/Italians personal relations are excellent.
Not by chance when in recent weeks kamikaze fundamentalists stormed seriously injured police trainees, they were transported to Italy.
We need, therefore, strategic actions and media to affirm our role in an international arena increasingly characterized by intelligence needs.

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