Saturday 30 January 2016

LIBYA SITUATION ANALYSIS 30.1.2016

The international community looks with apprehension at GNA fate.
Since agreement signatures on 17th December in Morocco between some members of the political and social life in Libya, are ongoing negotiations for the formation of an executive, with UN mediation.
On January 25 Tobruk Parliament voted against a list of 32 ministers submitted by the Presidential Council led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, and against an article of the agreement on military leadership (Khalifa Haftar) fate.
The situation on the ground remains fluid and, as explained by a recent report by the American Society of Security Soufan Group,due to uncertainty, political vacuum, collapse of political power, economic and social factors, militias, which altogether create fertile ground for the strengthening of extremist groups like IS and al-Qaeda.
Tobruk Parliament gave to Presidential Council ten days - from January 25 - to present a new list of ministers.
The fragmentation of Libya in political movements and military groups with different interests and conflicting therefore becomes an issue for nearby Europe and for international community.
We offer a brief profile of major players on the field. Their movements have an effect on stability of neighboring countries.
Presidential Council
Morocco Agreement 17.12.2015 created Presidential Council made up of nine members including PM Fayez al-Sarraj.
For security and for militias activities, hostile to international agreement, politicians who compose Presidential Council sit in a hotel in Tunis for a month.
From there it was announced on January 19 a list of 32 ministers, whose names are unknown to most of the international community and also to many Libyans. Tobruk Parliament has however rejected the proposal on January 25 and asked for a list leaner, to be submitted within ten days before the vote.
Tobruk House of Representatives (HoR)
is recognized internationally Parliament. Its HQ is in Tobruk, a few kilometers from Egypt border as in August 2014, its deputies and government were forced to leave the capital by Dawn Libyan militias considered Islamist. HoR President, Agila Saleh does not openly support international agreement. From his rise to politics in 2014, he was always considered the political arm of General Khalifa Haftar.
Khalifa Haftar
Former army general of Muammar Gaddafi, he is perhaps the most controversial official figureat this time in Libya and head of what it was Libyan national army, opposed the international agreement.
Supported by Egypt andUAE, he was presented to international community as a anti-Islamists military force.
In recent weeks, the appointment of Defense of Mahdi al-Barghathi, only not officially considered close to Haftar, and allegations of corruption came on live TV by a former spokesman weakened his figure. At same time,HoR 'no' to the new government and to a particular article of the Moroccan - which undermines the ability of the general to remain the head of the army - tell the east still strong support and above all a fight power around the military leadership and the future role of Haftar.
General National Congress (GNC) Tripoli
also rival government to internationally recognized HoR which sits in Tobruk. It is described as "Islamist" for the presence within it of various religious political groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood. It has a stronghold Tripoli, the city controlled by an alliance of militias, Dawn Libya, in support of local institutions.
An important part of these armed groups is from Misrata. President of GNC, Nouri Abusahman, is contrary to the international agreement. This does not mean - it applies also to HoR in Tobruk - that entire HoR would be against Morocco agreement, limited to individual members of the two parliaments and rival militias.
Misrata
The militias of Misrata - entered into an alliance known as the Libyan Shield - represent a predominant force in Libyan Dawn. Although they are often categorized as "Islamist" for their links with religious groups and movements, not all of these realities are to be considered as such. Since summer 2015, also has important political and military components of the city have begun to approach the idea of ​​a political compromise with the East and, away from the prevailing positions in the institutions of Tripoli, many politicians and commanders signed an agreement December. Important figure in the presidential council of Misrata and instrumental in this change of direction is Ahmed Maiteeq, prominent businessman elite commercial town.
Zintan
Small and dusty town in the western mountains, on the border with Tunisia, its militias like those of Misrata have taken center stage in 2011 for the conquest of the capital Tripoli. They are military forces that are opposed to the alliance Alba Libya and support the institutions of the East.
Jadhran and Guards Petroleum
The self-appointed leaders "federalist" Ibrahim al-Jadhran has its stronghold west of Benghazi, in the town of Ajdabiya and the oil hub of Ras Lanuf, for months in 2011 the front in the war between rebels and regime forces. Jadhran and its so-called "oil guards" get their turns in Libya, drawing power - and money - by the role you are cut out in defense of oil installations in the area. They are hostile to both the general Haftar both Islamist forces. In recent months, they have changed their position against the militias of Misrata who first fought, as they would have under way.
Derna
This eastern Libyan city is considered for long time bastion of Islamist extremist groups in Libya. In 2014 it was formed by Mujahideen Shura Majlis which includes Abu Slim Martyrs Brigades (named after infamous prison in Tripoli where Gaddafi locked up political opponents). Inside there are Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) - veterans of Afghanistan war - with links to al-Qaeda. Main Majlis objective is anti-Islamist forces of General Haftar. In June 2015, however, fierce fighting between factions have led to removal of IS elements from Derna, proving the existence of rivalries and fractures in the Islamist Libyan front.
IS
It is a presence in expansion. Libyans call DAESH (Arab acronym for ISIS). Its numbers in this regard are different and impossible to verify independently. Wall Street Journal in November last year wrote 2,000 IS fighters - including Libyans and foreigners coming from other fronti - recently increased to 5,000. The stronghold is the Libyan coastal town of Sirte, even if the jihadist movement has a presence in Benghazi and around the city of Derna. It is no coincidence that IS leader Abu Khaled al-Anbari was killed Nov. 13 in a US raid in that area.
Ansar al-Sharia
is the group behind 11 September 2012 attack to US consulate wich killed two Americans, including Ambassador Christopher Stevens. This movement is close to al-Qaeda. In addition to its presence in Benghazi, it is also active in Derna, where its local leader Sufian Ben Qumu was former Guantanamo detainee.

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