ARAB SPRING?

It was on 17 December 2010 that Tareq Bouazizi, a 27-year-old street vendor of fruits barely making a living to support his family in the small town of Sidi Bouzid in Tunisia, attempted suicide by setting fire to himself. The primary provocation was that he was harassed and insulted by petty local officials. He died on 4 January 2011. That act of protest started a chain of cause and effect initially known as the Arab Spring, but more correctly can be called an Arab Tsunami, which swept off power autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen, all within thirteen months. Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia was in power for 23 years; Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, 30 years; Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, 42 years; and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, 34 years. When each dictator fell, there was hope that the country might move towards democracy even if the route might prove to be long and difficult.

That hope has proved to be a mirage, except in Tunisia.

Let us seek an explanation for what happened and what did not happen. In Tunisia, the aspirations for democracy prevailed for two reasons.
One, there was no ‘Deep State’ that wanted to grab power and prevent the emergence of democracy. Two, the Islamist Ennahda Party under the wise leadership of its founder Rashid Ghannushi played a responsible role after emerging as the winner in the first post-Ben Ali election. The recent award of the Nobel Peace prize to the civil society quartet in Tunisia is an appropriate recognition of its political maturity and determination to pursue democracy.

Coming to Egypt, Mubarak abdicated on 14 February 2011 for two compelling reasons. One, the popular revolt against him was widespread and there was no way of putting it down unless the Army stood by the President and started killing hundreds. Even that might not have worked. The second reason was even more important. The Army ‘invited’ Mubarak to leave, primarily because it did not want Mubarak’s son Gamal to succeed him. Since 1952, Egypt has been ruled by men in uniform and the Army, heading the Egyptian Deep State, was not going to accept a civilian President. In short, the 25 January Revolution of 2011 in Egypt was only half-a-revolution. The people and the Army wanted Mubarak out, but for different reasons.

The Muslim Brotherhood won the general election and the Presidential election. But, the Army held on to the levers of power. President Morsi tried hard, but rather clumsily, to recover power, and rapidly alienated a large section of the population. The Army saw the opportunity, skilfully encouraged an anti-Morsi agitation and ‘kidnapped’ President Morsi on July 3, 2013 and toppled him, effectively reversing the 2011 revolution. Field Marshal El Sisi, elected President in June 2014, still enjoys popular support though he has hardly taken Egypt towards democracy. Egyptians do seem to prefer military-administered stability to democratic chaos.

In Libya, without the NATO military intervention, Gaddafi might not have fallen, or fallen when he fell (August 2011). With Gaddafi’s fall and his killing, Libya descended into chaos, mainly because he had destroyed all political institutions, and external powers coveting the oil wealth of the country added fuel to the fire of civil wars already raging. There are two Parliaments and two Governments in Libya and any number of armed groups. UN has been arranging talks between the two governments, but it is too soon to say what is going to happen. NATO intervention was a big error of judgment and the people of Libya and the region are paying a high price for it.
It seems that the Western political leadership has recognised the error.

In Yemen, Saleh tried hard to cling on to power, but finally and reluctantly, left office in February 2012. His deputy, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, was elected President and for a while Yemen moved towards democracy by adopting a new constitution. But Saleh was watching and sulking. The Houthis, a Shia group, were dissatisfied with the constitution and with Saleh’s support they started an armed revolt in 2015. President Hadi fled to Saudi Arabia. Riyadh decided to intervene militarily in Yemen with support from the rest of the GCC (except Oman) and the war is on though some UN-sponsored talks have taken place. The Saudis have accused Iran of instigating and supporting the Houthis, though without any convincing evidence. The two primary reasons for Yemen’s lack of progress towards democracy are the persisting hold of Saleh on the army and the higher bureaucracy as well as the failure of the political system to address the grievances of the Houthis in good time. Yemen remains de facto divided.

It is in Syria that the Arab Tsunami has done maximum damage. The death toll has exceeded 250,000 and almost half of the 22 million population is displaced. When protests occurred in early 2011, the Syrian government reacted with unnecessary violence. As we all know, violence provokes counter-violence, and soon external powers added fuel to the fire by extending support to President Basher al Assad on the one hand and to his numerous opponents on the other. Assad’s opponents are far from united and they seem to agree only in seeking the president’s fall. But for the military support of Iran, its ally the Hezbollah, and Russia, Assad might have fallen. But he still has support from the people who do not see any alternative to him.
The West made a serious error in insisting on his exit from power.
Syria is de facto divided into many parts. The Syrian government’s writ runs over only one-third of the territory, though that is the more populated part of the country. The Kurds are virtually running their own territory. The Islamic State (IS) holds territory in Syria and Iraq, virtually abolishing the 1916 Sykes-Picot line. There are other fiefdoms too in Syria. Except for the Islamic State, the various rebels in Syria are supported by the US and its Western allies as well as by Saudi Arabia and its allies including Qatar and Turkey.

A number of conferences in Geneva, Vienna, New York, Moscow, Cairo, Riyadh and elsewhere have taken place, but so far to no avail. Given the seriousness of purpose on the part of the external powers, the political process can succeed.

The emergence of  Islamic State based on state violence at its extreme has caused much distress in the international community.
West and the rest of the world was shocked when the IS carried out an attack in Paris killing 130 on 13 November 2015. Earlier, it had placed a bomb in a Russian jet carrying tourists returning to Russia from Egypt, killing 224 people when the jet crashed in the Sinai. The threat of terrorist attacks from IS is serious.
However, it should be pointed out that IS would not have been as powerful as it is but for President Basher al Assad and President Obama. As IS was emerging, Assad did not try to put it down and did let it grow as he wanted to tell the West that his fall would result in the taking over of the country by violent extremists.
Obama watched the growth of IS and decided to do nothing to stop its growth on the flawed assumption that at some point of time it can be used as a ‘strategic asset’ against Assad. The US did nothing to prevent the fall of Mosul to the Islamic State. When the helpless Yazidis and Christians were killed and raped, US watched doing nothing.
It is only when IS fighters appeared to threaten Erbil, Kurdistan capital, where US has major strategic interests including oil, that US started bombing IS fighters. The bombing started on 9 August 2014. Eleven days later, James Wright Foley, a US citizen, was beheaded by the Islamic State. He was the first US citizen to be beheaded.
Until West stops insisting on Assad’s exit from power, there is no basis for cooperation between it on the one hand and Russia and Iran on the other for seeking a ceasefire and a political resolution to the Syrian situation.
Western position is shifting, but it is yet to realise that it has no power to unseat Assad. A broad based coalition against the IS is being attempted, but it is too soon to say how effective it will be.
What is IS future? The loss of Ramada (29 December, 2015), which it had since May 2015, to Iraqi government forces is a serious setback to IS. It was the combination of air attacks by US and action by Iraqi ground troops that defeated IS in Ramada.
The question is whether this formula can be replicated with a larger ground force in order to administer a decisive IS military defeat, say, in Mosul.
When Arab Spring dawned in Tunisia, GCC responded by using its money power to launch welfare schemes costing billions of dollars It worked everywhere except in Bahrain. Finally, Saudi Arabia sent in troops to put down the protests when the regime in Bahrain appeared to be in danger of falling. The protests in Bahrain have lost their momentum for the present.

Looking for an epitaph for the Arab Spring, Shakespeare’s lines come to mind:
O, how this spring of love resembleth
The uncertain glory of an April day;
Which now shows all the beauty of the sun,
And by and by a cloud takes all away.
That dark cloud is strong, but the sun is shining in Tunisia. How soon will the sun dispel the clouds once again? It seems difficult to be hopeful for the moment.

LIBYAN TREASURY & CENTRAL BANK LIBYA

Among the many knots that Libya must dissolve the political agreement is the Libyan Central Bank. Ie the two central banks, since in January 2014, the militias of General Khalifa Haftar (Government of Tobruk internationally recognized) have seized the branch of Benghazi the Libyan Central Bank, whose headquarters is in Tripoli. "With $ 100 billion in" headline Business Insider (22/1/2015). While according to the NewYorkTimes, quoted, $ 100 billion was what remained to the Central Bank as a whole.
Not only. Tobruk government  dismissed the current governor of the Central Bank in Tripoli, the main office, Sadiq al-Kabir and had appointed one of his confidence, Ali Salim al-Hibri. But Kabir continued undaunted to work at its headquarters in Tripoli. That among other things controls the oil revenues are vital to the country- told Reuters in July.

The choice (policy) of International Monetary Fund. IMF decided to recognize Hibri as its sole interlocutor, informed Reuters. He explained how this move complicasse very things. The Bank is based in Tripoli has tried to stay out of conflicts. And both the IMF and foreign countries until now dealt with both bankers, trying to create a common budget of the two governments (who have to pay salaries of the militias, public salaries, medicines and much more).
"The IMF has broken an agreement arrived at by the two governments for a joint budget," remarked Matthias Toaldo of the Council of Foreign Relations Europe. Adding that the IMF is unlikely to retrace his steps.
Moreover Hibri, the banker appointed by Tobruk, has indeed set a new headquarters in Benghazi but failed to convince customers of the oil to pay its bills through as evidence of ownership of oil and gas assets are located in Tripoli. Making it even more difficult to sell oil - with the draw of the rest has almost completely stopped. Although Libya the largest oil reserves in Africa (still Reuters).
Also according to the NYT the central bank in Tripoli was one of the few institutions still operating in the country, and Kabir had traveled abroad for foreign leaders ensure the integrity of the Libyan state in crisis.

What is certain is that external institutions such as the IMF enter the political game, as they did, and probably are going to do yet, the foreign mega-banks, primarily Anglo-Saxon as we will see have already played a role.

 The loot in Central Bank of Benghazi.
"The general Haftar want the government to know that Tripoli can control most of the cash and gold reserves remained" writes BI. En passant that qualifies as 'deserter' (renegade) what is not exactly a good character, but it is close to the US where he lived long after fleeing from Libya in its time, and is the strong man in the Government of Tobruk.

 In mid-2014, the central bank still had $ 113 billion of foreign exchange reserves, reported Al-Ayat, a leading pan-Arab newspaper, based in Lebanon. Far less than the $ 321 billion it held before the riots of 2011, but still enough to pay salaries and ensure the functioning of the oil infrastructure - added BI.

 $ 113 billion in foreign currency strengthened to 116 tons of gold, to heed to a post on the site independent Middle East Al-Monitor (July 2014). It was noted that the foreign reserves amounted to just $ 321 billion before the revolution of 2011 - when gold Gaddafi was assessed by the World Gold Council in 143 tons (150 tonnes, according to others). With the revolution were immediately withdrawn from bank deposits $ 20 billion, forcing the Central Bank to sell 5 tons of gold, and then to dispose of $ 19 billion of foreign reserves, he explained, but stressed the assurances of the Central Bank: a collapse in Libya It is in sight, at least for another 5 years. It should be added for precision that the Bank had two more Libyan filali, in Sirte and Sabha in the south, but these are no longer spoken. We do not know what was inside.

 The 'rebels' had just given birth to their Central Bank in Benghazi. A move suspected by its immediacy, perhaps 'controlled' (see The New American 03/30/20 11 adopted by Global Research).

 That a substantial part of the foreign reserves and gold Gaddafi were in the branch of Benghazi told (6/6/2011) the deputy head of the Central Bank appointed by the 'rebels', Abdalgader Albagrmi (here). Vivid description of the groove.

 "There were two underground vaults encased in double walls and protected by a heavy security door to open which served three keys. Two were in Benghazi while the third was in Tripoli, still under the control of Gaddafi. It took three days to be able to penetrate inside. In the first room they found cash in dinars and foreign currency. Albagrmi not authorized to disclose the amount, merely says 'between 500 million and 1 billion dinars', as the foreign currency 'was not very'.

In the second room there was a big pile of gold bars that some have estimated at $ 1 billion. "

Albagrmi minimized? Most likely yes.

 A sudden move that already in those months of 2011 appeared to some suspect, that of the 'rebels', who then apparently do not even know who they were. The revolt broke out in Benghazi on February 15, 2011. Already on February 27 was born the TNC - Transitional National Council, a self-proclaimed provisional government in Benghazi which bills itself as' the sole representative of the people libico'e in March the international community is quick to recognize - to September or will even the UN. Well, as early as March, the TNC creates its Central Bank and the new Libyan Oil Company, also in Benghazi.

  "Never heard of a central bank created in a few weeks by a popular uprising," notes an economic analyst in the post of The New American. "It suggests that those rebels were more than a band of insurgents and that there were influences sophisticated".

Another blog to which we refer is sarcastic: "When the conflict ends those rebels can become consultants." The blog cited advances the suspicion of external involvement. "It seems that someone believed very important to control the banks and the supply of money even before a real government was formed."

 Doubts expressed even the mainstream media such as CNBC. "It 'the first time a revolutionary group is concerned to create a central bank and is still fighting to take power. An indication of how extraordinarily powerful central banks have become today. "

 The Central Bank and the national plan for ILO GOLD was the cause before the NATO to remove Gaddafi?
  "Some observers believe that the issue of the Central Bank was indeed the motivation behind the international interests against the Libyan regime," notes the post of New American citing another piece that has been around a lot on the web, according to which "global financiers and market manipulators could not tolerate the independence of monetary Libyan "under the Raiss.La Central Bank was in fact public, state.

"The Libyan government creates its own money through its Central Bank, the Libyan dinar pegged to the value of gold. The major problem of the globalist banking cartels is that to do business with Libya have to go through the Central Bank and the national currency, over which they have absolutely no domain and no ability to put pressure. Obama does not mention it, nor Sarkozy and Cameron, but on top of the globalist agenda is certainly a willingness to absorb Libya on the list of nations complacent ". Maybe replacing the dinar, however, hooking it to the dollar: this will be the way forward in the end, it was suggested.

 OIL FOR GOLD. Especially since Gaddafi was planning to sell oil in exchange for Libyan dinars attached to gold rather than for dollars as it had done until then. Oil for gold, in fact, the name of the plan. A move that could infect other countries, and threaten very closely the supremacy of the dollar based on their petrodollars. "Remember Saddam Hussein? In 2000 he wanted to do something similar, selling oil in Euros, abandoning the dollar. Its end is known. "

 So another blog. A popular theory, especially in non-Western media, remarked a subsequent post NewAmerican (30/11/2011), much of the previous analytical and full of quotations. Here are a few.

"Sarkozy came to declare that Libya was a" threat to the 'financial security of the world. "

 "In 2009, as head of the African Union, Gaddafi had proposed that the continent crippled economically adopt the dinar Dinar aureus.

 "His plan would strengthen the entire African continent in the eyes of economists - not to mention investors. But it would be devastating to the US economy, the US dollar and the elite system.

 Not just the money. Even projects African Raiss were stopped.
In that summer of 2011, Gaddafi was still alive and fighting, but the 'revolution' Libyan supported - some say prepared - NATO had now produced the freezing of foreign assets of the Libyan Sovereign Fund and new sanctions. Mohammed Siala, minister of cooperation, and director of the Libyan sovereign fund, released an interesting interview. He had written in his time Underblog.

 The intervention in Libya, told Siala, targeted or otherwise has the effect of blocking not only infrastructure projects in Libya already awarded to European companies, as well as Russian and Chinese. But also to stop cooperation projects with Libya gheddafiana African countries, aimed at emancipating those economies. With the result, inter alia, of further depleting those populations and push them to pour in mass in Europe.

 The Libyans with Raiss had in fact launched large investments. In Libya. "The first was the 4000 Km of canal that carries water from the huge underground natural reservoir discovered years ago, at a rate equal to the waters of the Nile for 50 years, and supplies among other Benghazi and Tripoli. Some say that the exploitation of these acqueavrebbero eyeing the French, the first in the world in water.

   "There is a railroad crossing North Africa, with the exception of Libya. We want to complete the integration into the regional and push it further. The Chinese build the stretch Tunisia-Sirte. The Russians have the task of Sirte-Benghazi. There was a deal with Italy for the section Benghazi-Egypt, as well as for locomotives. We also started the construction of a transcontinental line north-south, with the stretch-Libya N'Djamena. Investments are of international interest and the G8 promised to help, but we have not seen anything come. " So Siala.

 And in Africa. The visionary Gaddafi wanted to develop the continent. A share of the Libyan sovereign fund is in shares of the continent's development, agriculture, trade, mining, etc. Siala told. For which this is the most critical aspect of the block.
"The continent is not able to export raw materials. We invest so that they are processed and marketed in Africa, by Africans. It is about creating jobs and keeping the surplus in Africa. On the one hand the Europeans encourage us, because it dries up the flow of migrants, on the other opposing it should abandon colonial exploitation ".

An Africa 'gheddafiana' open to Russian and Chinese, as well as the Europeans, certainly could not please the West and particularly the US, which, although in 2004 they promoted an opening against Libya, Africa had actually other plans. For Raiss was a rude awakening.

 The affairs of the West with Libya and disappointments given to Gaddafi.
"Doing business with Libya was legal for American companies since 2004, after Gaddafi had renounced terrorism and its nuclear aspirations and Bush had canceled the sanctions." Banks, oil and construction companies they were thrown headlong.

So New York Times in an investigation of 2011. Who described how the creation of the Libyan Investment had gassed Western banks. Attracted by the opportunity to get their hands on the $ 40 billion sovereign fund. Then grew rapidly, becoming 64 billion last September, according to recent documents (Siala talking about $ 70 billion). Blair smiled for photos with Raiss, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the second and more British children, PhD LSE, was at home in London, a friend of Lord Mandelson and a Rothschild (it is no coincidence perhaps that to revive Saif was a few months ago in Foreign Affairs, the journal of the CFR, see Underblog).

The HSBC had become the senior Western banking partner of the Gaddafi regime, from whom he had received $ 1.4 billion. Goldman Sachs in September 2011 was still $ 45 million, JPMorgan Chase $ 173milioni. But even the French Societe Generale and other European banks had helped the regime to manage oil revenues. On the 22th floor of the tallest building in Tripoli, the seat of the Authority, there was a great coming and going.
But these investments have yielded little to the Libyans. Return to very low or zero, while commissions have remained high, documents the investigation of the NYT quoted.

Not to mention the rip suffered when - see The Wall Street Journal Online - the Authority for Investment entrusted to Goldman Sachs's $ 1.3 billion sovereign fund. The bank invested them in a basket of currencies and shares in six companies: three banks, the American Citigroup, the Italian Unicredit and Spain's Santander, the more the German company Allianz, the Electricité de France and the Italian Eni. It was the first half of 2008, with the crisis in the new capital were very throat. A year later, Lehman still fresh, Goldman Sachs announced to the Libyans that, due to the crisis, the investment had gone wrong, and the Libyan fund had shrunk to 25 million had lost 98% of its value.

Furious, perhaps with some justification, the Libyans swoop in London, end up not accept the proposals of Goldman, threaten lawsuits international certainly they would not benefit the reputation of the bank. In this case as to the losses suffered by investments made by several other companies - the American Permal, Palladyne the Dutch, the French Paribas, Britain's HSBC, Credit Suisse, etc. (See details here).

"As long as sanctions and military intervention have not solved the problem, by freezing the funds.
HSBC and other investment banks have already landed in Benghazi to create a new Central Bank of Libya that will allow them to manage the Libyan funds when they are thawed and the new oil export revenues, already taken, "he told Siala.
And then....

As you know things in Libya you are also complicated. Up to the two governments with their sponsors and to the agreements today, to be approved by the respective assemblies. Solving? We'll see.

What has gone on is the plan of Africom - US Central Command for Africa created by George W. Bush. Projects which also involve UK and especially France and go well beyond Libya to achieve but these Raiss's regime was an obstacle. See here Underblog February 2015 in the wake of the Guardian, see here where it says that US forces stationed in 35 countries already, and here a post far more analytical William Engdahl, American journalist against the specialist in geopolitics.

CONFERENCE LIBYA IN ROME 13.12.2015: WHAT WAS DECIDED

The conference on Libya which was held on December 13 in Rome ended with a declaration of "full support" from the international community to the process of reconciliation between the Libyan factions, which had been favored by the United Nations.

Immediate Ceasefire . Signed by ministers and envoys from 17 countries and four international organizations, the final communique calls on all factions to "accept an immediate ceasefire and the total across Libya" and to sign an agreement for a government of national unity, whose signature is expected in Skhirat in Morocco Wednesday, December 16.

NATIONAL UNITY GOVT: The plan mediated by UN Special Envoy, M. Kobler, provides for creation within 40 days of an executive of national unity, which would then be entitled to seek security guarantees and economic assistance. Libyan parties have until 1st February to create a presidential council, which would appoint the government and new CBL and NOC leaderships, accompanying the return of all the country's institutions in Tripoli, now headquarters of Islamist faction imprint supported by Qatar and Turkey. Internationally recognized government and parliament supported by Egypt and UAE as main sponsors, currently based in Tobruk.

The mandate of the parliament. The agreement also includes the one-year extension of the mandate of the parliament, with a further extension for a further year if necessary. As soon as the agreement will be signed will be authorized by a resolution of the United Nations Security Council.

States against the group Islamic State? The "clear message" of international conference in Rome is that "in the long term stabilization of Libya is crucial, also for fight against terrorism, "said Italian foreign minister Paolo Gentiloni, who wanted the initiative and organized with US support. The threat of the group Islamic State (IS), "established in Sirte, is certainly relevant, and it is a threat that international community will face in next two months," added the head of Italian diplomacy.

The unknowns. It could be in fact, just the increased presence of gangs affiliated at IS in coast around Sirte, the catalyst that will convince Libyan factions to overcome their differences as a function of the common jihadist enemy. On December 13 afternoon delegates participated in the Libyan closing bars of Rome meeting, but they represented only a part of the two rival parliaments and some local communities. It thus remains to be seen how it will be accepted and put into practice the agreement on the territory by the rest of political parties and militias.

LIBYA $ 130 billion PRIZE FOR ISIS/DAESH

If we measure only in economic terms the spoils in Libya for the Caliphate would be much greater than in Syria/Iraq: $ 130 billion immediately and three to four times as much if a hypothetical (but not too much ) Islamic state would return to export gas and black gold as in Gaddafi days. Estimates are that add up oil production with the reserves of the central bank and the treasury of the Libyan sovereign fund.

The win is so high that to convince Libyan factions which, so far, had never come to an agreement: only the fear that it might put the Isis hands now pushes the two rival govts, Tobruk and Tripoli, to sign an agreement on December 16 for a government of national unity, as announced UN envoy Martin Kobler. But Russia already raises the bar for solutions that feels ambiguous and illegal.

                           

It is also why tomorrow the Rome Conference on Libya with the Russians and the Americans is so full of expectations: here you can free up some of the most important energy resources in Africa, 38% of the continent's oil, 11% European consumption of fuel: and now to extract oil and gas is only Eni, launched by Managing Director De Scalzi North-South axis. Unlikely that the Western powers, but also the Gulf states and Egypt, leave Italy, already linked with the Greenstream control of this safe energy with its convenient gas station on the southern shores. More oil down listing and more gets tough the fight for competition and the flows destined to consuming countries.

Do not delude ourselves that diplomacy bestow gifts: to hold positions and recover the losses with the fall of Gaddafi in 2011 to 5 billion procurement and orders - Italy may have to put your foot down, even if only with a civilian mission and training of troops. Of course if they want the Libyans themselves and with absolute clarity of mandate.

The Western powers have so far considered the former colony as a polygon oil: in 2011, France, angering Moscow, began the raids against the Libyan dictator flying space Italian air without even making a phone call and our agreements with Gaddafi, signed six months earlier, in a few hours became waste paper. The military aid to the rebels in Benghazi had the heady scent of the black gold: President Nicolas Sarkozy, in order to compete with Italy, had promised to Gaddafi coveted nuclear power plants but Saddam had not even responded.

This is the Libyan perspective game that by the agreement between the two governments can quickly become hot. It is no coincidence that in Rome's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has got their hands on, "The Isis exaggerates the information on its expansion in Libya to maintain an image useful in recruiting jihadist ideology."

The reality is a bit 'different after the blitz to Isis Sabratha Tripoli in the west and the east in Cyrenaica advanced toward Ajdabiya. Russia officially did not take into account the raid "because there has been no request by the Libyan government." But the Russians know perfectly well that there would be no need for a UN resolution: a possible national unity government, if it really works, can now ask the intervention of EUNAVFOR, with headquarters in Rome, which aims hunting the smugglers but does not rule out military actions on the coast. Fleets of drones but also French and American fighters have long fly along the Via Balbi and the low coasts of Sirte, a swarm that portends something more than just routine missions.

Russians do not like all this, as do not like them because believe illegal raids in Syria conducted without the permission of Damascus government. Lavrov was clear: in Libya, Russians want a government approved by both two parliaments and not a document signed by a majority of the deputies of the two fronts. Not only that, while some factions link to an external intervention against the Caliphate, others are opposed because it can strengthen the jihadists and push young people towards extremism.

But even more irritating quarrels Libyans are the plots of the Arab and Muslim powers. These are "the incendiary fire" that say they want to stabilize the country and sponsor their favored factions: Egypt, although ally Italy, maneuver in Cyrenaica with General Khalifa Haftar, Qatar seduces with dollars sounding more radical Islamists Tripoli, the Emirates, among them also our valuable customers, have even purchased the former UN mediator Bernardino Leon to support Tobruk; not to mention Turkey, which Syria has sent back the Libyan jihadists to make the holy war in the house where the Sirte allied themselves with former Gadafi supporters, the same way as what happened with the agreement between the Caliphate and the official Iraqi Ba'athists. Lured into the trap Isis these apprentice sorcerers do not stop, sure always give in to the charms of their petrodollars.

إذا نقيس فقط من الناحية الاقتصادية الغنائم في ليبيا الخلافة ستكون أكبر بكثير مما كانت عليه في سوريا / العراق: 130 مليار $ فورا و3-4 أضعاف ما إذا كان دولة إسلامية افتراضية (ولكن ليس كثيرا) سيعود لتصدير الغاز والذهب الأسود كما في أيام القذافي. وتشير التقديرات إلى أن تضيف ما يصل إنتاج النفط مع احتياطيات البنك المركزي والخزينة من الصندوق السيادي الليبياتفاق:

الفوز مرتفع بحيث لإقناع الفصائل الليبية التي، حتى الآن، قد لا تأتي أبدا إلى  فقط الخوف من أن ذلك قد وضعت بين يدي إيزيس الآن يدفع اثنين من govts المتنافسة، طبرق وطرابلس، لتوقيع اتفاق في 16 ديسمبر كانون الاول لتشكيل حكومة وحدة وطنية، كمبعوث للامم المتحدة أعلن مارتن كوبلر. لكن روسيا تثير بالفعل شريط عن الحلول التي يشعر غامضة وغير قانونية.

                           

ولهذا السبب أيضا غدا مؤتمر روما بشأن ليبيا مع الروس والأمريكان هو المليء التوقعات: هنا يمكنك تحرير بعض موارد الطاقة الأكثر أهمية في أفريقيا، و 38٪ من النفط في القارة، و 11٪ الاستهلاك الأوروبي من الوقود : والآن لاستخراج النفط والغاز فقط إيني، الذي أطلقته إدارة محور مدير دي سكالزي بين الشمال والجنوب. من غير المحتمل أن القوى الغربية، ولكن أيضا دول الخليج ومصر، وترك إيطاليا، مرتبطة بالفعل مع سيطرة Greenstream من هذه الطاقة آمنة مع محطة للغاز مريحة على السواحل الجنوبية. المزيد من النفط أسفل القائمة والمزيد من يحصل صعبة الكفاح من أجل المنافسة والتدفقات المتجهة إلى الدول المستهلكةالهدايا:

لا نخدع أنفسنا بأن الدبلوماسية تضفي  لمناصب واسترداد الخسائر مع سقوط القذافي في 2٬011-5000000000 الشراء وأوامر - قد يكون إيطاليا لوضع قدمك إلى أسفل، حتى لو كان فقط مع بعثة مدنية وتدريب القوات. بالطبع اذا كانوا يريدون الليبيين أنفسهم وبكل وضوح منولايةالمضلع:

القوى الغربية قد نظرت حتى الآن المستعمرة السابقة كزيت  في عام 2011، مما أثار غضب موسكو، بدأت فرنسا الغارات ضد الدكتاتور الليبي تحلق المجال الجوي الإيطالي دون حتى إجراء مكالمة هاتفية واتفاقاتنا مع القذافي، وقعت قبل ستة أشهر، في غضون ساعات قليلة أصبحت نفايات الورق. وكانت المساعدات العسكرية للمتمردين في بنغازي رائحة المسكر في الذهب الأسود: الرئيس الفرنسي نيكولا ساركوزي، من أجل المنافسة مع إيطاليا، كان قد وعد القذافي مطمعا محطات الطاقة النووية ولكن صدام لم يكن حتى وردت

هذه هي لعبة منظور الليبية أن مع اتفاق بين الحكومتين يمكن أن تصبح بسرعة الساخنة. وليس من قبيل المصادفة أن وزير الخارجية في روما حصلت سيرجي لافروف أيديهم على "إيزيس يبالغ معلومات عن توسعها في ليبيا للحفاظ على صورة مفيدة في تجنيد الفكر الجهادي."

والحقيقة هي قليلا 'مختلفة بعد مداهمات ل إيزيس صبراتة طرابلس في الغرب والشرق في برقة تقدمت باتجاه أجدابيا. روسيا رسميا لم تأخذ بعين الاعتبار غارة "لأنه لم يكن هناك أي طلب من الحكومة الليبية." لكن الروس يعرفون جيدا أنه لن يكون هناك حاجة لقرار الأمم المتحدة: احتمال تشكيل حكومة وحدة وطنية، اذا كان يعمل حقا، يمكن الآن أسأل تدخل EUNAVFOR، ومقرها في روما، والتي تهدف الصيد المهربين ولكن لا يحكم العمليات العسكرية خارج على الساحل. أساطيل من الطائرات بدون طيار ولكن أيضا المقاتلات الفرنسية والأمريكية لديها ذبابة طويلة على طول طريق بالبي والسواحل المنخفضة سرت، سرب أن ينذر شيئا أكثر من البعثات فقط الروتينية.

الروس لا يحبون كل هذا، كما لا تحب لهم بسبب اعتقاد غير قانونية أجرت مداهمات في سوريا دون الحصول على إذن من الحكومة السورية. وكان لافروف واضح: في ليبيا، وتريد الروس الحكومة التي وافقت عليها البرلمانين وليس وثيقة موقعة من غالبية النواب من الجبهتين. ليس ذلك فحسب، في حين تصل بعض الفصائل إلى التدخل الخارجي ضد الخلافة، والبعض الآخر يعارض لأنه يمكن تقوية الجهاديين ودفع الشباب نحو التطرف.

ولكن حتى المشاجرات أكثر غضب الليبيين هي قطع من القوى العربية والإسلامية. هذه هي "النار الحارقة" التي تقول انها تريد الاستقرار في البلاد ورعاية الفصائل المفضلة لديها: مصر، على الرغم من حليف إيطاليا، مناورة في برقة مع الجنرال خليفة حفتر، قطر يغوي مع دولار السبر أكثر راديكالية الإسلاميين طرابلس، والإمارات، من بينها كما عملائنا الكرام، وحتى شراء الوسيط السابق للامم المتحدة بيرناردينو ليون لدعم طبرق. ناهيك عن تركيا التي ارسلت سوريا يعود الجهاديين الليبيين لجعل الحرب المقدسة في المنزل حيث المتحالفة سرت أنفسهم مع Gadafi supporters السابق، وبنفس الطريقة كما حدث مع الاتفاق بين الخلافة والبعثيين العراقيين الرسمي. جذبه في فخ إيزيس هذه السحرة المبتدئ لا تتوقف، بالتأكيد تعطي دائما في لسحر من عائداتها النفطية.

translations from Italian text published today http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/mondo/2015-12-12/in-libia-bottino-miliardario-l-isis--100227.shtml?uuid=ACFC46rB

REAL ITALIAN PLAN FOR LIBYA SUMMIT 13.12.2015

Countdown to Sunday, the day in which Italy and US will launch in Rome a new diplomatic initiative to end the civil war in Libya. Ministry of Foreign Affairs much as the White House are increasingly concerned by the advance of the Islamic State and other jihadist groups in the North African country. However, the crisis in the former kingdom of Muammar Gaddafi does not depend only on blacks and drapes from the struggle between the two rival parliaments, Tripoli and Tobruk, but intertwined with the need to rethink the negotiating processes adopted so far and reach a delicate balance between regional powers, such as Egypt, with which Rome has been able to build over time a good relationship.

CONFERENCE IN ROME

To find a summary, Italian Foreign Minister, Paolo Gentiloni,and Secretary of State, John Kerry,have called for an international conference to promote GNU (Govt National Unity) agreement. Modeled on negotiations on Syria in Vienna, this conference, as confirmed by Foreign Ministry, will include foreign ministers of five permanent members of UN Security Council - China, France, Russia, UK and US - and their counterparts from regional countries with significant influence in Libya, such as Egypt, Turkey and UAE.

ISIS DANGER

To encourage dialogue there is Libya economic situation, close to collapse due to oil reduced production and its low price, but also ISIS growing and earning positions which may have chosen Libya as Caliphate base, if things in Syria and Iraq go the wrong way.

Isis, see the FinancialTimes, "took advantage of chaos to establish a stronghold in Sirte, which became even more valuable to Islamist group as a refuge for its fighters fleeing M.E. battlefields". To prove there is "a UN report presented to Security Council last month" according to which, at the time, black drapes in Libya, "would consist of 3 thousand fighters," many of whom "connected" Syrian-Iraqi scenario.

STRATEGY OF ITALY

Which is strategy of Italy? MattiaToaldo, European Council on Foreign Relations analyst in London,  the Italian strategy "of political agreement with the regional powers in Rome conference, in support UN brokered agreement for Libya which is the right one, The analyst said that until now, wisely, Rome did not succumb "to European fashion to solve everything with a little of bombing.

Renzi words indicate a different line: force is at politics service, 1st the agreement then, if necessary, the strength of peace.While today, he points out, "France and Britain want an agreement whatever, even if result would be a very weak govt so that Libyan govt would need Western military support".

Just few days ago both govts have closed a deal, while still unclear, which excludes UN from negotiations,while Tobruk, through UAE, relies on Martin Kobler.

Nevertheless, the analyst points out, "it is clear that inside Libya does not pull through a spider hole insisting on consensus of the two parliaments which certainly do not want autosciogliersi. There are municipalities and other local forces who have already signed many local ceasefire and that could be the protagonists of the next national agreement. 

A MODEL TO BE REVISED

Toaldo thesis does not differ from other analysts, like Karim Mezran, senior fellow of American think tank Atlantic Council. For most experts of Libya and M.E., the conference will be successful only if it can archive UN negotiations carried out so far since UN is completely discredited by Leon scandal and negotiation re-starts almost from scratch. Until now, explains Mezran, "not everyone felt included in the process to build a new country. For this a great moment when, with the support but not the leadership of Western powers, Libyans can reset two parliaments and meet to discuss and decide general principles and effective balance of interests for a new Libya. If the appointment in Italian capital will not depart from this evaluation, it will have little purpose.

RELATION WITH EGYPT

Egypt counts much in this process which, Toaldo believes, depends also on contributions of regional powers, such as Egypt (see Khalifa Hafter), without which it will be very difficult to reach agreement.

In Libya, the two main factions which contend the country are supported on one side by Turkey and Qatar (Tripoli) and on other side by UAE and Cairo (Tobruk).

Within this framework, Rome can be so decisive as mediator.

Well-informed about the world of Libya, Italy lives with Egypt a new era of geopolitical relations, economic and energy, made ​​more solid by recent discovery of ENI undersea giant gas field Zohr, off Alexandria coast.

Relationships not only economic, but also political. PM Matteo Renzi and Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni, since their establishment 21 months ago, focused on strategic relationship with Cairo and President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to reinforce Italian presence and role in Mediterranean.

END

Italian Foreign Ministry Mediterraneum vision 8.12.2015

The crisis in the Mediterranean, the fight against Isis, the stabilization of Libya.

On this folder Rome 'from Thursday' will be the crossroads of world diplomacy in three separate appointments in quick succession.

(1st)  "the Conference 'Rome Med Dialogues' which opens Thursday right after (2nd) "Italy's role as a natural crossroads of diplomatic initiatives on the Mediterranean’’ will further be confirmed (3rd) by summit on Libya which, based on Italy-USA joint proposal, will take place in Rome on December 13 with that of the small group of anti-Coalition Daesh expected again in Rome following week.

Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni intervention stresses that diplomacy can succeed where military operations alone are not enough.

Italian foreign minister said that "after the dramatic attacks in Paris (November 13 with 130 deaths), the discussion of the 'Rome Med Dialogues' start 'from the challenges more' urgent that we face: Daesh defeat which starts by political transition in Syria and creation of a government of national concord in Libya.

But - beyond the crisis - conferences and projects aim to launch a discussion on how to rebuild the foundations of a regional order.

As difficult as it may seem, in fact we must start right now to imagine - suggests Gentiloni - a 'Peace of Westphalia' (Treaty which in 1648 inaugurated a new international order, based on the recognition of States as such beyond various sovereigns with different faiths) for entire Mediterranean.

For a region whose geopolitical concept is widened, including new shipping lanes to Gulf of Aden and lands in Africa where  institutional fragility promotes human trafficking, for Gentiloni, in Italian vision, this embryo of new regional order should be based on three pillars:

1st pillar the need 'not to repeat past mistakes’. West already cultivated the  blitzkrieg illusion to suffer its consequences for years and years. Today against Daesh the military option is certainly necessary but not sufficient to defeat it permanently.

Recent years experience suggests that '’ regional powers task is to contribute for a sustainable peace in M.E..

US, European countries or Russia and tomorrow China cannot draw new boundaries and even to guarantee the region security.

2nd pillar - says the head of Italian diplomacy - the reactivation of regional dialogue. Without chasing utopias, the agreement reached on Iran's nuclear, oil prices and common challenge against Daesh, could open gradual path of confidence-building measures among the countries of the region. Significant progress in the work on Syria already started in Vienna.

3rd and last pillar of a new regional order must be built on the courage to go against the trend, developing a positive agenda for Mediterranean overall, without pessimism.

Besides the divisions, beyond the conflicts, there are opportunities.

For examples the effects of Iranian nuclear issue agreement on Tehran economy which, without penalties, could grow by 5 to 6% p.a. and Suez Canal doubling which allows great increase of Mediterranean cargo traffic with positive reflections for African development expected at 5.5% in 2017-2020 and 'New Silk Road' impact to/from China which ends in the Mediterranean".

Gentilomi attaches particular importance to the energy market outlook in the area through - for example - ENI gas discoveries in Egypt referring to offshore Zhor giant gas field, one of largest in the world, with reserves estimated at 850 billion c.m. of gas.

"The history of the Mediterranean - Gentiloni concludes - is an encounter among cultures and religions. And also the history of pluralism. Rome meetings can contribute to the challenge with new ideas to become an important annual eventfor r eflecting on the region.

What is at stake is not only an emergency, but the future of Northern Africa, Europe and Middle East. This is why the Mediterranean cannot be the site of West reluctance"

ISLAMIC STATE LESSONS TO ITALY AND WEST

The Islamic state war continues to be a long series of lessons not learned or deliberately ignored by the West.

After pretending to fight jihadists in Syria and Iraq for almost a year and half, the Coalition has achieved two results, both negative: 1. Caliphate strengthened and now has followers everywhere in Europe and 2. Moscow has had the opportunity to intervene in Syria acting as a reference power in the region.

In Libya, Italians are committing the same mistakes.

Pending an agreement between the various factions brokered by UN, we have tolerated for years that the Islamic State homesteading in Sirte gradually expanding area under its control by collecting local volunteers and militia African jihadist.

Now that reports signaling the arrival of two or three thousand African veterans of wars in Syria and Iraq, there are questions about what to do, probably because the influx of reinforcements leads to 7 thousand jihadist army men consistency.

It sufficient force to attack the oil fields in Gulf of Sirte between Ajdabiya and Brega. Numerous local sources, quoted by news site Alwasat, have in fact reported that the terrorists are "carrying heavy weapons and armored vehicles to the East," adding that "elements of the training patrol armed highways, are accompanied by Islamic police"

Resource control of country's energy is strategic for Caliphate because, just like in Iraq and Syria, it can subsidize its jihad and the Khalifat management established in Syria.

Meantime, Europe and the West continue to support the agreement among factions promoted by UN is now failed, as all understood except perhaps both the Italian Foreign Minister, Paolo Gentiloni and the new UN envoy.

German Martin Kobler in the coming days will present a roadmap to accelerate the political process and the signing of  'agreement’ provided for the formation of a national unity government.

Kobler said he was ready to accept that the agreement not signed by all without being aware that perhaps without general consensus of the various factions the Libyan agreement will not be worth anything.

Moreover, the Islamist government (backed by Turkey and Qatar) in Tripoli does not want to sign it because it is considered not impartial and it has good reason considered that Bernardino Leon, mediated unabashedly in favor of Tobruk government and he was publicly rewarded by UAE with an assignment in Abu Dhabi paid 600,000 euros per year. Then so much mud that little remains of UN prestige.

It is no coincidence that, slapping UNO, Tobruk and Tripoli (or at least part of their parliaments) governments seem to be willing to agree with draft other than UN one.

If Europe is sleeping, unable to realize a military response ISIS and fearful of suffering new attacks, Italy turns his head away almost not concerned with consolidation of Islamic State just 400 km from our shores.

An intervention in Libya "it is not on agenda as well as Italy will not plan military intervention in Syria without a political-diplomatic overall strategy," said Tuesday PM Matteo Renzi. The strategies are to be developed, however, and the time certainly was not short but Italy was short of necessary courage to launch a military operation now against Islamic State in Sirte whose presence is seen as a threat by both Islamist Tripoli and secular Tobruk governments. That would have paved the way for a peace agreement much more than Leon cunning and tricky actions as based on the need to wage war against common enemy.

Present situation has deteriorated and it will require much greater efforts to crush the jihadists in Libya especially if they succeed to complete alliance among Islamic State, Shura Council of the revolutionary movement and Al-Qaeda, Ansar al-Sharia active in Cyrenaica.

From the battlefields it is reported that Tobruk army forces against people supporting Jihad, lost only yesterday 30 soldiers in Benghazi including the Operation Dignity Commander Colonel Ali Al Thamen whom launched last year Operation Dignity against the jihadist forces.

Trust in Italy and Europe is so low that Libya's legitimate government (Tobruk), Abdullah al-Thani, has called for a military intervention of Russia against the Islamic State ensuring that his government is "ready to coordinate the steps at the highest level" as reported by the Russian news agency Sputnik.

The vacuum power left by both a reluctant America dedicated to destabilization and a Europe in disarray likely to be filled by Russians, now recognized as the only ones to do what needs to be done against the jihadists and invited by both Syrian and Libyan governments to help them to fight the terrorists.

To balance the role of Moscow in support of Tripoli government, is increasingly important the presence of Turkey and Qatar, this latter also very active in Saharan region since past years when money and weapons were flowing from Emirates.

They supported al-Qaeda which seized control of northern Mali. The latest confirmation of how well Qatar (whose troops in 2011 mingled the rebels to take Tripoli) reached a level of influence in Libya far greater than Italy or other European countries is demonstrated by the peace agreement signed (not only announced as in UN blog) between Tebu and Tuareg.

Tuareg factions which fought fiercely in southern Libya against Tebu (originally from Chad) had sided with Tobruk government widening the 'operational area of their four brigades to Tuareg territory and some oil fields (al-Fil has a production capacity of 200.000 barrels per day) in desert region of Fezzan, also crossed by arms traffickers and illegal immigrants Africans.

Beyond the troubled ethnic Libyans, important aspect is that the conflict between Tebu and Tuareg developed since Muammar Gaddafi death in October 2011, in an area that would be of significant strategic interest for Europe and Italy but leave that mediate this crisis is Qatar which earned a significant return of international image by organizing the signing of the agreement between Libyan factions in Doha.

At this rate, the hegemonic powers in Mediterranean will become soon Russia, Turkey and Arabic Gulf monarchies, which have obviously put "on the agenda" their interventions in Libyan crisis .

END

Europe & Libya: WHILE BOTH LIBYAN GOVERNMENTS & PARLIAMENTS QUARRE...

Europe & Libya: WHILE BOTH LIBYAN GOVERNMENTS & PARLIAMENTS QUARRE...: photo: Islamic State (Isis) fighters parade in Sirte, Libya in October 2015; the group is reportedly growing in strength as jihadists re...

WHILE BOTH LIBYAN GOVERNMENTS & PARLIAMENTS QUARREL . . . . .

photo: Islamic State (Isis) fighters parade in Sirte, Libya in October 2015; the group is reportedly growing in strength as jihadists relocate from Syria.

www.libyaherald.com/2015/12/05/libyan-oil-sector-disintegration-brings-new-dangers-crisis-group-warns/ and Jihadis in Libya are seizing control of greater chunks of the fractured nation’s territory and imposing a rule of terror. As another strategic city, Ajdabiya, comes under Isis attack, military planners across Europe are preparing the way for Nato forces to intervene

Libyans have become expert sky watchers. On many days, social media fills with pictures of the latest American drone or spy plane making low passes over Sirte, the local headquarters of Islamic State. There are grainy snaps of the squat, white Lockheed P-3 Orions, and hazier captures of dark drones, while discussion over a twin-engined aircraft that makes figure-of-eight passes could fill a chatroom. With the intensification of bombing of the terror group in Syria, Libya’s sky watchers think airstrikes are imminent.

Speculation about airstrikes heightened last week when the UN reported what intelligence agencies have been saying for months – that Libya has become Isis’s fallback position. More than 800 fighters sent from Libya to battle in Syria and Iraq have now made the journey the other way, as Isis expands its Libyan caliphate.

Last week France flew its first reconnaissance missions over Sirte, joining the drones and spy planes of the United States. This small town on Libya’s central coast was the birthplace of former dictator Muammar Gaddafi – and the scene of his brutal execution. During his tyrannical rule, Gaddafi turned what was a sleepy coastal village into a town of garish concrete, hoping to fulfill a megalomaniac dream to make it the capital of a United States of Africa.

Now the town’s giant concrete Ouagadougou conference centre - built by Emaco group Libya subsidiary - is bedecked with black flags. The grounds outside are bloody execution sites for the terrorists who have brought Raqqa-style horror to north Africa. Recent escapees tell of a litany of horrific acts, including crucifixions and townsfolk hanged from mechanical diggers and lampposts, some accused of being apostates, some of being spies.

Barbers are banned from shaving off beards and women are forced to wear dark robes, while zealots ensure that music is banned from radio stations. “People live for one thing, which is to get out,” said one resident, newly arrived in Tripoli, the capital far to the west.

Sirte’s airbase, the biggest in Libya, is being readied by Isis to take suicide planes, while 85 of the town’s children have been paraded as “suicide cubs”, ready to detonate themselves for the cause.

Jihadism has a long history in Libya. Members of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group staged an unsuccessful guerrilla rebellion against Gaddafi in the 1990s. That uprising was crushed, and its members fled to Afghanistan and Iraq. With the removal of Gaddafi in the bloody 2011 Arab Spring revolution, the jihadis came home.

The first sign of this was Ansar al-Sharia, or Partizans of Islam, which followed up attacks on British and French diplomats with the killing in September 2012 of US ambassador Chris Stevens in Benghazi.

Then came Isis, seizing its opportunity in the summer of last year when elections were followed by civil war after Libya Dawn, a coalition of Islamist and Misratan forces, seized Tripoli. The elected government fled to the eastern city of Tobruk and fighting has since raged across the country.

Taking advantage of the chaos, Isis quickly established a foothold in the eastern coastal town of Derna, spearheaded by 300 militants of the al-Battar Brigade, battle hardened in Syria.

But Sirte was the true prize, offering an airport, seaport and something Isis wanted more than anything else: oil. South of the town is the massive Sirte Basin, the centre of Libya’s oil industry. In a few months its units conquered the town and pushed south into the Sirte Basin, taking a 100-mile stretch of coastline. In January, it killed 22 Christians, 21 of them Egyptians, on the Sirte shore, triggering Egyptian airstrikes.

Many Ansar al-Sharia units defected to Isis, gifting it a base at Sabratha, 100 km east of Tunisia’s border.

Tunisia says Seifeddine Rezgui Yacoubi, the gunman who killed 38 tourists, 30 of them British, at Sousse, was trained at Sabratha, as were the gunmen who attacked tourists in the capital’s Bardo museum last March.

Isis in Libya has had reverses. In June, Derna youths, backed by a militia loyal to al-Qaida, rose up, pushing its units out of the town into the Green Mountain to the south. But a similar uprising in Sirte in August was brutally put down. After Isis regained control of the rebel district, survivors said, gunmen set fire to the local hospital, burning 22 patients alive. Last week, Isis launched its most audacious attack so far, striking at Ajdabiya, 120 km east of Sirte, and threatening Libya’s four key oil ports. “Another assassination on Ajdabiya tonight, IS expansion,” one desperate Libyan tweeted last Friday night. “Wake up Libyans!”

Fears are building among Libya’s neighbours. Tunisia, reeling from the slaughter last month of 12 presidential guards by a Libyan-trained bomber, has closed its border with Libya and on Friday banned Libyan planes from the capital, fearing suicide attacks.

In fact, alarm bells about Isis expansion in Libya have been ringing all year. In the summer, the European Union high representative, Federica Mogherini, warned: “In Libya, there is the perfect mix ready to explode and in case it explodes, it will explode just at the gates of Europe.”

In October, Wolfgang Pusztai, Austria’s former Libya defence attaché, told the British parliament’s foreign affairs committee: “The more Islamic State is put under pressure in the Middle East, the more active it will be in Libya.”

Loudest of all has been France’s defence minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, issuing periodic warnings that Libya has become the “hub” for Isis to supply terrorists and weapons to affiliated groups in Algeria and Mali and to Boko Haram in Nigeria.

Sources in Paris say Le Drian agreed to “go quiet” in the summer, as Europe put its faith in a UN mediation process, hoping that a newly united Libyan government could turn its guns on Isis. But those talks collapsed amid acrimony in October, the UN discredited and, even before the Paris attacks, talk in foreign capitals had turned to direct action.

Last week, the minister again sounded the alarm, telling a French magazine: “We see foreign jihadis arriving in the region of Sirte who, if our operations in Syria and Iraq succeed in reducing the territorial reach of Isis, could tomorrow be more numerous.”

The US has already struck. In June, two F-15s bombed what it said was an al-Qaida gathering at Ajdabiya. In November, the jets struck again, hitting Derna, with the Pentagon claiming to have killed a prominent Isis leader.

But pinpoint strikes have failed to slow the group’s expansion, and the possible loss of Ajdabiya will be a disaster for Libya, cutting off oil ports and the gas fields that generate electricity, a move that the London-based oil expert John Hamilton says would mean “game over” for the economy.

Officials from the American military’s African Command, Africom, based in Stuttgart, have been visiting the region and, should the political decision be made, western forces are already deployed in strength around Libya’s borders. Along with drones and spy planes, the US has bombers and Marine helicopter-borne units stationed in Spain and Italy. More US drones operate from two bases in Niger, guiding a 3,000-strong force of French paratroopers, Operation Barkhane, on the southern Libyan border against jihadi convoys passing out of the country.

RAF Tornados and Typhoons, newly arrived in Cyprus, are within strike range of Libya, as are jets on the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. And a dozen European warships are off the Libyan coast, currently tasked with an ineffective mission to intercept the country’s people smugglers.

But the military option comes with risks. Isis bases at Derna, Sirte and Sabratha would be obvious targets but, as in Syria, Isis units in Libya can melt into the civilian population. Hours after the US Derna strike last month, Sirte residents reported Isis gunmen forcing their way into civilian homes, calculating that US jets would not bomb them for fear of civilian casualties.

One crumb of comfort for western planners is that Isis has yet to become a mass movement in Libya. In what is a tribal-based society, the population is largely immune to calls to join a worldwide caliphate. Set against that are the continuing arrival of foreign volunteers from Tunisia, Sudan and Yemen.

As in Syria, only ground forces are likely to decisively crush Isis. Western diplomats, working out of Tunis, with Tripoli too dangerous, are continuing to try to persuade Libyans to unite against the terrorist threat. But the French jets and the US drones in the skies over Sirte are vivid proof that another narrative is taking shape.

from http://www.theguardian.com/international