Tuesday, 27 October 2015
Europe & Libya: Further analysis of UN and Libya
Europe & Libya: Further analysis of UN and Libya: Analyzing the current situation in Libya and strategy followed by UN, it seems unlikely that the negotiations, in form and content managed ...
Further analysis of UN and Libya
Analyzing the current situation in Libya and strategy followed by UN, it seems unlikely that the negotiations, in form and content managed by Leon, can produce a document which may be able to produce significant effects on the peace process.
In fact, political distance between Tripoli and Tobruk parliaments adds the need to incorporate the militias into the negotiation mechanism. Without supports of clans/khabilas with militias representatives and without the presence of local strongmen, both parties is any national unity government would be unrepresentated and lack any real power in territory.
In this sense, Lon attempt to summon representatives of municipalities for last round of talks was welcome, but not enough considering very poor number of participants compared to country extreme social diversity.
Therefore, development of any peace plan should take into account the demands of individual groups expression of social realities of the country. Without such a practical approach and taking into account the needs of the base, any attempt to help Libya stabilization and pacification are in danger of failure.
Moreover, we should not forget that, so far, UN proposed texts were clearly unbalanced in favor of Tobruk, with parliamentarians from Tripoli relegated to marginal role and excluded from any significant ministerial presence. Under these conditions, it is really difficult for Tripoli to accept any kind of negotiation or agreement. So, if UN really wants to reach a compromise, the text presented by negotiators should be partly rebalanced.
Of course, the re-opening for modifications might further expand its timing while it seems that Leon desire at all costs to close the negotiations before end of his term but it can lead to better results.
The strategy to involve as many stakeholders as possible in the negotiations and make them part of the future Libyan state structure is essential not only to increase government of national unity legitimacy, but also to have a para-military force able to to challenge both threats of Salafi and organized crime that operates trafficking.
Moreover, in view of a possible pacification/stabilization mission, any coalition of forces that will be called to work in Libya will also rely on support of local armed component capable of ensuring both local communities and local knowledge supports. The urgency of such measures and initiatives is also dictated by possible expansion of Bayda Caliphate with its model of Islamic state for Libya.
In fact, political distance between Tripoli and Tobruk parliaments adds the need to incorporate the militias into the negotiation mechanism. Without supports of clans/khabilas with militias representatives and without the presence of local strongmen, both parties is any national unity government would be unrepresentated and lack any real power in territory.
In this sense, Lon attempt to summon representatives of municipalities for last round of talks was welcome, but not enough considering very poor number of participants compared to country extreme social diversity.
Therefore, development of any peace plan should take into account the demands of individual groups expression of social realities of the country. Without such a practical approach and taking into account the needs of the base, any attempt to help Libya stabilization and pacification are in danger of failure.
Moreover, we should not forget that, so far, UN proposed texts were clearly unbalanced in favor of Tobruk, with parliamentarians from Tripoli relegated to marginal role and excluded from any significant ministerial presence. Under these conditions, it is really difficult for Tripoli to accept any kind of negotiation or agreement. So, if UN really wants to reach a compromise, the text presented by negotiators should be partly rebalanced.
Of course, the re-opening for modifications might further expand its timing while it seems that Leon desire at all costs to close the negotiations before end of his term but it can lead to better results.
The strategy to involve as many stakeholders as possible in the negotiations and make them part of the future Libyan state structure is essential not only to increase government of national unity legitimacy, but also to have a para-military force able to to challenge both threats of Salafi and organized crime that operates trafficking.
Moreover, in view of a possible pacification/stabilization mission, any coalition of forces that will be called to work in Libya will also rely on support of local armed component capable of ensuring both local communities and local knowledge supports. The urgency of such measures and initiatives is also dictated by possible expansion of Bayda Caliphate with its model of Islamic state for Libya.
Monday, 26 October 2015
Europe & Libya: 4 YRS AFTER GADAFI DEATH
Europe & Libya: 4 YRS AFTER GADAFI DEATH: How Libya without the "dictator" Gaddafi? According to all points of view in Libya's post-Colonel you live much worse than in...
4 YRS AFTER GADAFI DEATH
How Libya without the "dictator" Gaddafi? According to all points of view in Libya's post-Colonel you live much worse than in the past and above all peace seems far away with a country divided between armed gangs and at least three powers: that of Tobruk, to Tripoli and that Muslim gangs.
Strange but after Gaddafi fate, was not Libyans life supposed to be rosy and democratic?
Exactly four years ago, Muammar Gaddafi was lynched near Sirte by a band of "rebels", journalists and media tried to convince us ''rebels'' were good guys in blue jeans, thirsty for freedom and democracy helped by West to eliminate the evil tyrant.
Four years by the physical elimination of Colonel, friend of Mandela, however, the situation in Libya worsened rather than improved and there is no trace of democracy. But no one has any intention of doing mea culpa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mea_culpa, nobody's going to apologize for what has been decided in Libya, or to destroy overnight a legitimate government to destroy the country and basically unleash chaos.
Clearly, the chaos is useful for those who planned to get their hands on oil fields and the wealth of the country, and that is exactly what was done. In a country divided among four different powers, Tripoli, Tobruk, militias and Isis, the only ones who show themselves willing to fight Islamic extremists are members of Tobruk Parliament, they are also the only ones with an embargo by the West that materially impossible to combat the Isis.
Libya, prepared by the EU € 100 million for a government of national unity.
About prospects for peace with UN and EU which would like to support the "Government of National Unity" for the first 2 months of its life, but in the meantime West created a failed state, ideal for Isis appetites which West just provoked. West spread similar scenario to all the countries victims of West designs: Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Will it be a simple case? We think not; while the West offers good conscience trying to foster peace, there is no doubt that Islamic terrorists grow uncertain. And above all, it is Europe that has essentially wanted this scenario for Libya, because now would want to help? Gaddafi had made it clear that the only alternative to his government would be chaos and terrorism, but probably already knew all and it was exactly what they wanted to achieve by eliminating the Colonel and Libya.
Libya and Syria, "EU is afraid of the truth on the influx of refugees"
In four years of civil war it has emerged as with all its faults Gaddafi had also done a lot of good for his people, and now that Gaddafi has been removed none of the above defects of the North African country has been resolved. Indeed there are now thousands of people armed and out of control as well as an endless influx of refugees, however, also foretold its Colonel.
In short, we were made to believe that we were against Gaddafi as against both dictators and democracy, but four years after that infamous operation we can say that reason to eliminate any Gaddafi certainly was the will to do pretty good for Libya, unless you consider as result the "democracy" which allowed radical jihadists to have citizenship in Libya with even their aspiration to govern the country, which is a little bit what was going to happen before Russian military intervention in Syria.
Evidently it was better to put a tombstone over the claims of Gaddafi for Africa future and his idea to create an African currency in order to overcome the chains of debts to West.
No coincidence perhaps had too much interest in eliminating a man with all his enormous flaws who had the merit of not bending to imperialism. Not surprisingly, the "Gaddafi" uncomfortable was not only so much Berlusconi bunga bunga and parties as the man who loved to talk with old friend Nelson Mandela. In any case, the only thing almost with certainty is that whatever was the reason for West to eliminate him, it certainly was not the desire to help "democracy" in Libya.
How is Libya without the "dictator" Gaddafi? According to all points of Libyans and foreigners views, Libya after Colonel is much worse than in the past and above all peace seems far away with a country divided between armed gangs and at least three powers: Tobruk, Tripoli and Daesh.
Strange but after Gaddafi fate, was not Libyans life supposed to be rosy and democratic?
Exactly four years ago, Muammar Gaddafi was lynched near Sirte by a band of "rebels", journalists and media tried to convince us ''rebels'' were good guys in blue jeans, thirsty for freedom and democracy helped by West to eliminate the evil tyrant.
Four years by the physical elimination of Colonel, friend of Mandela, however, the situation in Libya worsened rather than improved and there is no trace of democracy. But no one has any intention of doing mea culpa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mea_culpa, nobody's going to apologize for what has been decided in Libya, or to destroy overnight a legitimate government to destroy the country and basically unleash chaos.
Clearly, the chaos is useful for those who planned to get their hands on oil fields and the wealth of the country, and that is exactly what was done. In a country divided among four different powers, Tripoli, Tobruk, militias and Isis, the only ones who show themselves willing to fight Islamic extremists are members of Tobruk Parliament, they are also the only ones with an embargo by the West that materially impossible to combat the Isis.
Libya, prepared by the EU € 100 million for a government of national unity.
About prospects for peace with UN and EU which would like to support the "Government of National Unity" for the first 2 months of its life, but in the meantime West created a failed state, ideal for Isis appetites which West just provoked. West spread similar scenario to all the countries victims of West designs: Libya, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Will it be a simple case? We think not; while the West offers good conscience trying to foster peace, there is no doubt that Islamic terrorists grow uncertain. And above all, it is Europe that has essentially wanted this scenario for Libya, because now would want to help? Gaddafi had made it clear that the only alternative to his government would be chaos and terrorism, but probably already knew all and it was exactly what they wanted to achieve by eliminating the Colonel and Libya.
Libya and Syria, "EU is afraid of the truth on the influx of refugees"
In four years of civil war it has emerged as with all its faults Gaddafi had also done a lot of good for his people, and now that Gaddafi has been removed none of the above defects of the North African country has been resolved. Indeed there are now thousands of people armed and out of control as well as an endless influx of refugees, however, also foretold its Colonel.
In short, we were made to believe that we were against Gaddafi as against both dictators and democracy, but four years after that infamous operation we can say that reason to eliminate any Gaddafi certainly was the will to do pretty good for Libya, unless you consider as result the "democracy" which allowed radical jihadists to have citizenship in Libya with even their aspiration to govern the country, which is a little bit what was going to happen before Russian military intervention in Syria.
Evidently it was better to put a tombstone over the claims of Gaddafi for Africa future and his idea to create an African currency in order to overcome the chains of debts to West.
No coincidence perhaps had too much interest in eliminating a man with all his enormous flaws who had the merit of not bending to imperialism. Not surprisingly, the "Gaddafi" uncomfortable was not only so much Berlusconi bunga bunga and parties as the man who loved to talk with old friend Nelson Mandela. In any case, the only thing almost with certainty is that whatever was the reason for West to eliminate him, it certainly was not the desire to help "democracy" in Libya.
How is Libya without the "dictator" Gaddafi? According to all points of Libyans and foreigners views, Libya after Colonel is much worse than in the past and above all peace seems far away with a country divided between armed gangs and at least three powers: Tobruk, Tripoli and Daesh.
Friday, 23 October 2015
Libya, what will happen after rejection of Tobruk & Tripoli frm
frm http://formiche.net/2015/10/22/libia-negoziati-onu-tobruk-tripoli/ in Italian
stalemate in Libya continues, subject which was discussed yesterday in Italian Supreme Defence Council which met Head of State. After another stop to negotiations led UN envoy Bernardino León , the Spanish diplomat spoke Wednesday at a press conference in Tunis, before 1 day of the new expiry of its mandate. "There
is no alternative," he said, in a government of national unity",
warning that ''a minor group and people will not be able to hold
this process as its hostage."
LAST STOPThe reference is to what happened in recent days, when both GNC (the old Parliament of Tripoli) and Tobruk Assembly (recognized b international community), have rejected UN proposal. An opposition that the diplomat believes instrumental, because parties, "have not been able to formulate any counter proposals", but expressed "a simple no."
ALARM OF ITALIAN SUPREME COUNCIL OF DEFENSE
Libyan chaos (and the risk of terrorist infiltration in our country) has been a major theme of last Supreme Defence Council held under the chairmanship of President oh Italy . During the summit, said today Corriere della Sera, has shown that we face "a framework of international relations and security in rapid and significant deterioration in areas very close to Italy and to Europe and the Near East ", mainly because of Isis blacks drapes. "Major concerns", also notes the newspaper, directly addresses the "chaotic situation" that reigns in the former kingdom of Muammar Gaddafi. "Yesterday, Italian Supreme Council of Defence, it was clear ... the disappointment at the lack of peace" (because, still detects Nese, had already been chosen General Paolo Serra to play the military adviser role. Here his portrait ).
ANALYSIS Toaldo
For Mattia Toaldo, analyst at European Council on Foreign Relations in London, the line of León coincides with that of Rome. "The Leon conference," said to Formiche.net, "sent a signal similar to statements made yesterday by Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni: the only option is that agreement. Given the expiration of its mandate, yesterday the House of Representatives, the Libyan government that will receive international recognition that will be released from the agreement, when there will be. Which means that without international recognition Tobruk cannot administer from now on Libya financial resources. "new situation, which could speed up negotiations''. "our Foreign Ministry," adds Toaldo, "has made clear that the decision of Parliament of Tobruk on Monday night was not really a vote against the agreement. The problem, however, is that from Tripoli to Tobruk armed groups are exerting pressures far too great for Members to vote freely ".
LEON PLAN
For the emissary, that unless new renewal of the mandate will be replaced soon by German Martin Kobler , the disappointment is high. His plan, noted Republic, provided "a Presidential Council" with the words "of designed PM, Fayez Sarraj , 3 deputy prime minister and two ministers of state. " But before new bankruptcy, Brussels and UN headquarters meditate now to apply alternative measures of economic nature, that force the factions to reach an agreement. "It is not clear," says the newspaper, "if parties approve the Libyan government" proposed, "in many meetings EU and UN for months to have addressed the issue of targeted sanctions against those who want to the failure of the peace plan ". However, before making such a drastic resolution in the coming days, UN will try again to find a "spontaneous", agreement as Leon explained .
IN CASE OF AGREEMENT
Reign of Muammar Gaddafi, slipped into a civil war fuelled by violence and terrorism, alsoin consideration of uncertaintyfor future immediately after the agreement is reached. In this sense, the Libyan situation is closely monitored by EU and NATO. Monday, says to Ansa press agency, Federica Mogherini, chief diplomat in Brussels, she submitted to EU Political Committee for security and defense (COPS), a plan to support the country stabilization. "In 10 pages of explanatory information to the Member States - tells the news agency -, it was reiterated the package availability of 100 million € for a series of programs, which include aid to rebuild the public administration, but also for health and media. "In this EU document, commitments to security are timetabled in three different phases. At the very beginning after possible establishment of government of national unity, is expected to be UNSMIL to conduct initial coordination for security of international mission of assistance, if politically acceptable to Libyans, to be deployed. It remains the challenge of how to provide better support for Government of National Unity security in its first weeks of life. A third and final phase would consist of planning and implementation of long-term assets for the reform of the security sector, disarmament and demining. "Operational planning was entrusted to Italy''.
NATO PLAN While Atlantic Alliance, which at this time will exercise in Mediterranean in an anti Isis (also to send a signal to Moscow) operation, has faced in last summit also "challenges" concerning its South Side, which includes Libya. In particular, said the US Ambassador at NATO, Douglas Lute , "South and South East NATO is implementing efforts to work for defense capacity-building with Jordan and Iraq," and is "waiting to make same thing with North African state, when the political situation allows it." That is, when UN negotiation will produce the expected results.
LIBYA: MATTERS TO KNOW
After
21st October 2015, the Council of Deputies (CoD) based in Tobruk and Bayda
will see its legal mandate expire because its extension was technically
invalid.
The CoD voted to extend its own mandate on October 5, but the
extension can only be validated by referendum.
As the only elected body
in the country, the Parliament constitutes the
internationally-recognised government of Libya.
However, the 2014
elections were widely boycotted and then declared null and void by Supreme Court as - just 20% of the electorate
participated instead minimum 45% - and the CoD was later forced out of Tripoli by Islamist
militias.
Not only do some militias still hold Tripoli, they back the
General National Congress (GNC) as legitimate Libyan government.
The mandate of the GNC expires in 2016.
What you need to know:
-
Originally, UN hoped to establish a unified government in Libya by October 20 2015. The peace talks have exceeded past deadlines, while both parties remain ‘optimistic’ that it’s possible to reach an agreement.
-
Both the two Libyan governments have expressed scepticism of the UN proposal for a national unity government. The October 20 deadline was set to be missed without any deal emerging from the peace talks.
-
After 12 months of negotiation, Libya remains divided between two rival governments and a host of armed groups. Ahead of the deadline both the CoD and the GNC reasserted their claims to Libya’s sovereign wealth fund controlled by LIA (Libyan Investment Authority) worth an estimated €70 billion.
-
During the Libyan civil war, over 1,500 militias have emerged and continue to compete with one another. Due to the conditions in Libya, the UN estimates 2 million people require some form of protection and humanitarian aid.
Wednesday, 21 October 2015
LIBYA SHORT SUMMARY & COMMENTS ABOUT PRESENT AND (RECENT) PAST
The dictator's legacy has consigned oil-rich Libya to anarchy
with no end in sight
The embarrassing truth is that average Libyans were better off
- more secure in their places, much more likely to be able to make a decent
living, less likely to have their heads blown off at supermarket -
while living under the reign of despot, mass murderer Muammar Gaddafi than today.
"Gaddafi chose to build the idea of a state around his
personality'' Ousted and slain in October 2011, "he used military funded by oil to crush any opposition to himself instead of building state institutions that could survive beyond him".
Libya, a largely tribal nation, descended into chaos after Gaddafi's fall, with two governments vying for power and armed groups battling for control of its vast energy resources.
A militia alliance that includes radical Islamists overran Tripoli in August 2014, establishing a government rivalling that of the internationally recognised administration, which was forced to flee to eastern Libya.
12 months of UN-brokered talks to persuade the warring sides to agree to a peace deal and form a national unity government have run aground with a failure so far.
Taking advantage of the chaos, the Islamic State terrorist group has gained a foothold in Libya and people-smugglers are again ferrying illegal migrants from its shores to Europe on rickety boats and contributing to thousands of deaths. But the focus remains on Gaddafi, the flamboyant strongman who called himself "Guide of the Revolution" and declared Libya a Jamahiriya or "state of the masses" run by local committees.
"He will make headlines for a long time because the regime he consolidated will need a long time to be undone," an official of the Tripoli-based government said.
"He pitched tribes and regions and different ethnic groups against one another for decades, which is why Libyans and international community are struggling to create a national unique identity now". Ancient Roman emperors said ''divide et impera'' translated divide & (better) rule
"We used to be afraid even to look at his compound,"
"A generation will pass before we can overcome the fear he instilled in us. But we were much more secure and rich"
many Libyans say.
Tuesday, 20 October 2015
Europe & Libya: REAL NATIONAL UNITY GOVT AGREEMENT IN LIBYA ?
Europe & Libya: REAL NATIONAL UNITY GOVT AGREEMENT IN LIBYA ?: many readers might think that we lost sight of the evolution of last three weeks diplomatic games which aim(ed?) to allow Libya to have ...
Monday, 19 October 2015
REAL NATIONAL UNITY GOVT AGREEMENT IN LIBYA ?
many readers might think that we
lost sight of the evolution of last three weeks diplomatic
games which aim(ed?) to allow Libya to have a National Unity govt which overcomes the divisions that now exist between the two governments for control of Libya.
But it is not so. We closely followed the negotiation rounds which have taken place in Morocco, Switzerland, Algeria and NY, followed with latest UN Bernardino Leon statement of a framework agreement.
Italian government, through its Foreign Minister, P. Gentiloni, said no more than five days ago that not only the agreement in Libya had been reached, but that as soon as it is signed, Italy was ready to help Libya (and new National Unity govt) to regain full control of its territory using even armed force of Italian Republic.We followed carefully Libyan situation and relevant official statements. The former always seemed much less optimistic and much more complex than reported by UN.
We must start from simple thought: Libyans majority has neither national interest nor national unity concepts.
In Libya there are dozens of important tribes and for most of them only objective is rewarding the power of tribe itself and not the country welfare as a whole.
It is naive to think that an agreement based solely on a division of power, such as that proposed by UN, can pacify Libya.
Each tribe is aware of its importance, natural resources or its geographical position therefore any tribe will not allow that a rival tribe benefits of its own resources.Libyan alliances are often with variable geometry and they are not so based by a long-term strategic vision but based on their assessments of "military weight" of this or that tribe.In Libya today the struggle to gain room for smaller tribes, increasing their "military weight", has never stopped and foreign sponsors working in Libya (i.e. Gulf countries, Egypt, Turkey and recently Iran) continue to fuel a flow of money and arms act to strengthen the tribes close to them and try to make them an ally in relevant areas.In our opinion this flow of funds and weapons will not stop by National Unity govt creation as many foreign powers operating in Libya would see negate their influences on this land rich with energy and with strategic geographic position.
In the case that Libyans think (it never happened except during Gaddafi iron fist) as one people, the agreement would be not only diplomat but real otherwise only an illusion of peace.It is necessary to interrupt the flow of weapons and money coming to Libya NOT for country development but only to fuel civil war.
To reach a diplomatic and real settlement in Libya, the tribes chieftains must understand and accept the stop of weapons and money flows.
Then only way is to carry out careful checks on every ship, plane, raft or boat approaching Libya, and at the same time stop the flow of money that tribes get by immigrants traffic.But no one in the West has the courage and the determination to implement a Libyan airspace and territorial waters "quarantine", mostly because of White House position, always reluctant to use the military instrument even when it is absolutely indispensable, except then despair after despair to UN General Assembly for geopolitical vacuum.The similar geopolitical vacuum observed in Persian or Arab Gulf, Western Pacific, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Syria (and soon Iraq) geopolitical vacuum has been filled by Russia, by China in the Pacific, by Taliban in Afghanistan followed soon by Islamic Caliphate silent in these days, and even more in the case of false agreement of National Unity Govt tomorrow, will emerge as catalyser for thousands of Libyans in search of well-being but not the power.
But unlike Syiria, in Libya, there is no army, legitimate or not, whch can oppose to DAESH terror and its feudal organization. Then who will be able to extinguish many Libyans power thirsty during country consolidation?
But it is not so. We closely followed the negotiation rounds which have taken place in Morocco, Switzerland, Algeria and NY, followed with latest UN Bernardino Leon statement of a framework agreement.
Italian government, through its Foreign Minister, P. Gentiloni, said no more than five days ago that not only the agreement in Libya had been reached, but that as soon as it is signed, Italy was ready to help Libya (and new National Unity govt) to regain full control of its territory using even armed force of Italian Republic.We followed carefully Libyan situation and relevant official statements. The former always seemed much less optimistic and much more complex than reported by UN.
We must start from simple thought: Libyans majority has neither national interest nor national unity concepts.
In Libya there are dozens of important tribes and for most of them only objective is rewarding the power of tribe itself and not the country welfare as a whole.
It is naive to think that an agreement based solely on a division of power, such as that proposed by UN, can pacify Libya.
Each tribe is aware of its importance, natural resources or its geographical position therefore any tribe will not allow that a rival tribe benefits of its own resources.Libyan alliances are often with variable geometry and they are not so based by a long-term strategic vision but based on their assessments of "military weight" of this or that tribe.In Libya today the struggle to gain room for smaller tribes, increasing their "military weight", has never stopped and foreign sponsors working in Libya (i.e. Gulf countries, Egypt, Turkey and recently Iran) continue to fuel a flow of money and arms act to strengthen the tribes close to them and try to make them an ally in relevant areas.In our opinion this flow of funds and weapons will not stop by National Unity govt creation as many foreign powers operating in Libya would see negate their influences on this land rich with energy and with strategic geographic position.
In the case that Libyans think (it never happened except during Gaddafi iron fist) as one people, the agreement would be not only diplomat but real otherwise only an illusion of peace.It is necessary to interrupt the flow of weapons and money coming to Libya NOT for country development but only to fuel civil war.
To reach a diplomatic and real settlement in Libya, the tribes chieftains must understand and accept the stop of weapons and money flows.
Then only way is to carry out careful checks on every ship, plane, raft or boat approaching Libya, and at the same time stop the flow of money that tribes get by immigrants traffic.But no one in the West has the courage and the determination to implement a Libyan airspace and territorial waters "quarantine", mostly because of White House position, always reluctant to use the military instrument even when it is absolutely indispensable, except then despair after despair to UN General Assembly for geopolitical vacuum.The similar geopolitical vacuum observed in Persian or Arab Gulf, Western Pacific, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
Syria (and soon Iraq) geopolitical vacuum has been filled by Russia, by China in the Pacific, by Taliban in Afghanistan followed soon by Islamic Caliphate silent in these days, and even more in the case of false agreement of National Unity Govt tomorrow, will emerge as catalyser for thousands of Libyans in search of well-being but not the power.
But unlike Syiria, in Libya, there is no army, legitimate or not, whch can oppose to DAESH terror and its feudal organization. Then who will be able to extinguish many Libyans power thirsty during country consolidation?
Thursday, 15 October 2015
Europe & Libya: UN and world last hope 20.10.2015
Europe & Libya: UN and world last hope 20.10.2015: UN thought it had a peace agreement on the 10 th October 2015 but that has since proved overly optimistic. The latest round of peac...
UN and world last hope 20.10.2015
UN thought it had a peace agreement on the 10th
October 2015 but that has since proved overly optimistic.
The latest round of peace talks were thought to have addressed all the problems that have arisen in several months of negotiations.
Unfortunately and most likely it did not.
UN is now demanding that Tripoli government get its dissident factions under control and agree to the terms for uniting the two governments or else. The UN wants the two governments to merge and then use their combined forces to deal with ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and other groups threatening the economy (especially oil shipments) and the country in general.
UN is unlikely to completely give up on Libya as the recent deadline is ignored and the two rival governments know it. Next deadline is 20th October .
Main motivation the two governments have to merge is the growing likelihood that there will soon be mass starvation and even more chaos, death and people fleeing the country. Libya is running out of cash and options but still has plenty of factions willing to risk more damage in an effort to get their way.
The violence since 2011 has left over 32,000 dead and a fourth of the population has fled the country, most of them to neighboring Tunisia.
Most of people who left their country are the educated and talented Libyans, the country needs most. This has made it difficult for the Tripoli and Tobruk governments to find qualified people to fill senior posts.
The UN thought it had a peace agreement on the 8th October but that has since proved overly optimistic. The current round of peace talks were thought to have addressed all the problems that have arisen in several months of negotiations.
It did not.
UN is now demanding that the Tripoli government get its dissident factions under contr0l and agree to the terms for uniting the two governments or else. The UN wants the two governments to merge and then use their combined forces to deal with ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and other groups threatening the economy (especially oil shipments) and the country in general. The UN is unlikely to completely give up on Libya as the recent deadline is ignored and the two rival governments know it.
Main motivation the two governments have to merge is the growing likelihood that there will soon be mass starvation and even more chaos, death and people fleeing the country. Libya is running out of cash and options but still has plenty of factions willing to risk more damage in an effort to get their way.
The violence since 2011 has left over 32,000 dead and a fourth of the population has fled the country, most of them to neighboring Tunisia.
The people most likely to leave are the educated and talented Libyans the country needs most. This has made it difficult for the Tripoli and Tobruk governments to find qualified people to fill senior posts.
Situation has gotten so bad that Tobruk government PM complains of being forced to serve and not being allowed (by the military) to leave Libya, even for official business. That mass flight was made easier because about 85 percent of Libya's six million people live along the coast. Some five percent are still nomadic. Other minorities comprise about six percent of the population. 100 percent of the population speaks Arabic and 98 percent are Sunni Moslems.
The Berber are Sunni but were never big on Islamic radicalism. Kaddafi saw the Berbers as a threat because they were not Arab and had, for over a thousand years, resisted Arab domination.
The fighting has interfered with oil exports and without that income the country is broke.
The country needs peace so that the oil facilities, the central bank and the network of government offices that pay government employees and import goods for distribution to most Libyans can function.
While not all Libyans support any one government or leader, most do support restoration of the Kaddafi era welfare system and the oil revenues that paid for it. This was an efficient way to distribute the oil income so that most Libyans benefitted from it. During the decades of Kaddafi rule Libyans became dependent on these benefits and are angry at anyone who is harming this system. The Islamic terrorist militias sense they are facing a real threat because of the widespread hostility they face from Libyans concerned about surviving without the oil income.
Another things that annoys most Libyans is the lack of unity among the Islamic terrorist groups, each of whom considers themselves the anointed (by God) leader of an Islamic renaissance.
This is a common pattern and the resulting feuds and outright wars between Islamic terrorist factions is a major reason why these groups rarely achieve much success. Too many of these Islamic terror groups are willing to interfere with, or even ban, free food sent in by foreign aid groups. Thus the locals see these holy warriors sending Libya straight to hell on earth.
Militias affiliated with ISIL are generally opposed to any peace deal that does not involve everyone agreeing to ISIL ruling all of Libya. Most other Islamic terror groups are at least open to negotiations and some kind of deal.
The country is running out of money with which to buy food and other essentials. Some 85 percent of the $67 billion the government has currently is frozen and the $10 billion that is available will be gone by mid-2016 if the two rival governments (UN recognized Tobruk and the previous one in Tripoli) do not agree to merge.
About 25 percent of the six million people left in Libya are in danger of injury from the violence or lack of food and other supplies. Many of these people have been driven from the homes and some are living in tents. A growing number have given up and fled the country.
Oil production is up to 350,000 barrels a day, which is 25 percent of the pre-revolution total of 1.7 million barrels.
At current prices that would bring in $23 billion a year, enough for the country to survive on but not live as comfortably as they did when oil was selling for more than twice what it does now. Since 2011 the violence has not hurt the oil fields and the oil reserves (still in the ground) stands at 77 billion barrels (plus the equivalent of ten percent more in the form of natural gas).
Even if production returned to 2011 levels there would still be a problem with the price of oil, which has fallen by more than half since 2012 because of worldwide overproduction.
Another things that annoys most Libyans is the lack of unity among the Islamic terrorist groups, each of whom considers themselves the anointed (by God) leader of an Islamic renaissance. This is a common pattern and the resulting feuds and outright wars between Islamic terrorist factions is a major reason why these groups rarely achieve much success. Too many of these Islamic terror groups are willing to interfere with, or even ban, free food sent in by foreign aid groups. Thus the locals see these holy warriors sending Libya straight to hell on earth. Militias affiliated with ISIL are generally opposed to any peace deal that does not involve everyone agreeing to ISIL ruling all of Libya. Most other Islamic terror groups are at least open to negotiations and some kind of deal.
The country is running out of money with which to buy food and other essentials. Some 85 percent of the $67 billion the government has currently is frozen and the $10 billion that is available will be gone by mid-2016 if the two rival governments (UN recognized Tobruk and the previous one in Tripoli) do not agree to merge. About 40 percent of the six million people left in Libya are in danger of injury from the violence or lack of food and other supplies. Many of these people have been driven from the homes and some are living in tents. A growing number have given up and fled the country.
The latest round of peace talks were thought to have addressed all the problems that have arisen in several months of negotiations.
Unfortunately and most likely it did not.
UN is now demanding that Tripoli government get its dissident factions under control and agree to the terms for uniting the two governments or else. The UN wants the two governments to merge and then use their combined forces to deal with ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and other groups threatening the economy (especially oil shipments) and the country in general.
UN is unlikely to completely give up on Libya as the recent deadline is ignored and the two rival governments know it. Next deadline is 20th October .
Main motivation the two governments have to merge is the growing likelihood that there will soon be mass starvation and even more chaos, death and people fleeing the country. Libya is running out of cash and options but still has plenty of factions willing to risk more damage in an effort to get their way.
The violence since 2011 has left over 32,000 dead and a fourth of the population has fled the country, most of them to neighboring Tunisia.
Most of people who left their country are the educated and talented Libyans, the country needs most. This has made it difficult for the Tripoli and Tobruk governments to find qualified people to fill senior posts.
The UN thought it had a peace agreement on the 8th October but that has since proved overly optimistic. The current round of peace talks were thought to have addressed all the problems that have arisen in several months of negotiations.
It did not.
UN is now demanding that the Tripoli government get its dissident factions under contr0l and agree to the terms for uniting the two governments or else. The UN wants the two governments to merge and then use their combined forces to deal with ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and other groups threatening the economy (especially oil shipments) and the country in general. The UN is unlikely to completely give up on Libya as the recent deadline is ignored and the two rival governments know it.
Main motivation the two governments have to merge is the growing likelihood that there will soon be mass starvation and even more chaos, death and people fleeing the country. Libya is running out of cash and options but still has plenty of factions willing to risk more damage in an effort to get their way.
The violence since 2011 has left over 32,000 dead and a fourth of the population has fled the country, most of them to neighboring Tunisia.
The people most likely to leave are the educated and talented Libyans the country needs most. This has made it difficult for the Tripoli and Tobruk governments to find qualified people to fill senior posts.
Situation has gotten so bad that Tobruk government PM complains of being forced to serve and not being allowed (by the military) to leave Libya, even for official business. That mass flight was made easier because about 85 percent of Libya's six million people live along the coast. Some five percent are still nomadic. Other minorities comprise about six percent of the population. 100 percent of the population speaks Arabic and 98 percent are Sunni Moslems.
The Berber are Sunni but were never big on Islamic radicalism. Kaddafi saw the Berbers as a threat because they were not Arab and had, for over a thousand years, resisted Arab domination.
The fighting has interfered with oil exports and without that income the country is broke.
The country needs peace so that the oil facilities, the central bank and the network of government offices that pay government employees and import goods for distribution to most Libyans can function.
While not all Libyans support any one government or leader, most do support restoration of the Kaddafi era welfare system and the oil revenues that paid for it. This was an efficient way to distribute the oil income so that most Libyans benefitted from it. During the decades of Kaddafi rule Libyans became dependent on these benefits and are angry at anyone who is harming this system. The Islamic terrorist militias sense they are facing a real threat because of the widespread hostility they face from Libyans concerned about surviving without the oil income.
Another things that annoys most Libyans is the lack of unity among the Islamic terrorist groups, each of whom considers themselves the anointed (by God) leader of an Islamic renaissance.
This is a common pattern and the resulting feuds and outright wars between Islamic terrorist factions is a major reason why these groups rarely achieve much success. Too many of these Islamic terror groups are willing to interfere with, or even ban, free food sent in by foreign aid groups. Thus the locals see these holy warriors sending Libya straight to hell on earth.
Militias affiliated with ISIL are generally opposed to any peace deal that does not involve everyone agreeing to ISIL ruling all of Libya. Most other Islamic terror groups are at least open to negotiations and some kind of deal.
The country is running out of money with which to buy food and other essentials. Some 85 percent of the $67 billion the government has currently is frozen and the $10 billion that is available will be gone by mid-2016 if the two rival governments (UN recognized Tobruk and the previous one in Tripoli) do not agree to merge.
About 25 percent of the six million people left in Libya are in danger of injury from the violence or lack of food and other supplies. Many of these people have been driven from the homes and some are living in tents. A growing number have given up and fled the country.
Oil production is up to 350,000 barrels a day, which is 25 percent of the pre-revolution total of 1.7 million barrels.
At current prices that would bring in $23 billion a year, enough for the country to survive on but not live as comfortably as they did when oil was selling for more than twice what it does now. Since 2011 the violence has not hurt the oil fields and the oil reserves (still in the ground) stands at 77 billion barrels (plus the equivalent of ten percent more in the form of natural gas).
Even if production returned to 2011 levels there would still be a problem with the price of oil, which has fallen by more than half since 2012 because of worldwide overproduction.
Another things that annoys most Libyans is the lack of unity among the Islamic terrorist groups, each of whom considers themselves the anointed (by God) leader of an Islamic renaissance. This is a common pattern and the resulting feuds and outright wars between Islamic terrorist factions is a major reason why these groups rarely achieve much success. Too many of these Islamic terror groups are willing to interfere with, or even ban, free food sent in by foreign aid groups. Thus the locals see these holy warriors sending Libya straight to hell on earth. Militias affiliated with ISIL are generally opposed to any peace deal that does not involve everyone agreeing to ISIL ruling all of Libya. Most other Islamic terror groups are at least open to negotiations and some kind of deal.
The country is running out of money with which to buy food and other essentials. Some 85 percent of the $67 billion the government has currently is frozen and the $10 billion that is available will be gone by mid-2016 if the two rival governments (UN recognized Tobruk and the previous one in Tripoli) do not agree to merge. About 40 percent of the six million people left in Libya are in danger of injury from the violence or lack of food and other supplies. Many of these people have been driven from the homes and some are living in tents. A growing number have given up and fled the country.
Saturday, 10 October 2015
Europe & Libya: From Tobruk to Tripoli via Benghazi and Misrata, o...
Europe & Libya: From Tobruk to Tripoli via Benghazi and Misrata, o...: At least on one point Bernardino Leon managed to get some form of consensus between the two rival leaderships in Tobruk and Tripoli: both...
From Tobruk to Tripoli via Benghazi and Misrata, objection to UN mediator is similar. "He changed agreement terms last. No solutions imposed from above "
At
least on one point Bernardino Leon managed to get some form of
consensus between the two rival leaderships in Tobruk and Tripoli: both
reject firmly the formula for a national unity government. The
road still looks like an uphill struggle for the Spanish diplomat, who
for a year has been mandated by UN to act as mediator to resolve
Libyan crisis and lay the foundations for a strong central govt. Last night were held numerous events to contest his project.From
Tobruk to Tripoli, via Benghazi and Misrata, basic objection is
similar: not so much the content of the proposal of Leon, as his style
of negotiator. "he changed unilaterally the terms of the agreements at the last minute. We do not want solutions imposed from above" contest all parties.
A blow to European diplomacy, with Italian head (although in Washington skepticism on Leon had been expressed for some time), which in recent months had placed high hopes in his draft
Result seems obvious: Libyan crisis remains open and Leon does not seem capable to do much more. By October 20 his mandate should end; Leon is replaced with German Martin Kobler, who until now was head of the UN mission in Congo.
In Libya, one of most common comment is that just the need to hurry would push Leon to force the issue, with angry reaction of the already divided, varied and contentious faces of militias and Libyan tribes.
At heart of dispute would be the changes introduced by Leon announcement last night, when Morocco (where he met Libyan representatives) provided the names of new Unity Govt leaders, which absorbs both National Congress of Tripoli, linked to Muslim Brotherhood, and the parliament of Tobruk recognized by a large part of the international community
in fact since summer 2014 that Libya is torn between two warring governments. A situation that generates chaos among the hundreds of armed militias, promotes crime, blocking the national economy, paralyzing the activities of oil and gas, facilitates the penetration of Isis and violent jihadist groups. "This government will represent all Libyans finally, will be a new beginning!" He then said Leon in a fit of optimism. As well, the thrust harder against him came from Abdurrahman Sewehli, important exponent of Misurata, who has publicly rejected the offer to become chairman of the new Council of State, along with two deputy already appointed by Leon. "I was put in charge of an organism without power. These were not the terms, "said Sewehli to local television Al-Nabaa. It says in fact one of the agreements was that members of the new body would have to elect their leaders, which in turn would choose their employees. Signal of the crisis was also the announcement of Khalifa Haftar, the former general Gaddafi today defense minister in Tobruk, which has returned to promise belligerent that his soldiers "liberate Benghazi from fundamentalist militias within three weeks." A blow to the European diplomacy, with the Italian head (although in Washington skepticism of Leon had been expressed for some time), which in recent months had placed high hopes in its draft unitary government with patience and fabric determination UN envoy since the beginning of spring. The result seems obvious: the Libyan crisis remains open and Leon does not seem capable of being able to do much more. By October 20 should end its mandate and in its place is already expected the German Martin Kobler, who until now was head of the UN mission in Congo. In Libya, one of the most common comments it is that just need to hurry would push Leon to force the issue, engaging the angry reaction of the already divided, varied and contentious face of militias and Libyan tribes.At the heart of the dispute would be the changes introduced by the announcement of Leon last night, when Morocco (where he met Libyan representatives) has provided the names of the leaders of the new National Govt, which absorbs both National Congress of Tripoli, linked to Muslim Brotherhood, and Tobruk parliament recognized by a large part of international community.
Since summer 2014 Libya is torn between two warring govts. A situation that generates chaos among hundreds of armed militias, promotes crime, blocks national economy, paralyzes the activities of oil and gas, facilitates the penetration of DAESH (Isis) and violent jihadist groups.
"This government will represent all Libyans finally, will be a new beginning!''
Leon said in a fit of optimism.
First against him came Abdurrahman Sewehli, important exponent of Misurata, who publicly rejected the offer to become chairman of new Council of State, along with two deputy already appointed by Leon. "I was put in charge of an organism without power. These were not the terms" said Sewehli to local TV Al-Nabaa.
In fact one of the agreements was that members of new body should elect their leaders, which in turn would choose their employees.
Crisis signal was also Khalifa Haftar announcement, the former general Gaddafi today defense minister in Tobruk, who has returned to his belligerent promise that his soldiers "liberate Benghazi from fundamentalist militias within three weeks."
Inshalla tamam but hopes are not high.
A blow to European diplomacy, with Italian head (although in Washington skepticism on Leon had been expressed for some time), which in recent months had placed high hopes in his draft
Result seems obvious: Libyan crisis remains open and Leon does not seem capable to do much more. By October 20 his mandate should end; Leon is replaced with German Martin Kobler, who until now was head of the UN mission in Congo.
In Libya, one of most common comment is that just the need to hurry would push Leon to force the issue, with angry reaction of the already divided, varied and contentious faces of militias and Libyan tribes.
At heart of dispute would be the changes introduced by Leon announcement last night, when Morocco (where he met Libyan representatives) provided the names of new Unity Govt leaders, which absorbs both National Congress of Tripoli, linked to Muslim Brotherhood, and the parliament of Tobruk recognized by a large part of the international community
in fact since summer 2014 that Libya is torn between two warring governments. A situation that generates chaos among the hundreds of armed militias, promotes crime, blocking the national economy, paralyzing the activities of oil and gas, facilitates the penetration of Isis and violent jihadist groups. "This government will represent all Libyans finally, will be a new beginning!" He then said Leon in a fit of optimism. As well, the thrust harder against him came from Abdurrahman Sewehli, important exponent of Misurata, who has publicly rejected the offer to become chairman of the new Council of State, along with two deputy already appointed by Leon. "I was put in charge of an organism without power. These were not the terms, "said Sewehli to local television Al-Nabaa. It says in fact one of the agreements was that members of the new body would have to elect their leaders, which in turn would choose their employees. Signal of the crisis was also the announcement of Khalifa Haftar, the former general Gaddafi today defense minister in Tobruk, which has returned to promise belligerent that his soldiers "liberate Benghazi from fundamentalist militias within three weeks." A blow to the European diplomacy, with the Italian head (although in Washington skepticism of Leon had been expressed for some time), which in recent months had placed high hopes in its draft unitary government with patience and fabric determination UN envoy since the beginning of spring. The result seems obvious: the Libyan crisis remains open and Leon does not seem capable of being able to do much more. By October 20 should end its mandate and in its place is already expected the German Martin Kobler, who until now was head of the UN mission in Congo. In Libya, one of the most common comments it is that just need to hurry would push Leon to force the issue, engaging the angry reaction of the already divided, varied and contentious face of militias and Libyan tribes.At the heart of the dispute would be the changes introduced by the announcement of Leon last night, when Morocco (where he met Libyan representatives) has provided the names of the leaders of the new National Govt, which absorbs both National Congress of Tripoli, linked to Muslim Brotherhood, and Tobruk parliament recognized by a large part of international community.
Since summer 2014 Libya is torn between two warring govts. A situation that generates chaos among hundreds of armed militias, promotes crime, blocks national economy, paralyzes the activities of oil and gas, facilitates the penetration of DAESH (Isis) and violent jihadist groups.
"This government will represent all Libyans finally, will be a new beginning!''
Leon said in a fit of optimism.
First against him came Abdurrahman Sewehli, important exponent of Misurata, who publicly rejected the offer to become chairman of new Council of State, along with two deputy already appointed by Leon. "I was put in charge of an organism without power. These were not the terms" said Sewehli to local TV Al-Nabaa.
In fact one of the agreements was that members of new body should elect their leaders, which in turn would choose their employees.
Crisis signal was also Khalifa Haftar announcement, the former general Gaddafi today defense minister in Tobruk, who has returned to his belligerent promise that his soldiers "liberate Benghazi from fundamentalist militias within three weeks."
Inshalla tamam but hopes are not high.
Monday, 5 October 2015
Europe & Libya: ANALYSIS of MILITIAS & JIHADI GROUPS IN LIBYA 30.9...
Europe & Libya: ANALYSIS of MILITIAS & JIHADI GROUPS IN LIBYA 30.9...: 1,600 (?) armed groups active in Libya since the fall of Gaddafi. That's who contends the future of this country. Sin...
ANALYSIS of MILITIAS & JIHADI GROUPS IN LIBYA 30.9.2015
1,600 (?) armed groups active in Libya since the fall of Gaddafi. That's who contends the future of this country.
The regular Libyan army is well armed but not very organized and with little fighting desire. It consists of more than 35 brigades, some permanent, other multipurpose. The command is in the hands of General Khalifa Haftar , who led the Libyan troops in the war in Chad and refused to obey the order of Gaddafi blaming the defeat of his own soldiers. Haftar emigrated later in the USA, by renting a house on the Potomac close to both the CIA and the State Department. Which says a lot about his relationship with Washington.
The Libyan armed forces are equipped with excellent precision CZ99 pistols, produced by Serbian company Zastava and copied by Israeli KSC as Golan. Always come from Serbia: Zastava M21 rifles, an advanced copy of the AK 47 Kalashnikov submachine guns precise as Russians but adaptable to NATO caliber bullets; Zastava M07 sniper rifles, designed on the basis of the old Mauser 98, able to shoot over a kilometer depending on lens used; anti-tank rifles Zastava M93 Black Arrow, able to hit more than two kilometers away. Another assault rifle available regular Libyan army is the Belgian FNF2000, modern modular weapon Focus. It was, until recently, provided services Belgian and French.
The Libyans have access to many Soviet-made weapons, such as semi-automatic pistol TT-33. He could not miss the AK 47 assault rifle that the old, as they said the Soviet soldiers, "not jams ever." Among the assault rifles of Soviet origin are also the AKM (ancestor of the AK 47), the RPK (a rifle longest and accurate dell'AKM), the dshk (heavy machine guns), the gun PK, Deghtyaryov the light machine gun, machine gun multirole Zastava M84, Dragunov sniper rifles and Zastava M91 and M02 heavy machine gun Coyote.
As to tanks, Libyan army owns T-34, T-55, T-62 and T-72, all Soviet-made. The troop is managed with BTR-60, eight-wheeled armored. Models included are the small BRDM-2 (Soviet) tanks BMP-1, the most modern BMP-3 (also armed for the attack), the MIMR (pick up concrete product to Abu Dhabi, the Libyans do 169 still in service).
Regular Libyan army weapons also came from Italian companies (20 Puma Afv detectors with remote weapons) and US (200 old Humvee).
Libyan artillery is formed by Nora B-52 (Serb), the BM-21 multiple rocket launchers GRAD, Italian Palmaria (155 mm), from small portable rocket launchers Type 63, the bazooka Carl Gustav (84 mm), from lightweight rocket launchers M40 (American) and the 'anti M79Osa (Serbia).
The helicopters are available to the Serbs Pegaz 011 (Reconnaissance and Surveillance) and the Russians MilMi-14 (anti-submarine), I-17 (troop carrier) and I-24 (transport and attack).
(Tripoli, training of soldiers of the regular army of Libya)
The government of Tobruk can count on a number of departments of the security forces. The Directorate of National Security is the police force. It reports directly to Ministry of Interior, its commander is Mahmoud Sherif and operates with 9,500 elements with light armament of the Libyan army.
Even the Anti-Crime Unit responds to Interior Ministry. Along with Special Forces of Deterrence contrasts drug dealing and trafficking. Well armed with small arms, these two groups are each formed by 1,500 agents.
The Guard Facilities for the Oil consists of about 16 thousand items, which include small arms and, in some cases, pieces of heavy artillery. The body is connected to the eastern Libyan tribes. Its main task is to protect the oil fields (oil fields, refining plants and terminals).
Military forces loyal to the government of Tripoli
Fajr Libya (Libyan Dawn) , the armed force of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya, has 15 thousand items. Reports directly to the Islamist government in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Mohamed Khalifa Ghwail and expression of the General National Congress, former parliament restored in the capital. Alba is fighting against the Libyan army and Libyan contrasts offensives groups affiliated to the Islamic State in eastern Libya. It owns numerous heavy weapons (of the same type as those of the army of Haftar) and has at least 56 T-62 tanks, as well as numerous armed pickup.
In June 2015 it was announced the formation of a new coalition of armed militias, formally called "Face of Determination" but commonly known as "Libyan Dawn 2" . A notify was Saleh Badi, radical political figure of Measured and former member of the General National Congress. "Libyan Dawn 2" includes some militias of Misrata and part of those of Tripoli until recently allied Libyan Dawn. These include the brigade of the revolutionaries of Tripoli Haithan Tajouri, the brigade Nawasi Rada and the forces led by Abdul Rauf Kara, furniture Forces and members of the militia Fursan Janzur.
Armed militias
The Operations Room of the Libyan Revolutionary is a group pro Qaeda, author October 2013 of lightning kidnapping former PM Ali Zeidan. It collects various militias, all source or Salafi Al Qaeda and operates with 300 elements. It has several artillery pieces, many small arms (similar to those of the old Libyan army), a dozen T-72 tanks, of light transport vehicles, and Toyota MIMR.
Zintan Brigade is a group of 23 armed militias, all from Zintan and the Nafusa mountains. They are arrayed against both General National Congress (parliament Islamist Tripoli) and jihadist groups. They have a good chain of command which manages at least 5,300 elements led by former Navy officer Mukhtar Khalifa Shahub. Well armed, they have many tanks and several artillery pieces. From the time of Zintan Brigade operating in contact with the army of Khalifa Haftar and also own a satellite TV channel, Libya Al Watan . Connected to the Zintan Brigade is Brigadier Al Saiqa , the Libyan special forces unit. His militiamen are lightly armed. They have about ten Mi-21 helicopters. They also have a good network of devices of recognition-identification of the objectives of Soviet manufacture. Saiqa to work with 5,000 items and joined the armies of Haftar before May 2014, when General launched the '' Operation Dignity "against Islamist factions in Cyrenaica.
The Force Shield for Libya was founded in 2012, shortly after the fall of Gaddafi. He has structured relations with Al Qaeda. Shield-1 is related to the Shura Council of the revolutionaries in Benghazi, defined as a terrorist organization by the government of Tobruk. Shield Western fighting in the south and east of Tripoli and is connected to the leader of Al Qaeda Abd al-Muhsin al Libi, who was a member of the old jihadist group Libyan Islamic Fighting Group , which the regime gheddafiano through Al Saif Al Islam Gaddafi, had managed in terms of substantial support for the old government of Colonel. Shield Central is what won the Tripoli airport, has a total of 68 T-62 tanks and 35 T-72, largely acquired with initial funding of the central government. In total, it can count on 5,100 men.
Al Qaqa Brigade consists, according to reliable sources, as many as 18,000 fighters, is well supplied with small arms and artillery, but also deals with smuggling and drug trade, as well as kidnappings of politicians in the House of Representatives (parliament of Tobruk) despite being under the control of the Interior Ministry and has the task of protecting the members of parliament and the government led by Abdullah Al Thinni.
Sawaiq brigade is always originally from Zintan, composed of elements of Zintan residents in Tripoli, with 2,000 men, weapons and uniforms similar to those of the army of Haftar.
Brigades of Misrata are a group of about 40,000 items, with about 800 tanks, all Soviets, and over 2,000 light vehicles with artillery and anti-tank weapons.
The Brigade of 17 February Martyrs, explicitly Islamist and Salafist, operates with 12 battalions and is funded by Ministry of Defence of Libya. The military are at least 3,500. It has light and heavy weapons, a group of major focus with 12 T-72.
Jihadist groups Ansar Al Sharia , responsible for the killing of the American consul in Benghazi Christopher Stevens in 2012, was born as an offshoot of Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). It is composed of 15,000 well-armed men, with transport facilities consist of pickup with light artillery on board. Ansar Al Sharia in recent months has lost many of its militants, attracted by the emergence of an Islamic Caliphate in Libya and, above all, to pay and conditions of engagement clearly favorable. In late September categorically denied any alleged affiliation with Islamic State.
(ISIS April 2015Despite this defeat, its influence in Libya is growing steadily. Currently it controls Sirte, the hometown of Kadafi supporters, more than 200 kilometers coast from Sirte, Ben Jawad and Nawfaliya, an airport (Al-Ghardabiya), water distribution systems of Great Man Made River (through which fresh water comes from the Sahara to the coast), oil & gas. It is controversial at the time the presence of ISIS in Tripoli, where some of its subsidiaries have entered cells in contrast to the Libyan Dawn militias.
Among other jihadist groups more active there is Shura Council of Combatants of Derna, training revolutionary Libyan jihadist which is fighting against the Islamic State in its former stronghold.
COMMENTS ARE WELCOME
Europe & Libya: QUESTIONNAIRE LIBYA
Europe & Libya: QUESTIONNAIRE LIBYA: opinions, ideas, suggestions, comments REQUIRED for discussions about topics and their present & future roles in the country consid...
QUESTIONNAIRE LIBYA
opinions, ideas, suggestions, comments REQUIRED for discussions about topics and their present & future roles in the country considering factors such as
1. democracy/Islam2. very poor knowledge of democracy
3. present & future influences and roles of militias, political parties, kabailat, associations, society
4. representative or partecipation or mixed democracies
5. influences, roles, strategy and targets of UNO, EU, USA, Arab countries, Turkey, Russia
6. others & miscellaneous related to topics
Friday, 2 October 2015
After Libya destruction, has NATO chosen next target?
In Western analysis there are few mentions of the cause that has plunged the country into anarchy.
What will US-NATO do now in their strategy trying to prove that they can achieve an objective?
Stratfor is a Washington think tank that has high-level sources in US government. On September 19, its analysis entitled "instability of Libya threatens regional borders" concluded that there is "a quick fix or easy to manage threats to regional security Libyan ..." and that "contain the instability in Libya which will remain unlikely for the near future.''
Although it is undeniable that the chaos in Libya will continue, there is little mention of the cause that has plunged Libya into anarchy and turned it into a base for terrorist groups, including the Islamic state, analyzes Brian Cloughley the newspaper online of the Strategic Culture Foundation.
To be honest, the observations of Stratfor on Libya in September 2012 included the surprising comment that "NATO simply did not understand or did not care about the whirlwind that was unleashing" when it went to war in Libya in March of previous year, but US-NATO propaganda has convinced many people that their disastrous war in Libya has been a successful intervention in the cause of peace and stability.
US and NATO have reduced Libya in the mess described above but which has instead been presented by West as a military triumph, and hailed in 2012 by two US-NATO military figures in the foreground as a demonstration that "in every respect, NATO dis a gd job in Libya. "
These "fools" are Ivo H. Daalder, who was US representative to NATO, and Admiral James G. Stravridis, who was Supreme Allied Commander Europe and Commander of US European Command. They stated in Foreign Affairs that "NATO's operation in Libya has rightly been hailed as a model of intervention" and proclaimed that "the involvement of NATO in Libya has shown that the Alliance remains an essential source of stability."
Their pathetic foolishness, continues the author, it would be comical if it were not that their failure resulted in the destruction of a country to the point of international catastrophe.
Before the war, Libya was not a paradise. It was led by an autocrat, but he did a lot for his country and the vast majority of its citizens which was supported by US and Britain.
Exactly two years before the US-NATO war, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton welcomed the president's son Gaddafi in America, declaring: "I am very pleased to welcome Minister Qadhafi here to the State Department. We deeply appreciate the relationship between US and Libya. We have many opportunities to deepen and broaden our cooperation. And we are very eager to invest in this relationship. So, Mr. Minister, welcome’’
Why not? After all, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported in 2011 that "the country is providing comprehensive health care including promotion, prevention, treatment and rehabilitation services to all citizens free of charge through the primary care teams, health centers and district hospitals "and the CIA Factbook noted that Libya's Gaddafi had a literacy rate of 94.2%, higher than Malaysia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. Life expectancy was 72.3 years, among the highest in the developing world. Not bad for a country in the developing world, you might think.
But Gaddafi lost the favor of US-NATO military grouping, which (with the honorable exception of Germany) supported rebel groups willing to kill him, interpreting a UN resolution imposing a 'no-fly zones' as a 'authorization' to carry out air strikes across the country.
West turnaround attitude has of course nothing to do with the fact that Gaddafi mentioned the nationalization of his country's oil resources, at the expense of Western oil companies profits .
During their war in Libya US President Obama and British Prime Minister Cameron jointly they declared: "We are convinced that better times await the people of Libya," which was a prediction spectacularly wrong.
Obama and Cameron announced that "Colonel Gaddafi had to go. At that point, UN and its members would help the Libyan people to rebuild where Gaddafi had destroyed - to repair homes and hospitals, to restore basic services, and assist the Libyans, restore institutions to support a prosperous and open''.
But it was not only cruise missiles, bombs and rockets to destroy Gaddafi 'homes and hospitals ", power plants and basic utilities including some water networks.
According to WHO, the results of US-NATO bombing caused "shortages of food, fuel, water, medical supplies and electricity and reduced access to health care and public services ... The situation of women and children It has become particularly vulnerable, since hospitals are overwhelmed with trauma patients. "
What is the next target of NATO? Where will choose to impose this "intervention model" after the destruction of Libya and its humiliating defeat in Afghanistan?
NATO is desperately looking for a cause to justify its survival and is deploying more forces in east Europe.
US-NATO military coalition should however bear in mind the wise words of Brazil, China, India, Russia and even Germany (which, as mentioned above, refused to join Libya bombing), which warnedput UN from bombing consequences-
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)