Monday 9 November 2015

EU VIEW OF LIBYAN SITUATION 9.11.2015


EU approach to the Libyan crisis is to support the UN-led process to form a national unity government given the fact that the 28-member bloc is itself divided on how to deal with the problem.

According to Claudia Gazzini, senior analyst for think tank and EU consultant International Crisis Group said so far EU's approach to Libya has been to support the UN political dialogue process.
Since EU delegation or rep office for Libya, like those of most western countries, is no longer located inside the country so its physical absence from Tripoli "heavily undermines they ability to shape developments in Libya'' . Rosa Balfour, a senior fellow at EU consultant think tank German Marshall Fund, has similar views.
EU's formal policy to support the UN-led process is justified by the need to have a united position on Libya as well as to give backing to the only initiative which, even if it still has not produced an agreement in Libya, has offered some elements of hope, both of them said.

Brussels had vigorously supported the efforts of the outgoing UN special envoy for Libya, the Spanish diplomat Bernardino Leon, who initially was the EU special envoy to Libya.
Gazzini thinks that the recent appointment of a German diplomat Martin Kobler to replace Leon is very positive development but she views that a breakthrough is not on the horizon.
She noted that since his 1st announcement on
Oct. 8 for a proposed unity government line-up, Leon lost the trust of several important Libyan constituencies.
His last-minute changes to the agreement and his proposed government of unity line-up were not well received by the various constituencies that are part of the political dialogue process, said the European analyst.
"
Worse, recent scandal over his alleged ties to UAE has further damaged his reputation inside Libya. Therefore Kobler's arrival as head of UNSMIL is a welcome developmewhich could actually give new lease of life to the negotiation process," she said.
Kobler will have a tough job in rebuilding people's confidence in the process and no quick solution is in sight.


So no quick breakthrough on a unity government should be expected, they opine.

However, it is by no means clear whether this alone will create the incentives for the factions to reach a settlement, they noted.
EU has been offering incentives to the Libyans saying that if they form a unity government, EU states would consider a civilian or military mission to work on "demobilisation, disarmament, and reintegration" of local militias and also give a 100 million euro immediate financial assistance for Libya development.  


Libya was divided into two de facto states since 2014, one is the UN-recognized government based in Tobruk, and the other self-styled administration based in Tripoli.
Leon had brokered several meetings since his appointment in August 2014 between rival Libyan factions but last month hopes for the creation of a unity government
were dashed after the parties failed to sign on final draft of Libyan Political Agreement.
The immigration crisis for EU is another important factor linked with its Libyan policy.
The focus of the EU policy is to stop boats carrying African migrants from coming to European ports. EU also wants to set up processing centers in African countries itself to regulate the flow of refugees.
EU has organised a conference with African leaders in Valetta, Malta, on 11th November to find ways to stop the flow of migrants from Africa.
However, the two European experts think that EU naval operation is not enough to stop  flow of migrants from Libya. According to Gazzini, EU needs to implement a more organic policy to stem the arrival of migrants through Libya's southern borders and not limit itself to containing the flow from Libya's coast.

On her part, Balfour thinks EU's naval operation may have an impact on refugee flows departing from Libya, but will not have an impact on their flows to Europe.
She noted that experience has shown that closing one route usually leads to the opening of another one.
In absence of an Association Agreement with EU, Libya remains outside most of the structures of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP).
However, it is eligible for funding under the new European Neighbourhood Instrument (ENI) and the ENI's regional programmes.
EU's total initial help programme for Libya now stands at 108 million euro. It is focused on public administration, security, democratic transition, civil society, health and education.
EU's major defence and security mission EUBAM Libya was established in May 2013 to support Libyan authorities in improving and developing their capacity to enhance the security of their land, sea and air borders in the short term, and to develop a broader Integrated Border Management (IBM) strategy in the long term.
However, deterioration in security situation in Tripoli since July 2014 has led the temporary suspension of the mission

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