Wednesday 18 November 2015

Syrian conflict is akin more to 3rd World War?

The attacks in Paris can be seen as one of the consequences of conflict in the Middle East that begins to be labeled WWIII. In addition to the regional authorities, almost all the world powers are increasingly involved. In this war, economic interests are also at stake The West bears a great responsibility. Moral obsession with imposing democracy around the world has been a trigger.
The 21st century really started September 11, 2001, with the attack of the Twin Towers in NY. It has in the meantime almost forgotten but terrorist attacks have followed this tragic event, Bali, Madrid, London, Mumbai and few days ago in Paris. These acts were perpetrated by fundamentalist Muslims. President François Hollande said, and he is right, that France is now at war against terrorism. His speech was an echo of the September 11 by US President George W. Bush.
Western countries should therefore be careful not to repeat the mistakes made by US president of the time. After September 11, USA and Britain, under false pretenses such as the presence of weapons of mass destruction, launched a war in Iraq. It was also a war of retaliation following the events of September 11, when Iraq and its leader Saddam Hussein had nothing to do. But the neoconservative entourage of George W. Busch convinced that USA pursued a noble goal: Iraq could be transformed into a democracy by Western standards. This was a big disappointment and the country drifted into total anarchy.

    
"The regional war begins increasingly to resemble a Third World War"
But not letting descend, the neoconservatives remained convinced that the Middle East was to be released from his bloodthirsty dictators. The so-called Arab Spring - actually a revolt of the hungry at consecutive rising inflation in a number of North African countries - offered a new chance. Many Western politicians were convinced that the Arab world would adopt in the end the human rights, following the Western model. The MEP Guy Verhofstadt, among others, saw the emergence of a new democratic middle class, in analogy with European revolutions of 1848.
Again missed! A number of Arab leaders have seen in the uprisings and chaos in North Africa and the Middle East an opportunity to expand their regional power. The initially limited protests in Syria and Libya were funded by Saudi Arabia and a number of Gulf countries, Qatar first. It was not democratic opposition movements, but especially fundamentalist organizations could rely on the financial windfall rich Arab Gulf States.
There followed a proxy war between the two great powers of the region: Saudi Arabia and Iran. Two countries that are not by chance the main representatives of the two major branches of Islam: Sunni and Shia. Two trends already living for centuries in bad terms. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have seen in these revolts the opportunity to strengthen the power of the Sunnis in the region. For this, Shiite like Iran, Syria (President Assad belongs to Alawite Shia minority) and Hezbollah (Shiite political movement in Lebanon backed by Iran) had to be dismantled. In addition, the Gulf States wanted to get control over Syria, because this country is of crucial importance from a geopolitical point of view and more on the geo-economic plan. Syria is indeed the ideal transit country to the north to the massive gas supplies in Qatar.

    
"They are now exporting the regional war in the Middle East to Western Europe"
To build such a gas pipeline, but it was an ally regime came to power in Damascus and that Bashar al-Assad has passed. Thus, Saudi Arabia and Qatar supported all sorts of radical militias in the region. These militias arose uncontrollable monster: the Islamic State (IS). It was enough to do the dark region in chaos. Thanks to a sophisticated propaganda strategy, IS has also recruited large groups of young Muslims in Europe for their war through social media and through local recruiters. These young Muslims, who grew up in parallel societies suburbs of Paris, Brussels or London, were the new cannon fodder. Some of them returned to Europe after their participation in the conflict, and have carried out attacks. Jewish Museum in Brussels last year, in the drafting of Charlie Hebdo in January and now again in Paris. They exported the regional war in the Middle East to Western Europe. A 300 km from Brussels, Friday 13.
A difficult subject that nobody wants to address: Saudi Arabia and Qatar
This regional war looks more and more like a Third World War because all the major Western powers involved in it. Western Europe and the United States participated in the regional conflict suddenly distancing dictators, those the same with which they were connected for years. As President Ronald Reagan Americian said about dictators during the Cold War: "They are bastards, but they're our bastards."
Again, Western leaders have opted for a neoconservative discourse immediately rid of dictators, democracy will shine on the region. Bashar al-Assad should be excluded, as the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. It was mostly French President Nicolas Sarkozy who wanted the departure of Gaddafi. The reason is unclear, but it could have been a question Gaddafi funded Sarkozy's presidential campaign. Libya was bombed by a Western coalition, but was suddenly no longer a question of transition to democracy. Libya descended into anarchy.
Was President Bashar al-Assad about the fate of Gaddafi? Western European countries and USA have been hesitant because Assad had a powerful ally: Russian President Vladimir Putin. This supports the regime in Damascus for over a month now, with air attacks on rebel groups. Russia has a military base in Syria and do not want to lose it. Putin knows backed by another superpower: China.
Meanwhile, the Turkish President Erdogan is trying to take advantage of the chaos in the region to expand its power. And so, a kind of World War III is on the way, with the involvement of America. The United States are blowing hot and cold in the region. They want to get rid of the Islamic state, and yet they do not want to break with Saudi Arabia.
For in the whole geopolitical debate is the delicate subject that nobody wants to address: the financial supply lines of Muslim fundamentalism from countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. It is no more direct state support but funding from wealthy individual patrons. Apart from oil revenues, blackmail and even the sale of cultural treasures from Iran and Syria are the main sources of income of the Islamic State.Do not repeat past mistakes
How to act now? The impact of the conflict in the form of terrorist attacks in Europe can only be contained if an agreement is reached between all parties in order to stop the Islamic state and stabilize the region. It's a good thing that there is reconciliation between former rivals: both the United States, Russia and Western Europe that Iran, which is no longer an outcast. The Gulf States are already for some time in consultation. If there is a solution, it will have to be a diplomatic nature. And yes, less attractive personalities will also be involved, as Assad.
As it is to avoid the mistakes of the past. The search for a diplomatic solution does not rule out military action against the Islamic State. But these operations should in this case have the support of all the major powers in the region, and if necessary obtain the consent of the UN Security Council.

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