Sunday 29 November 2015

Kobler UNSMIL Head finally issued an update on Libya dialogue progress

Kobler along with many in the international community have been pressuring both the internationally-recognized House of Representatives (HoR) based in Tobruk and General National Congress (GNC) based in Tripoli to sign on to UN-brokered Libya Political Agreement (LPA) and to the names suggested by UN for the Government of National Accord (GNA).
Bernardino Leon, had been doing precisely the same thing, without success, until he was replaced by Kobler on November 17th. Kobler so far has achieved exactly the same result although, as with Leon, he gives an optimistic spin to events.
In his release, Kobler says that he: .. welcomes the recent declaration by 92 members of the House of Representatives endorsing in principle LPA and the proposed Presidency Council of GNA. Astonishingly, Kobler does not mention the fact that HoR did meet to vote on the LPA the other day but after a fight the meeting was suspended with no vote.
Kobler claims that 92 HoR members endorsed the LPA "in principle". However, in fact they reject the LPA as it is at present and Kobler claims it cannot be changed.
As Libya Herald reported: However, they also effectively said that there could be no changes in the leadership of the Libyan National Army (LNA) in other words General Khalifa Hafter and that names announced by Bernardino Leon for the proposed presidency council needed modifications. Keeping Haftar on as commander in chief of LNA is a red line for GNC and no doubt others as well. This would also contradict the present draft that has GNA senior members acting in the role of commander in chief not Haftar.
For Kobler to ignore such basic facts is astonishing unless perhaps he and international community are planning to support Haftar and his fight against Islamists after not too long ago naming him as a subject of sanctions, a threat never carried out it seems: Two military leaders in the east of Libya, who say their forces will not respect any peace accord, also face sanctions.
They are General Khalifa Haftar, commander in chief of eastern forces and air force head Sagher Jarroushi. Haftar has the support of Egypt, UAE, Arab League, and recently signed a military agreement with Jordan all this as a new unity government is supposed to be coming in.
Kobler must know, as did Leon, that no political agreement is enforceable without a parallel military agreement between HoR forces and GNC, mostly Libya Dawn militia.
Leon at times said he was carrying on a parallel military dialogue. He did manage to have a number of militia groups sign on to LPA but never the two main forces of rival governments. He also managed to exploit a split between some Tripoli and Misrata militias by meeting separately with them in Misrata, without approval of central command in Tripoli.
Kobler says nothing about how he thinks he can have a unity government without an agreement among the military.
Is it because he is hoping to get Haftar on board? That seems highly unlikely but it is odd that Kobler says nothing about this situation even though he claims that security will be one of his main concerns. Kobler also welcomes what he says are "calls by majority of GNA members to reach a positive conclusion to dialogue process".
Note that he does not speak of GNC voting on or approving LPA. Nor does he say when GNC will meet to approve LPA.
The same is true of the HoR. Their meeting was suspended. When is it to resume?
Kobler makes no reference to the fact that GNC head has demanded several times an explanation of Leon hiring who left under a cloud because of a conflict of interest.
As the Herald reports:Nuri Abu Sahmain,GNC president, has again refused any contact with UNSMIL until he has an answer from UN Secretary General about Leon conduct and his new job working for UAE .
Nevertheless Kobler has the backing of numerous countries for a project that seems doomed even in the unlikely scenario that both parliaments do accept the LPA.
This international cheerleading was evident during Leon's tenure with a meeting at UN in NY with dialogue participants.
It carries on: The Governments of Algeria, France, Germany, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, UAE, UK and US welcome the statement of support for GNA in Libya signed by the majority of HoR members on November 24 and note that a majority of GNC members in Tripoli also stand firmly in support of GNA.
Note that Egypt is not a signatory. No indication in the statement that in fact neither of two parliaments have voted to support LPA or GNC. The statement leaves out the "in principle" qualification UN statement had.
It is also mistaken in that  92 members are not a majority as there are 188 seats in HoR.
The signed statement was also issued before the meeting.
It is not clear how many who signed even came to the meeting. The majority spoken of in GNC may refer simply to the fact that they favour GNA but not the one being presented by Kobler.
In fact GNC has made it crystal clear they want amendments.
Kobler says no changes can be made to the text of even the names presented for GNA. Kobler's report gives little evidence of progress and says nothing about what steps he now intends to take given that both parliaments again are refusing to even vote on LPA.

No comments: